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THROWING OFF THE BOWLINES

April 26, 2016

“Twenty years from now, you will be more disappointed by the things you didn’t do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.”

Mark Twain

But be rational about it, remember to pay your debts, carry some form of health insurance, fund your retirement, and give back to society.

I admit it.  I’m jealous.  I’m jealous of the young guy with whom I hiked who had time and money to hike the three main N-S trails in the US: the Appalachian, Continental Divide, and the Pacific Crest Trails.  I’m jealous of those who have the time and money to travel the world, seeing places I will never see, doing things I will never do.  They have caught the trade winds in their sails, and they have explored, dreamed, and discovered.  I just wonder where they got the money and the time, how they are going to pay medical and other bills, how they are going to retire, and whether they are giving back to the world.  I never ask them, however, for it would be impolite. Besides, I might not like the answer.

Two years ago, I backpacked with a group in western Alaska.  One, 32, was a nurse who had been all over the world.  She made good money.  I made more at her age, but I back then didn’t feel then I could afford long trips.  Still, I knew almost nothing about her.  Another was a man who had a two month old back in England, and he was flying around the world alone, stopping at various interesting places.  After the backpacking trip, he was going to canoe in southeast Alaska. I needed to get home.

I didn’t ask where they got the time to throw off the bowlines.  I threw mine off for the first time in 1975 when the Navy ship I was on backed away from the mooring, turned the bow westward, and started steaming across the Pacific.  I saw a lot of things, mostly water, a young doctor—the only one on board—with a lot of responsibility and not nearly enough knowledge.  Back then, we had to serve in the military, and I was one of the fortunate ones who avoided combat duty.  But I still served, making good money, about $11,000 a year.  It wasn’t enough so I could bicycle the Silk Road, hike the Appalachian Trail, camp out on Easter Island, or take a year off to see Europe.  We had to serve, period.  Taking a year off cost money back then.  I think it still does.

Two decades later, a friend of mine was jealous of my traveling to South Africa for the 2001 eclipse.  I was 52, hardly young, and she and her daughter had not traveled much after they both had a month-long trip to Europe when her daughter was 21.  Why be jealous?  When I was 21, I was in college.  It would be eleven years before I saw Europe, and I was then in my first year of private practice.  First year.  At 32. I had debts to pay and a retirement to fund.  I couldn’t afford to stay long, and it would be a quarter century before I went back.

My generation didn’t have the chance to throw off the bow lines, except when the 1MC intercom on board blared, “Underway, Shift Colors.”

I didn’t have the opportunities that so many of the young today have, for I had to save enough, pay off debts, pay a mortgage and buy-in to the practice I had joined.  I was lucky.  I had no student loan debt, and the practice buy-in wasn’t onerous.  I was dealt different cards.

I was fortunate to live long enough to discover that I needed to get back into the outdoors more, so in addition to yearly trips to Zion NP to backpack, I started doing the same at the Grand Canyon.  In 1981, I took my first trip to the Boundary Waters in northern Minnesota, not returning for 5 years, but returning every year thereafter.

Most don’t get the breaks I did.  I took a leave of absence when I was 43 and volunteered for the Forest Service.  I didn’t go until I paid off the house, was debt free and had my retirement under control. After I returned, I slowly added each year to my portfolio of canoe trips in the US and Canada.  Along the way, I started chasing solar eclipses, the phenomenon’s dictating where I was going to visit.  I tried to see as many national parks as I could, one here, one there.  I discovered Alaska.

If you live long enough doing this, you see a lot of places in the world.  But you have to be fortunate.  You need a decent job—at least most of us—so you can have the money.  My philosophy is first things first:   We drove old cars, and our house, with all our cats, was not a place we invited people to visit.  We chose to have animals, but we chose not to have expensive toys.  Memories matter, so while I could have made more sooner,  I waited.  I wonder how many do that today.

Having voluntary military service helps.  Except not the country.  It is disturbing that a few serve multiple deployments and only one in eight of 25-34 year-old men is a veteran.  Half the men my age are.

As I entered into my 50s and 60s, I realized that my legacy to myself might be the places I had seen and camped, but my legacy to society was what I gave back.  Volunteering became important.  Still is.  I do have some skills that are useful at the Community College, so I help with math.  The hiking club needs leaders who organize hikes, the local planetarium occasionally needs somebody to do a show.

Explore.  Dream. Discover.  Yes, do all that, and do it when you can while you can, for there are no guarantees.  But remember that you also have to take care of yourself when you get old.  Many can’t.  I can afford to do this, and I can because I stayed in school a long time, worked long hours at a good job for which I was trained, and saved money.  I had the right genetics, too.  When I had time and sufficient money, I took it and used it.  I did what I could.

Every week, I update the calendar  with how many hours I volunteered.  I don’t know how much is enough, but I do what I think I can.  It’s my job to donate money, too, because I can, although I’d rather donate my time and my mind.  Few want the last.  Only the money, please.

If I live long enough and become crotchety enough, I may ask one of these younger folks how they got the money to travel and how they are going to fund their retirement.  But not now.  It would be impolite.

But I am quite curious.

HOLDING COURT

April 18, 2016

“Excuse me, but this is a library.  Could you please be a little quieter?”  My wife asked two couples who were talking rather loudly in the ship’s library, where the rest of us were reading.  We were close and had looked over twice.  Another lady had looked over, too.  We were on a cruise to see the 2016 eclipse, lucky to go there, but our room number was a lot lower than theirs, I would bet money.  The first deck was for those who paid a lot less for the cruise.

Not only were they loud, the men were bragging.  They were talking about their season tickets to Ohio State football games, being on the Board of something or other, how they had taken “hundreds of cruises,” and all the places they had traveled.  They had seen stuff I never had or will, and I’ve been to fifty different countries. I had seen a few more total solar eclipses than they had, not that I was going comment.

I am not an OSU fan, something that isn’t rational, so hearing the specifics of a loud conversation about the Buckeyes added to the unpleasantness.

The quieter of the two couples were standing, the loudmouth, probably our age, was sitting, leaning back in a chair, as if he were holding court.  My wife and I decided to move, and I left first. I’m not confrontational.  The few times I have been have not turned out well, for I have a very nasty sarcastic streak, which makes me feel badly later, when I have a clearer mind.  If it is easier for me to disengage, I will.  As I left, I turned around to see my wife saying something to the foursome.  She then joined me. My wife isn’t afraid to call people out on boorish behavior and does it well.  Maybe as a woman, she has an advantage, maybe not.  I am afraid I probably will be slugged. Or shot.  This is America, after all, although we had all gone through a metal detector to come aboard ship.  I felt safe from that.

