PREMATURE CHICKEN COUNTING


Social and other media have been abuzz the past few weeks about impeachment of the president, a display of both magical thinking and forgetfulness of with whom we are dealing.  In the same vein, the “resistance” is taking credit for things that perhaps are not worth crediting.  In short, while I support all steps that fight the current administration and run down the clock, I want to inject a harsh dose of reality into our lives, too.

I wouldn’t bet against the current president.  He survived insulting of McCain, the Pope and Ted Cruz’s wife, dissing a Gold Star family, giving away Graham’s phone number, and took apart not only the entire Republican field, but the Democrats as well.  He was shrewd enough to bring several of his rivals into his cabinet. He has gotten away with all of it, and other than a few brave judges slowing down some executive orders, is quietly moving to dismantle health care, give a big tax break to the wealthy, remove food stamps, Medicaid, Social Security, and Medicare, and all environmental restrictions.  Maybe this can be stopped, but I am not betting on it right now.

The rules have changed.  While the media is finally stepping forward with investigations into his ties and his campaign’s ties to Russia, already there are those who may find a way to weaken the investigation.  I’ve heard countless times of the dysfunction in the White House and how this can’t continue.  And yet it continues.  He can fire the current special counsel should he choose, like Nixon, more than 40 years ago, and there would be a huge outcry…but nothing to show for it, were I betting.

Despite all the transgressions the current president has made, his approval rating stubbornly remains in the mid to high 30s, back to 40% when we had our $90 million raid on Syria.  Oh, I read that the firing of Comey had a 29% approval rating, but the disapproval rating is today barely over 50%.  The president would get at least 40% of the vote were the election held today, and until or unless I see polling numbers in the 20s, I will not be impressed much has significantly changed.  It doesn’t matter that Mr. Obama ran a scandal-free administration, stymied every step of the way, had unproven conspiracy theories abound, and would have been impeached in a New York minute had he secret conversations with the Russians.  This president has the backing of the Republican Party, who sees more what they can get from him than what is right or wrong in the country. I heard before the election all the Republicans who weren’t going to vote for him. And they all did anyway.  I’m not sure what—if anything—will take this man down.  I suspect if something does, it may be a minor sleeper that takes everybody by surprise.

Currently, I am trying to unsubscribe from the voluminous number of emails I get from so many different groups.  Today was the Democratic Governor’s Association.  I fought the battle 10 years ago, back when Napolitano and Sebelius were still red state governors, until Mr. Obama’s ill-timed use of them in his cabinet.   If the Democrats were too stupid to realize what they needed to do, it isn’t up to me to be their money tree.  I’m retired.  It’s time for somebody else to step forward. I’m tired of losing, of candidates not wanting the national organization to come to their district, because national is out of touch, running candidates with high disapproval ratings who worry more about raising money than going to the heartland in all 50 states and just discussing matters like health care, defense, taxes, and trade.  I’ve had it with voters who demand perfection in race, gender, sexual orientation, medical plans, fighting terrorism, or they will stay home.  These same voters are getting creamed by this administration, and frankly a tax cut would be economically beneficial to me.  If they are too stupid to realize that only the Democrat can beat the president, not a Libertarian or a Green, and that down ballot measures like Congress and School Boards matter, then they deserve what they get.

Resist, yes.  But don’t think for a moment that the resistance killed the AHCA.  It didn’t kill it the first time, the Freedom Caucus did.  And whether the town halls will make a difference at the voting booth, I’m not optimistic right now.  People have short memories.  People are stupid, when they think “Obamacare” was different from the ACA.  I’d predict that if the AHCA became law today, the House wouldn’t change much in 2018. Nobody is protesting the lack of enforcement of the ACA, which is causing more insurers to pull out, the Blues now from the KC area.  Enforcement of the law is a presidential duty.  At least it was for a Democratic president.

Worse, it may be too late.  An estimated 300,000 in Wisconsin alone were disenfranchised because of harsh rules to vote.  It is more difficult to vote now, the districts were gerrymandered, the voting rights act was gutted, and now we are going to have a commission to look into voter fraud, most of the single digit cases of fraud being by Republicans.  In 2020, the census will be politicized, and minorities will be undercounted, underrepresented, and districts drawn by Republicans, because most of the states are run by Republicans now.  The Democrats in power were too busy doing—well, I don’t know what—while the Republicans took 1000 offices nationwide.

It’s not up to me.  If it were, I’d have mandatory national service, military out of South Asia, single payer health care, and a tax plan I’ve discussed here many times.

People would do well to cool it a little bit.  Nobody is going to impeach the president in a Republican run Congress.  Even if that happened, conviction would require two-thirds of the Senate, and other than an occasional feel good bill, there aren’t two thirds the votes for even free enemas in this country.  Maybe the guy will resign.  Or just quit.  Or die or get Alzheimer’s, assuming he doesn’t have that right now.  Then we get Pence, whom I would bet money that very few people in this country realized what those implications might be, because the media was so focused back then on the presidency.  Pence may be investigated too, but to count on that is counting a second generation chicken.

The media is helping uncover a lot of bad stuff now, true.  I’m glad that they are doing their job.  I can be forgiven for not being a fan of theirs when they gave untold amounts of free advertising to this president, who is a candidate still, with packed rallies and a lot of strong support, people who will vote.

I am remaining hopeful that something will end the darkness that has ensnared this country, but I do not underestimate the resiliency of this president, the desire of his party to keep him in office, and the damage he can do.  If one wants to have a feel good moment, that’s fine.  From time to time, we need one.  But it is important to be realistic, look at appropriate sources of news, fact check information, and stay realistic, focused on results, and keep reminding people why elections matter.

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One Response to “PREMATURE CHICKEN COUNTING”

  1. sally Says:

    I agree with everything you say. I’m tired of all the petty stories about Trump. They simply dilute any story that might actually bear some weight.

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