I was one of the first hike leaders in the Club to lead a group hike after the world changed, and I appear to be the last for awhile. We normally do a Wednesday hike up Spencer Butte, meeting as a group at the bottom, and hiking up 3 miles with 1400’ elevation gain. Several usually walk up together, although I go ahead if I can, using the hike as both conditioning time and as alone time, unless I end up being the Pied Piper with several breathing down my neck behind me but not passing. I hate that.
Anyway, social distancing comes naturally to me, since I have always been one of those who stands in a corner at a party, assuming I even go to one. As hike leader, I started by having the sign up sheet in my control, the bag for money several feet away on the ground ($1 per person), and as people came to sign in, I signed them up myself, had them drop the dollar in and start up the trail. I went last, which worked worked well. At the top, I had to dodge a couple of children who were running around and ask a few hikers to leave the larger group which had congregated up there. It’s difficult for many to avoid being close to another person. I’ve seen it in camping, where people camp near me despite having a lot of area to use, and in parking lots, where they park next to me when there is more room elsewhere.
On the way down, I was last, but I saw the front group too close together following one another. This is a bad habit on the trail, especially during this time. The Butte gets a lot of use, and somebody trying to pass a large group (it was once 18) has difficulty doing it when the front two are taking their time, and the people in the back just join in the parade. I’ve not been able to change that. I got back to the trailhead and left.
Later, I got a text from someone telling me the coffee shop was open. I didn’t answer. On the trip description, I told people what they did after the hike was their business. I should have been more forceful, recommending people not go to the coffee shop. That seemed obvious to me, but we are in a new era: right now, get food, medicine, or exercise. That’s it. Not socializing.
Pandemics have bookended both ends of my life. I remember dimly the polio ones of summers when I was a young boy; my brother caught it. Now I am old and have another RNA virus to worry about.
I walk daily in Alton Baker Park, where there are dirt and paved paths close together, the former for only pedestrians. The problem is that I see pairs of pedestrians, not likely living together, walking maybe 3 feet apart, leaving no space for me. If one doesn’t move behind the other, so I can pass, I have to step off and waiting or even going to the asphalt trail. It’s one of the few times I am less annoyed about unleashed dogs.
The suddenness at which I changed surprised me. On 10 March I tutored at the community college, only wiping down the desk, with close contact with several students. The next day, I went to a meeting with the board of the Cascade Volunteers, feeling a little uncomfortable in the room, sitting about 3 feet away from anybody else. Thursday, I did trail work, but two of us drove ourselves; others still carpooled. That day, 12 March, the world changed. Friday, I called in to the community college, saying I wouldn’t be coming. I went shopping that night, deciding not to wait another 12 hours, but I was what I would consider now “sloppy.” Between my age and my sex, I am high risk. I will not likely qualify for ventilator support should we run low on them. I am 14 days since the last time tutoring, 13 days since the last meeting, 4 days since I went to the UPS store. Counting to 14 matters a lot these days.
Counting the doubling time of cases and deaths matters, too. Increasing the doubling time is a quantitative way to see if we are flattening the curve. The number of cases in the US is doubling a little more than two days, although some of that is on the basis of more testing finally being done. I am watching doubling times carefully, because it is easy to do, and Increase Doubling Time is a quantitative way of Flatten the Curve.
Exponential growth doubling time per unit time is easy to learn. Divide 70 or 72 (easier to work with) by the time it takes to double, and one has the growth rate in per cent. Doubling every two days is a growth rate of 35%; Spain is at 4 days (18%).
Another way to look at it is that 29 consecutive doubling times are more than the US population, and right now we are between the 15th and 16th doubling times (32768 and 65536). At a continued rate every two days, in less than a month the whole country would be infected. If we push the doubling time back to 4 days, we would have closer to two months, same number of cases, but twice as much time to care for them, have more equipment, maybe have some anti-viral treatment.
I have a daily routine right now, and I was happy to see astronaut Scott Kelly suggest that. I learned last night that we can still exercise, so long as we stay apart from people. My park is perfect for that. I can walk four miles every morning, the hyacinths, Persian speedwells, wild cherries, and Oregon grape are in bloom. The song sparrows call; the redwing blackbirds are building nests. A Great Blue heron is at the canoe canal. Several are nesting upstream.
I just want to get through this time. My wife, the cats, a routine, math, and nature are all a big part of it.
Boreal B[l]og 
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