The comment from the guy holding court to her was, “What, did we wake you up?”

That was completely uncalled for.  It was not true; it was rude, boorish, and frankly shocking that a person called out on loud speech in a library, one who has taken so many cruises, obviously rich and powerful, for he was a member of so many boards, would say such a thing.  I’ve served on only two boards my whole life—the local and state medical society ones—and have never once been asked or considered to be put on the board of anything else.  Maybe it is because I’m not a high-powered loud opinionated person.  Or maybe because my knowledge, wisdom, ability to listen, and to stay quiet long enough to put things together at the end of a meeting is not welcome.  I’m an introvert and a slow processor; the loudmouth idea generators, who don’t have time to allow those of us who are system builders to make ideas reality, sit on the boards in the world I live in.  Maybe it is a reason why the world is such a mess.  I often wonder how much potential is lost; that is definitely one reason why the world is such a mess.

Boorishness is in these days.  Donald Trump brought it back and has been very successful with it, at least with a disturbingly large segment of the American electorate.  Worse, apparently it is stressing out teachers and children, too.  Some teachers are not discussing the upcoming election.  Others have abandoned neutrality for the first time.  Anti-bullying work in schools is being stressed to the limit—and failing.  “I want to kill Muslims,” was said by a fifth grader.  “You are going to be sent back to Mexico,” was said to another.  Currently, I’m being flooded by requests for money from organizations to help stop Trump, when frankly, I think that is the Republican Party’s problem now, not mine.  Stopping Trump in favor of Cruz and avoiding a convention floor fight does not do my side any good.  I’m less worried about Trump than I am that Sanders’ supporters won’t support Clinton, should she get the nomination.  I would have thought what happened in 2000 would have been remembered, but our collective memory is short in this country.

I have been called out on my talking too loudly, the last time being when I came out of the woods after a winter camping trip and was having breakfast at The Front Porch, in Ely, Minnesota.  Fresh from camping in snow at 14F (-10 C), I was now warm and eating, and I called home from my corner table to tell my wife how interesting it was to be in the Minnesota woods in winter with nobody else around.  When one comes out of the woods after a solo trip, there is a natural tendency to speak loudly.   After a few minutes, a man sitting near me, who was in a conversation with three to four other people, came over and asked if I could be quieter.  Not a little quieter.  Quieter.

I was deeply embarrassed.  I apologized to him and went outside to continue the conversation.  When I returned, I didn’t say anything to him—or to anybody.  I remained silent.

Look, people make inadvertent errors or do things that they shouldn’t.  Speaking loudly in a quiet room is not unheard of.  We shouldn’t do it, but a lot of us forget.  I did.  The appropriate way to handle it was the way the man did to me and they way I responded.  Blaming the other person is narcissistic.  That’s the narcissistic way, the “I am too important to be bothered with such stuff” way, the “I can’t possibly be wrong” way.  I apologized and left the room to talk.

After we left the foursome, the other couple also left, with what my wife described as “relief” on their faces, as they exited a conversation that had gone on too long for them.  We ran into the guy holding court and his wife as they were walking the opposite direction, away from the library.  I looked through him, treating him as a non-existent being.

We were in the Java Sea, not Columbus.

DRUNK WITHOUT ALCOHOL: SLEEP DEPRIVATION

April 14, 2016

After the second long flight on the trip, from Tokyo to Singapore, we arrived in the Lion City about 1 a.m.  Fortunately, we had booked a hotel at the airport, and all we had to do was find it.

Biologically, it was about 10 a.m. the next day for me, and I had not slept well on the plane.  I seldom do.  Usually, my head flops over and wakes me up, and I couldn’t find a way to rest it elsewhere that worked.  Yet, I felt surprisingly sharp, as we walked through the terminal.  The terminal wasn’t quiet; indeed, the world isn’t quiet, even when it ought to be.

I wasn’t sharp,  although I didn’t realize it.  I had trouble finding the right tram, and the “T2” sign didn’t click with me as meaning “Terminal 2.”  I thought it meant “Tram 2.”  Nevertheless, we got to the hotel and slept a little.

The next morning, I realized how much clearer I was after even 5 hours of sleep.  There was so much I had missed in the airport the prior night.  I didn’t realize the shortness of the tram and the various shops present.  It wasn’t like I was totally stupid the night before, but I thought I had been functioning well, and instead I had acted like I was mildly drunk.

Exactly.

Being sleep deprived for 24 hours is akin to being drunk.

When I learned German online, I was often teaching English to people all over the world.  I was amazed at the hours when they were awake.  No, not the hours in my time zone, but hours in theirs.  People were up at 2,3 or 4 a.m.  I can’t fathom this.  I have often wondered if the one of the big problems in the world is that a good share of humanity is functioning half or fully drunk because they aren’t sleeping enough.  It sure would explain a lot of the world’s problems.

If I am separated from the felines who live with me, like when I take a canoe trip, I find I sleep even more than the 7 hours I usually get, although eventually I return to that number.

I knew sleep deprivation was bad when I was a physician.  I felt awful, the telephone’s ringing jarred me, I occasionally dozed, and I often sat writing a note on a patient, only to realize I was staring at the paper and nothing was appearing on it.  Had I been drinking and practicing medicine, I would have been thrown off the hospital staff.  Instead, they tolerated me for years functioning at a sub-optimal level, called “not enough sleep,” and actually expected it.  My partners did, my colleagues did, my teachers did, for the “giants” of medicine, those who in my view made the mess American medicine is, were purportedly able to function without eating, sleeping, or vacations.  They were held up as paragons of medical virtue.

The only bad evaluation I received as a medical student was when I gave the wrong order at midnight and fell back asleep.  The next day, the patient needed a ventilator.  I felt badly, for good doctors give the right order any time day or night.  I obviously was not good.

Eventually, medical programs recognized the need for doctors in training to get enough sleep.  Pilots have known about sleep deprivation for a lot longer.  The airline disasters in the Marianas and Colombia were in large part due to pilot fatigue.  Pilots take brief naps on long haul flights, for a nap has been shown to improve performance.  I wonder sometimes how many errors I made because I was too tired.  We all gave orders over the phone at night and had in the future to sign off our phone orders.  There were always orders I gave at say 3:27 a.m. that I had no recollection of  giving.  No recollection.  That’s scary.

More than one has teased me for the brief 10 minute afternoon nap I often take and have taken for years.  Because I have animals, I am up at 5.  I am in bed by 9, when most I know go to bed a lot later.  Indeed, I often wonder if they go to bed at all.  There appears to be a gap between 2 and 5 in the afternoon on the US West Coast, when the rest of the world is quieter.  Three hours.  Then in the evening the messages start, and when I awaken at 5, there are often messages sent to me at 1,2,3 a.m. as if I were awake at those hours.

Nope.  I’m not.  I can’t function awake at 24 hours.  Nobody can.  Oh, people can be awake that long, but they are kidding themselves if they think they can function.  They are missing things in life, because we just aren’t able to function normally.

GOOSEBUMPS

April 8, 2016

It’s not every day I get interviewed for Nebraska Life magazine.  Or give the interviewer goosebumps.  Like everything else that had happened in the prior two days, it was a matter of chance.

It was chance that as a Rowe Sanctuary volunteer doing daily cleaning, I decided to take a sweeper over to the viewing blinds, which get sand and small gravel tracked in.  It was chance that led me to stop for a few minutes, delaying my return, because I saw a flicker come out of a cavity nest in a dead cottonwood.  When one is volunteering at a bird sanctuary, things like a flicker’s leaving a nest are important matters.

The delay held me long enough on the trail that I encountered Alan, a little younger than I.  He saw my name tag, recognized me, and introduced himself.  I was a little embarrassed I hadn’t recognized him.  I’m the same way with birds—good auditory memory, terrible visual.  We knew each other from past years, since he also volunteers at Rowe; judging by his shirt, he worked for Nebraska Life magazine as an assistant editor.  I told Alan that I was once an assistant guide with him, and I emulated many of his traits.  Alan smiled, then asked if he could interview me for a story.  Why not?

We talked about why I came to Rowe and what the cranes meant to me.  He then suggested that we go into Jamalee Blind to shoot some pictures of me, while I swept the carpet.  Why not?  And I told him about the story that happened two nights prior, in East Blind.

I didn’t go into all the details, such as my 11 hour trip from Eugene to Kearney, leaving me frazzled when I arrived.  I probably should have gone to bed early and not bothered the public with my mood.  Instead, I went to the viewing blind that evening with Jane, an experienced volunteer ten years my senior.   It is always good to see Jane each year and even better to go out into the blind with her. She’s a solid Nebraskan who knows what’s she’s doing, telling me that while she wanted to talk to the thirty-two visitors first, she thought I should say more, because she learned from me every time I spoke.  I could say the same thing about her.

At that time of day, I wasn’t sure I was capable of meeting her expectations, but said nothing.  We had a good group who asked great questions, and the cranes put on a nice show, flying over several times, as they do in early evening, before they landed on the river.  It was still early, and I quietly strolled back and forth in the blind, making sure people were properly situated.  And then came the the story I related to Alan:

As I reached one end of the blind, a woman asked me, “You said that seeing the cranes were one of your top three sights in nature.  What were the other two?”

I stopped and looked at her: “A total solar eclipse and seeing a wolf in the wild on Isle Royale.”

From behind, I heard, “Did you know there are only two wolves left on Isle Royale?”  I turned around, seeing a tall man with a kind, somewhat concerned face.

“Yes,” I replied.  “I don’t know what is going to happen next.”

“I’m involved in some of that for an environmental group in Minnesota.”

That was interesting.  I told him I was a member of the Friends of the Boundary Waters, a small organization in Minneapolis that leverages a few paid staff members and several thousand members to accomplish good things.

“I was their first liaison to the northern communities.”  That stopped me cold.

“We know each other,” I said, with a little more excitement. “What’s your name?”

“Ian.”

“Mike Smith.”

Ian paused, his eyes briefly questioning, then I saw the sudden change of recognition in his face as he realized who I was and that we indeed had met each other in person in northern Minnesota four years earlier at an annual scholarship banquet for Vermilion Community College.  In 2008, I established a scholarship at Vermilion, splitting the funding with the Friends.  Four years later, the Friends established a liaison for the northern Minnesota communities, Ely especially, and Ian was the person “on the ground.”  We jointly presented the scholarship for two years. We shook each other’s hands, talked for a few minutes, and then it was time for him to look for cranes and for me to walk back down the blind.  As I left, he shook his head in disbelief. I suspect I did the same thing.

Viewing wildlife is a matter of being in the right place at the right time, having all senses open, and being ready for the unexpected.  It’s all about recognizing opportunities when they occur.

I hadn’t ever imagined I would encounter somebody in a viewing blind whom I knew from somewhere else.  Paul Johnsgard, one of the leading writers about cranes, speaks of the conjunction of spring, a river, and a special bird.  Ian and I had supported a special wilderness 1000 miles away.  By chance, we arrived in the same viewing blind at the same time in another special place.  Several unlikely utterances had to occur for each of us to discover the other’s presence.

Underneath my jacket, not visible, was my shirt, which was “Isle Royale National Park.”  I had never worn that shirt before.  Of all the shirts I could have worn, I chose that one.

I had had a long, unpleasant day.  But again, being among the Sandhill Cranes was magic.  My telling the story gave Alan goosebumps.  I saw them myself.

There was more than one conjunction that night on the Platte.

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TEASING

April 1, 2016

One Saturday night early in my internship, I was called to the cardiology floor to evaluate a patient with a fast pulse.  I walked into the room, today still able to remember what room and which bed he was in.  The man’s heart rate was about 150, and while he was tolerating it, he needed to have something done.  I hooked up an EKG, both confirming the rapid pulse rate and the diagnosis, atrial flutter, with 2:1 block, so the atrial rate was 300 contractions a minute and half of them were getting through to the ventricles.  Back then, before the anti-arrhythmic drugs we have today, massaging the carotid artery was one way to stimulate vagal tone and slow the heart rate.  Thinking I could see the EKG well, I started massaging the patient’s right carotid artery.

I can still see the patient as he had a seizure about twenty seconds later.  I took my finger off the carotid and he quickly woke up.  I looked more closely at what I thought I had been watching.  The vagal tone I stimulated was so strong that I blocked all atrial conduction, no longer 2:1 but rather 300:0, so that not one beat passed through the atrioventricular node to the ventricle.  I had put him into cardiac arrest.  Great job, Doc.  No pumping, no blood.  No blood, no brain function.  When the brain suddenly gets no blood, one of two things may happen: coma, which is the most common, or a sudden burst of electrical activity, a seizure. I once seized when I fainted.  A lot of “near death” experiences may be due to excessive brain stimulation due to severe hypoxia.

The attending showed up an hour later, looked at the patient, then the EKG, and finally me.  He held up the EKG, looked down his glasses, and quietly said, in a British accent,  “Are you the author of this?”  I was embarrassed beyond belief.  The patient was moved to ICU and fortunately made an uneventful recovery.

My misadventure with a patient’s neck was the butt of many jokes for the rest of my internship. For days afterward, every one of my fellow interns, when they saw me, would rub the side of their neck. Even today, I would be willing to bet money if one of the interns I knew saw me, the first thing he would do is put his hand on the right side of his neck and act like he was rubbing it.  He did that every time he saw me for the rest of the year.

The first few times it was tolerable.  Then, it became annoying and finally hurtful.  I admit it.  I screwed up.  Do I have to be reminded of it every time you see me?  What do you want?  Should I admit to being the worst doctor in existence?  Would that help?  Should I quit? Would that help?  Why are you doing this to me?  Have you never made a mistake?

Later, in practice, I saw a psych patient whom I was convinced didn’t have anything neurological going on.  A nurse disagreed, and she was proven right; the CT scan I ordered showed a large, benign brain tumor, which had caused the person’s problems.  I might add while this is always a consideration, I only saw twice a benign tumor causing psychosis in all the years I practiced.  Oh, I diagnosed the other tumor.  For years afterward, the nurse reminded me of my mistake.  Stuff like that hurts.  It starts to eat away at a person.  OK, I missed a tumor.  I am a bad person, a bad diagnostician, a bad doctor, and on and on up the ladder of inference.  Do you continue to  have to remind me?  Does anybody remind me, I wondered back then, about the diagnoses I did make correctly, the patients I did help, the times I was right and others were wrong?  What about the case of Wilson’s Disease that I diagnosed on the first visit in the office?

Teasing is toxic.  Maybe in small doses, it is fine, but only in small doses.  Let the individual poke fun at himself or herself.  And perhaps that is why I behaved the way I did last February 2, when the hike leader gave me a stuffed toy of a groundhog and told me quietly to start hiking before everybody else and put the groundhog on the trail somewhere where it could be seen.  About fifteen minutes up the trail, I stopped and placed the groundhog on the edge in the sun, because frankly I wanted six more weeks of winter.  I like rain; I haven’t seen enough of it in decades.

I waited, and when the first group of hikers arrived, one looked at the groundhog and pulled out his camera.  He was dead serious.  “Wow, a groundhog is up here!”

I thought he was kidding.  He had to be.  But the furry thing did look kind of real.  I quietly walked over and put my hand down on the stuffed animal.

“Oh my God,” the hiker said. “I fell for that.  I can’t believe it!!”  I didn’t say anything.

And I haven’t since.  The individual has mentioned the groundhog event to several people, but I have stayed quiet.  Sure, I could have teased him about it, but a long time ago, I learned what I should have known all along:  a good deal of teasing is toxic.  It hurts, and it isn’t appreciated, no matter what people say.  “Can’t you take a little teasing?” I heard as a kid.  I should have replied, “Can’t you take a little poison?”

GREAT EXPECTATIONS

March 23, 2016

It all started with a packaging error on some soy burgers I bought.  At home, I discovered a slit in the bottom of two that I didn’t see when I bought them.  Who knows how long the contents had been exposed to air?  How often do you check the packaging when you buy something?  For me, not often enough.

I returned to the store and told the manager, who was shocked.  I said I was going to look at the other packages they had to see if they, too, were defective.  When I checked the box that had the identical soy, sure enough, the two remaining packages in it had rips.  I took them back to the manager’s counter.

I had to wait, however, as I watched a woman with bleached blonde hair, maybe mid 40s, and a young man, who might well have been her son, discuss lottery tickets.

“We can’t afford too many,” she said.  “We need $20 for xxxx.”  I couldn’t hear what “xxxx” was.

I was stunned, as I watched them purchase six lottery tickets, some sort of scratch type, for $60, which the woman counted out using twenties, fives and ones.  It might have been a Raffle. You can’t win if you don’t play, right?  That was the catch phrase in Arizona.  You can’t lose if you don’t play would have been more accurate, and I can prove it.

Let us look at the expected value, which anybody playing the lottery should understand.  We ought to teach this in schools. If the expected value of something done is positive, over the long run it will be successful; if negative, over the long run, it will not be.

Here’s an example.  At a roulette table, you plunk down $1 on a roll of two dice.  If they come up double 3s, you get a 30-fold return—$30.  Well, it isn’t 30 fold, because you paid $1 to begin with.  It is 29-fold.  Don’t laugh, casinos get rich on these “minor points.”  You have a 1 in 36 probability that the dice will both be 3: 1 in 6 for each, and we multiply the probabilities when one doesn’t affect the other, a term called  independence. The probability of winning $30 is (1/36), and the probability of losing $1 is (35/36).  If you multiply these and then add, you get +$(30/36)-$(35/36)=$(-5/36).  That fraction comes out to about MINUS 14 cents per dollar bet.  Are there winners?  Yes.  The consistent winner is the casino.  Not only is it consistent, they can predict very accurately how much they will make, because in the long run (not a player’s time horizon), the casino will make 14 cents on each dollar wagered for that bet.

What I saw for a $10 Raffle ticket:

1 in 250 chance of winning $100

1 in 25,000 chance of winning $20,000

1 in 250,000 chance of winning $1,000,000

The exact calculations are more complicated, but the simple way works just fine.

You spend $10, and you have a 1/250 chance to win $100, an expected value of $100/250 or $0.40, 40 cents.  You also have a 1/25,000 probability of winning $20,000, and that is $0.80, so the expected return of both is $1.20. Add to that the 1 in 250,000 chance of winning $1 million, $1,000,000/250,000=$4.  The total expected return on $10 spent is $5.20, give or take.  That’s the plus.  The minus is $10(249/250)=$9.96.  The expected value is $5.20-$9.96=  MINUS $4.76.  The pair spent $60. If we looked at a lot of people buying, all of them, they would on average lose about $28.50.  One of those $20s that one comes in to the store with, and nearly a ten spot as well, won’t be seen again.  Do that weekly for a year, one will lose nearly $1500 on average.

The lottery is very coy about posting long lists of numbers that won $100.  Sounds like a great deal, except that first, they really won $90, because they paid $10 for the ticket.  Secondly, the list of those who lost is about 120 times longer.  We don’t see that one.

Here in Oregon, 93% of the money spent on the lottery goes to payouts.  Sounds good, except that the big payouts go to very few people.  BUT A LOT OF PEOPLE WIN A LITTLE, LIKE $100, AND THAT’S A HUGE PROBLEM.  This is called variable ratio reinforcement.  Winning occasionally keeps one playing.  Never winning at all causes one to quit sooner.

There is a very strong correlation between low income and high use of the lottery. Why do people play?  Answer: they see this as the only way out of poverty.  The probability is exceedingly high, however, that they will only go deeper into poverty. The lottery is a regressive tax levied on those who can least afford it.  The lottery steals from those who don’t understand math, probability, or how our brain can lie to us.  When the money goes to education, a noble cause, it is being paid for by those who have the least money: the very poor spend 9% of their income on the lottery.  If one makes $13,000 a year, that is nearly $1100 they spend on the lottery.  If one has difficulty making ends meet, this is going to push them over the edge—with high probability—and I can define that probability exactly.

I never forgot what my statistics advisor said about expected values:  “If it is positive, I will beg, borrow, steal every dollar I have to play.”

It becomes absolutely certain at some point that somebody will win Powerball.  We can predict that as well.  If there is a Powerball with a probability of winning equal to 1 in 110 million (roughly equivalent to your guessing correctly a minute I choose between the signing of the Declaration of Independence in 1776 and now), and 330 million play the Powerball, the expected value of winners is 3.  Three people are expected to win; the probability of exactly 3 is about 22%; the probability that between 1 and 5 will win is nearly 7 in 8, and the probability nobody will win is about 5%, quite small.  In other words, one can make remarkably accurate probabilistic statements what is going to happen.  Did you guess my minute? (It was 3:32-3:33 a.m. 15 August 1846).

I’m lucky; I live comfortably.  Still, I bend down to pick up a dime or a penny if I see one.  If PetsMart gives me a $3 coupon for doing a survey, I will do it.  If REI gives me a dividend, and I am planning to buy something, I will buy it with the dividend and furthermore try to get it when the item is on sale.  I use coupons when I shop, I comparison shop, I don’t drive 30 miles for cheaper gas, because it’s more expensive to do so, I pay my credit cards off every month, I try not to get a tax refund, because it means I loaned the government money, and I DON’T PLAY THE LOTTERY.

But occasionally, I do silly things with money.  The store agreed that the ripped packages I returned, and the two others in that I found that were also ripped, needed to be removed.  I found two good packages, but they were not on sale, so I actually had to pay to replace them.  I paid $4.40 for doing the store and any customer who bought those a favor.  Small price for what I learned about the lottery.

The expected value for doing a good deed was negative.  In the long run…

THE ASTROPHYSICS GUY

March 13, 2016

It’s easy to get disoriented finding one’s way around the night sky from the Southern Hemisphere.  I’ve been south of the equator 11 times, each time having to relearn the southern night sky.  From our ship in the Java Sea, 4 degrees south of the Equator, almost all the northern hemisphere constellations were visible, but they appeared upside down, although my Down Under friends would disagree.

My wife and I had done a lot of laps walking around the deck during this cruise, never using the elevators.  We were piling up steps, number of feet climbed, in a losing effort to burn off the calories it was so easy to consume on board.  At least we eschewed alcohol, saving both money and calories.

On one evening walk on the third deck, we stopped to look at some of the stars, despite the bright lights aft.  My wife spotted Orion, high overhead, and from there I was able to work my way around familiar stars in both the northern and southern celestial hemispheres.  From the Equator, theoretically the entire sky is visible, although near the horizon faint stars disappear, because we look through many thicknesses of the Earth’s atmosphere to the horizon.  Go outside on a dark night sometime and notice how much brighter a star appears overhead compared to when it was on the horizon.

We did see a bright star to the south, but I couldn’t identify it, needing a darker sky.  The next night, we went looking for a better spot.  The first place we tried was the bow, but some ship workers told us that was off limits.  We weren’t convinced, however, because we had been there in daylight without problems, so we waited until they were gone and snuck back, but found the area dark and full of obstructions.  Chastened, we beat it back to safety and planned another assault to view the dark sky.  My wife suggested seven decks higher, where we finally found an open deck with a small platform that allowed us a view over a plexiglass rail.  The sky was beautiful, the ambient light minimal but enough to keep us from tripping over a bollard or a deck chair.

Now I could see some neat stuff.  Leaving Orion behind, I pointed out the False Cross and then the true Southern Cross, low in the east.  I was speaking softly, when a man approached, asking if he could join us.  We helped him up, since the platform held four or five.  He was either an astrophysicist from Vancouver or was interested in astrophysics, I wasn’t really sure, but he definitely wanted to learn the night sky.

Now I was in my element.  Night sky, interested person, chance to teach, to talk about what the stuff meant, along with what I didn’t know, which is a lot.

I started with Orion:  On the Equator, Orion is a bit hard on the neck, but wow, even the sword was bright, and the Milky Way’s running through Orion and Monoceros was fabulous, although I omitted mentioning the name of the latter.  Keep things simple.  I took us around the stars of the Winter/Summer Hexagon/Heptagon, depending whether one counts Castor and Pollux as one or two.  Following Orion’s belt to the south, I began with Sirius, brightest star in the night sky and closest night star visible to the unaided eye; then Rigel; Aldebaran; and Procyon; P for the next star, Pollux; then Castor; C for the next star, Capella; then back to Sirius.  Red Betelgeuse was in the middle and at the opposite end of Orion from Rigel.  The astrophysics guy was able to appreciate the colors of Betelgeuse, orange Aldebaran and slightly orange Pollux.  He was having fun, I was having a blast. My wife found the Pleiades, one of her favorites, and she was contributing, too.  This was great.  I mentioned the Hyades Cluster around Aldebaran, about a third the distance of the Pleiades.

From Sirius, we looked down to Canopus, the second brightest star, just visible from southern Arizona in the winter, but really bright here on the Equator.  The astrophysics guy loved it.  He had once been to a star party in Nevada’s Great Basin National Park, and was starting to remember a few things. I then took him further south in the sky, to alpha-Centauri and the Southern Cross.  This was new to him, and he was thrilled, saying he wished his wife were up with us.

By now, I was fully dark adapted, and I remembered in March, the Magellanic Clouds are visible, and pointed them out a little south of where we had been looking.  This was amazing, reminding me of the writer Peter Leschak’s words:  “You don’t see this stuff every day.  But you do see it every night, under a clear, dark sky.”  Or something like that.

Not detecting boredom, and not being told by my wife I had said enough, I kept going. I pointed out the three stars of Orion’s belt, Alnitak, Alnilam, and Mintaka, from left to right in the northern hemisphere, and I was totally confused what to call them overhead, laughing.  OK, Mintaka was about overhead, lying on the celestial equator, the projection of our equator on the night sky.  Orion is great.  Want to learn the night sky?  Find Orion, and you can learn to name about 18 stars in a hurry:  Betelgeuse and Bellatrix are at the top, in the Northern Hemisphere, Saiph and Rigel on the bottom.  But top and bottom are different on the equator—different degrees of neck straining.  Betelgeuse is definitely red and the belt goes directly overhead.  At least where we were.  Your results may vary.

So, seven stars in Orion; near Sirius was Murzim to the west; near Procyon, Gomeisa shone to the left or west; near Castor and Pollux was Alhena near Betelgeuse.  I think that’s 16.  Canopus and Alpha-Centauri make 18.  The astrophysicist mentioned that everything we were looking at was part of the Milky Way.  He was doing great.  I pointed to the region where the open star clusters M41,near Sirius, M35 near Alhena were.  We were rolling now.  I talked about the “kids,” three dim stars near Capella, one of which fades in an eclipse every 27 years, although I was damned if I could remember which Greek letter it was (it’s epsilon). The last eclipse was 2010.  I doubt I will see it eclipsed again, but I’ve seen two, and they were fascinating.  I mentioned I was formerly a variable star observer, measuring the light of pulsating intrinsic variables and eclipsing binaries.  Astronomy is such a huge field.

The astrophysicist mentioned that Andromeda was the furthest we could see with the unaided eye and continued that Hubble was one who realized that Andromeda might be beyond our galaxy.  Great.  He was teaching.  That got me talking about the Cepheid variables, whose brightness is a function of their cycle, something that allowed us to determine Andromeda’s distance.  Thank you, Henrietta Leavitt, one of the forgotten—not by me—women of astronomy, who discovered that.*  The astrophysics guy said he was going to try to bring his wife top side.

At that point, my wife was going to try to bring me back to Earth, or at least the lowest deck, where our room was.  Fair enough.

I’ll remember a lot from the cruise, but that night with the astrophysics guy was better than a lot of tours we took.

I bet he’d say the same thing.

*Henrietta Leavitt (1868-1921) proposed the periodicity-luminosity ratio for Cepheid variables in the Magellanic Clouds, discovering that the brighter ones had a longer periodicity.  Assuming correctly that they were all similar distances from the Earth, it was then possible to determine the distances of remote objects.  Hubble used it to determine the distance Andromeda Galaxy was far further from the Earth than we could have imagined, that the universe was expanding,  huge leaps in astronomical knowledge.

SHADOW: THE 2016 ECLIPSE IN INDONESIA

March 13, 2016

 

My wife and I are dedicated eclipse chasers.  Yes, we are crazy folks (we prefer the adjective “interesting”) who go to the ends of the Earth and take a chance on the weather in order to see the Moon completely cover the Sun, one of my top four sights in nature.  By the ends of the Earth, I mean both poles, Pitcairn Island, all 7 continents, Siberia in March, and five times in Africa.

I have been fortunate enough to have been in many beautiful wilderness areas, and the other top three were a face-to-face encounter with a wolf on Isle Royale, nobody within ten trail miles of me; the annual migration of the Sandhill Cranes; and the closeness I’ve been to grizzlies in Alaska.

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Bears at Brooks Falls, Katmai

On our last chase, hoping to see my sixteenth total eclipse, we flew to Singapore, boarded the MS Volendam and sailed across the equator (my finally earning at long last “shellback” status) to Indonesia, first south, later east and finally northbound for the eclipse 8 days later.

I wasn’t particularly eager to take the trip. Long flights are difficult, I don’t sleep well, and I’m not a great people person, so cruises and Asia aren’t places I like to be.  Still, I will do what it takes to see an eclipse.  We took a tour in Jakarta, so I trod on the soil of my fiftieth country.  I’ve seen a lot of the Third World, only a few times actually immersing myself in it helping people, time measured in days, not months or years, and it is difficult to see how most of the people in the world live.

We often find special moments in unexpected places.  On Jakarta’s tour, I saw the usual monuments and museums that I guess I should see, although frankly I am not a monument or a museum person.  Maybe I should be, but I don’t judge harshly those who don’t share my love for the wilderness.  In Probblingo, we went into town for the sole reason to find a mall to buy a couple of cotton Indonesian shirts like the ones we had seen in Jakarta.  We found the mall, got the shirts, explored the place, and enjoyed ourselves.  The tour was on our own, lasted two hours, and we have fond memories of the place.

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National Monument in Jakarta

 

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Red Church in Probblingo

Several days later, heading north towards the eclipse track, we stopped in Makassar, a city on the southwest corner of the island of Sulawesi, across the strait from Borneo.  This was a place I never expected to see, a comment I make on every eclipse trip.  We saw Fort Rotterdam, avoided getting run over in traffic, and later returned aboard the ship, a little nervous about next day’s eclipse.

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Fort Rotterdam in Makassar

Eclipse chasing requires one to be at exactly the right place at the exactly right time, have decent skies, clear where the Sun happens to be.  This is a tall order in the tropics, especially during rainy season.  Sometimes, we have had to explain to a tour guide that “exact time” means to the second, not whenever one happens to arrive.  Exact time for eclipses does not mean mañana.  There is no mañana.  It is be there or miss it.  You can’t see it “some other time.”

With that attitude, I can perhaps be forgiven for not being overly polite to those who dawdle going to the eclipse path, thinking that my visiting one more museum or monument is important.  No, seeing the eclipse will make my trip.  If that means I miss a monument, an elephant ride, a temple, or a church, so be it.  My priority is seeing the eclipse.  I’ve heard stories of ships being 2 hours late to the eclipse track, of vehicles breaking down.

Fortunately, we had a good captain, who along with his bridge crew understood our needs.  He steamed a little further west in the Makassar Strait than originally planned, because cloudiness was less there.  It’s not only a matter of rain that may affect eclipses, but those puffy, pretty cumulus clouds become eclipse killers on eclipse day, and we needed to dodge them.

A good eclipse is directly proportional to the amount of sunscreen one uses.

My wife and I were up at 5 to get a place on the 9th deck on the starboard side at 5:10, where twenty people had already arrived.  Stars were visible, Jupiter dotting in and out of view between clouds to the west.  Well, I thought, there is hope, but I couldn’t yet see the sky well.  We didn’t have much equipment, but we still brought up two chairs from the deck below.  The Sun rose just after 6, and the clouds were not great, not bad.  We knew the Sun would be higher during eclipse, and we waited. Others arrived, bringing more deck chairs from below.

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People on deck before totality

At first contact, where the Moon takes a small bite out of the Sun, it was partly cloudy.  Eclipses last about two and a half hours, totality in the middle, a little less than 3 minutes for this eclipse, 7 minutes and 32 seconds maximum possible.  After first contact, the Sun often disappeared behind a cloud for a few minutes, which is no problem, unless those minutes are during totality.  As the eclipse progressed, weather prospects improved.  The clouds became fewer and thinner.  The Sun’s projection through the weave of our deck chairs showed a multitude of crescents on the deck below, scores of pinhole cameras.  This is one of our favorite times during every eclipse.

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Crescents made by eclipsed Sun’s shining through tiny holes in a deck chair

As the crescent shrank to nearly nothing, I looked behind me to the west.  I was first to call out the arrival of the Moon’s shadow, a huge, dark mass, approaching at 30 miles a minute, the Moon’s orbital speed.  I turned around in time to see the Diamond Ring, the last bit of sunlight, and then beautiful totality, lasting 2 minutes and 45 seconds, over the calm Makassar Strait.  After the second Diamond Ring, the end of totality, I quickly looked down and east, calling out the rapidly disappearing Moon’s shadow, leaving us at a half mile a second.  For some time now, I have regularly watched the disappearance of the Moon’s shadow.  It’s visible for about 5, maybe 10 seconds.  I don’t know anybody who has ever mentioned it in eclipse talks.

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Totality

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Maybe they never looked.  After all, when totality is over, most people leave to celebrate, unfortunately in our instance leaving their chairs on the deck, instead of putting them back where they got them.  That’s kind of rude, even on a cruise ship.

Then a man about my age nudged me.  “Thank you,” he said, with his wife’s standing by him, “for pointing out the shadow’s disappearance.  I saw it, and I had never seen that before.  It was really interesting.”  His wife nodded.

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Moon’s shadow’s disappearing.  It is subtle, but the darkness on the horizon is the shadow

All total solar eclipses are special.  Sometimes, what I remember best is not the black disk in the sky covering the Sun, but something else, quite unexpected, like a disappearing shadow.  The man’s comments made my day.  I taught him something, and he was glad.

Later, my wife and I picked up about four dozen chairs left behind and helped the crew return them.  Yes, the crew is there to serve the passengers, but put the chairs back.

It appeases the eclipse gods.

EERO, EPOR AND THE 577R ALLELE

March 2, 2016

It did me good to read that Finnish skier Eero Mäntyranta’s success in winning seven Olympic medals in cross country skiing was likely due to a genetic mutation that increased his oxygen carrying capacity 25-50%.  He wasn’t the only Finn who was this fortunate.  I wondered at the time why Americans never were on the podium in those events.

It also did me good when I read in Outside about a man who could hold his breath six minutes—yes, six minutes— and used that skill to dive to tag threatened hammerhead sharks.  A comment was even made by Laird Hamilton that this man was unique.

Hamilton, one of the great big wave surfers, is unique, too.

It did me good to read that virtually every Track and Field star has the 577R allele in some form, enabling them to do things that the rest of us can’t.  It isn’t a matter of training harder, as some have told us, or “mental toughness”; nope, it’s genetics.  Now, that doesn’t mean one can’t train and improve.  There was evidence that Lance Armstrong improved his muscle performance 8 per cent through training.  Unfortunately for the sport, he improved it another smidgin by taking drugs, although he was far from alone.  All Tour de France riders are genetically exceptional, and at the top of the top, a fraction of a per cent advantage matters.  Some argue that genetic mutations don’t make for a level playing field. Well, we aren’t all created equal.

For years, reading about all these guys and gals who could do everything from surf to big wall climbing made me feel inadequate, despite my wondering that these skills were genetic.  Now it’s clear.  You either are born that way or you aren’t.  Nurture is essential, mind you, but nature creates a few special people every generation.  I am not one of them and never will be.  On the other case, I’ve never taken performance-enhancing drugs.  I was drug-free.  Maybe there is a genetic mutation for that, too.  Or maybe good nurturing teaches one not to cheat.

For most of my life, I tried to play sports well.  I am competitive.  But I have a modest ceiling.  My medal in 1966 for the third place 400 yard freestyle relay at the Delaware state swimming championships was my being a moderate size fish in a puddle, since Delaware, besides being the first state, is the second smallest.  I played baseball but never thought to try out for the team.  Basketball? I played third string in the city league, although one fabulous day I hit 20 free throws in a row at a schoolyard.

In cycling I was in the top 14% of the El Tour de Tucson 109 mile finishers.  That meant I placed about #736.  I trained long hours and had done all the right things; my result wasn’t bad, but hardly noteworthy.  In only one sport—skiing—was I good, and that was because I started young, took lessons, and had a lot of days on snow.  I was an excellent technical skier, but I couldn’t race well.  As a kid, I dreamt of being a pro baseball player; I never once dreamed of being a top skier. I was neither.

I feel better knowing that when I watch a track meet, or a good basketball game, I am watching people with chromosomal genetic code that I and nearly all others do not have.  More importantly, I understand the pain of those who train and train and train, but they didn’t have the right 577R allele to be part of the U.S. Olympic Team.

I feel better knowing that I was right when I argued with my cycling friends that it was genetics that made top riders.  All the training I did made me better and faster, but I reached a low asymptote.  I do believe I have a slight genetic advantage for endurance. I did a 200 mile bike ride once in just over 12 hours. In the 2002 Cochise County Classic, I was part of a small group that had our own support, and from mile 100 to mile 160, the end, I was pulling at the front two-thirds of the time, stamping out a solid pace, seven riders in my slip stream,  as we finished in about 8 hours, averaging 20 mph.

I was sixth out of 20 finishers.  Not even podium.

I was right when I argued that if I could be a top cyclist by training, anybody could multiply three digit numbers in their head, the way I do, simply by training.  That stopped most arguments, because people knew then that my skills were genetic.  Sure, I practiced math a lot, but I had this stuff in my genetic code from day 1, just like Yo-Yo Ma and cello;  Laird Hamilton in big wave surfing, Chris Froome in cycling, or Stephan Curry in basketball.

We should celebrate these people, and we do, paying them good money and cheering for the the ones we like to succeed.  No doubt they eat right, they train right, they do everything they can to reach their potential.  Some do it better than others, and they are household names.

I no longer feel inadequate when I read about these people who grace the articles in Outside, Sports Illustrated or Golf Digest.  I am reading about genetics, what how random mutations can positively affect performance, and—I think—to a lesser extent what training does.  Training is what we can control, and allows us to do reasonably well, be it learning a language or hiking up a mountain.  None of us will be noteworthy except maybe in our small group.  Nope, it is the mutations who make the stars, the names we know.  They work hard, to be sure, to separate themselves from other stars, but they are in a league of their own.

Now all we need is a mutation that leads to idea generation that would fix the rest of the human race, so we wouldn’t trash the planet and drive ourselves to the brink of extinction, which we will.

Maybe it’s time for better nurture.

MY ANNUAL BILL TO BE AN AMERICAN

February 18, 2016

After the New Hampshire primary, a friend commented that she didn’t want her taxes to go to send other people’s children to college, a comment on Sen. Bernie Sanders’ plan for free college education.

I was surprised and a little disappointed to hear that.  Through grants, to name one example, government is involved in education.  My taxes go to many places that are irrelevant to me.  I have no children,  I don’t eat meat, and I’m not a woman.  Should I have the right not to be taxed for public education, grazing fees on my land, and Planned Parenthood?  Of course not.  Is my friend going to vote for the other side, who will defund  Planned Parenthood and require that all rape-caused pregnancy be carried to term?   I was against the Iraq War long before it started, but my taxes went for that debacle.  I will never drive on roads in Texas again, so why should my taxes go for that?

While we are at it, we could get rid of the phrase “hard earned dollars.”  Sometimes they are, sometimes not.  In any case, the phrase is worn out.

There are things that the federal government must do, because we as people living in towns, cities and states simply cannot do them ourselves with our own resources.  We can’t clean up after a devastating natural disaster without federal help.  Yet, more than 30 Senators voted against Hurricane Sandy aid, even though many were from states that FEMA has been to many times after devastating storms.  We can’t defend ourselves against major foreign powers, and we can’t pay for medical care for the elderly or infirm.  We can’t build a national system of roads, and we can’t have a national weather service, the NIH or the CDC without the federal government.  These and so many other programs are essential to our well-being.  Live in the South?  Maybe you are glad the National Hurricane Center exists.  Government shouldn’t do everything, but there are things government can do.  And should.

People ought to save for retirement.  I did.  Sure, there are many who buy toys or travel everywhere without putting anything away and then find themselves old with no money.  I am not sure what is going to happen to them, except they will have less—but not zero—money.  We ought to make it easier to save, and we have to an extent with IRAs.  We need to do more, however, because if a senior is destitute, somebody somehow has to care for them, unless we are a different country from the one I thought we were. I had good fortune and a good job.  In the 45 years of being between 20 and 65, had I developed a significant medical problem, and I hadn’t had insurance, I would have become bankrupt.  Many have.  It doesn’t matter whether or not a person was saving money or whether the problem was their fault.  They need a safety net.  We can argue about the size of the safety net or whether people like me should receive it, just because we reached a certain age.  That is fair.  But the fact our taxes go to pay for something somebody else gets doesn’t a priori make it wrong.  That’s what elections are about.  My taxes are payment for my annual bill of being an American, and frankly, it is a great bargain.

People ought to have a healthy lifestyle, too.  Why should I pay for smokers who develop emphysema or lung cancer?  Or those who eat the wrong diet and suffer the consequences?  Or motorcyclists who have accidents and weren’t wearing helmets?  The list is endless.  I could add to it the question “Why should I pay for future cases of Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy caused by football, soccer, or hockey?”  Nobody forced those people to play the game.  Many made a lot of money.  Why, I could ask, don’t they fund themselves?

What we have accomplished with our collective will and our federal government is so pervasive in our lives we don’t recognize it but take it for granted.  It isn’t; it may be removed at any time.  When FEMA was decimated under Bush, we saw what happened to New Orleans.  Bush’s response to Katrina did as much to bring down his presidency as Iraq.  Had Social Security been privatized, the recession would have bankrupted millions of people who get by on something they were never intended to get by on.  I shudder to think what will happen if Medicare is taken away.  It can be.  All it needs is a president, a Congress, and a Supreme Court willing to do it, and if one thinks that is impossible, one is unaware of reality.  I am already preparing for 2017 and 2018, when the other side is in power and the safety nets are removed.  I am counting on voters finally waking up and showing up to vote in November 2018 to take back Congress and stop the madness.  Being American voters, I may be hoping for too much.

Every time we drive on a federal highway/Interstate, we are seeing what our taxes went for.  Every time we go into a national forest or a national park, we see it. The food labels for nutrition that are so helpful are a federal law.  We ought to have point-of-origin food labels and label GMOs. The medications we take are safer, due to the FDA.  If one flies, there is the FAA, NTSB, and the TSA.  Indeed, we now have the TSA, because prior to 2001, the airlines were responsible for security, and we saw what happened.  Pilots are trained to certain standards.  Flight attendants are, too, and everything that they say was legislated.

Regulations exist to ensure there is a certain baseline of information that is given to the public.  Regulations in food safety exist because without them, we have no guarantee that each food service facility will do the right thing.  Regulations exist, because every year we see what happens without proper regulation.

Here’s my plan for who pays for college:  I would bring back the Civilian Conservation Corps and the GI Bill, make young people serve their country and then give them the education they want.  College for young people is a better investment than the Iraq War was. My downpayment for being an American was serving my country.  The annual payment is called taxes.  I get a say in what happens.  That’s my social contract.

Let’s bring it back.  It will help bring us together.