Archive for January, 2013

SOME THINGS DON’T COME WITH A PRICE TAG

January 21, 2013

Because my wife works in the Phoenix area on weekends, I often hear of unusual cases.  A 60-ish woman developed hemoptysis, coughing up blood.  While a strong  sign of lung cancer, hemoptysis is also a hallmark of tuberculosis.  Now, it is often MAC disease, Mycobacterium aviae complex, a non-contagious cousin to TB, often affecting lungs previously damaged from pneumonia, where the bronchioles, the small airways, dilate, a condition called bronchiectasis, a nidus for such pathogens.  We used to say hemoptysis was a manifestation of bronchiectasis; I wonder today how many of those people in retrospect had MAC disease.

MAC can be treated with “triple therapy”–3 antibiotics, many used for TB.  If  widespread, the antibiotics have to be taken for life.  If localized, then part of the lung containing the disease may be taken out, and the disorder cured.

That’s pretty nice, to take somebody who is coughing up maybe a cup of blood periodically, and curing them.  Surgery can cure many bad problems.  I have three pins in my right hip after a car turned in front of my bicycle in 1999. Without surgery, I’d be limping or not walking at all.  Since surgery, I’ve backpacked Alaska five times, climbed mountains, canoed, and traveled all over the world, walking normally.  My surgeon gave me back my life.

The downside is that surgery is expensive.  So is anesthesia.  And hospitalization.  There are a lot of people employed in hospitals to check you in, care for you, get your medicines, your meals, get you out of bed, clean your room, and so forth.  But what is the price of good health?  Until you’ve had bad health, you probably don’t think much about good health’s being worth something.  It’s just that we can’t put a price tag on certain important things in life, like no longer having a condition that makes life pretty miserable and limits activity.  A lot of people no longer die quickly from conditions that may not be curable, but can be controlled for many years, like COPD, CLL (Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia), CHF (Congestive Heart Failure), HIV, and many others.

Being poor is both highly correlated and likely causative of ill health.  There are a lot of poor people in this country, a whole lot, for whom a lot of medical advances simply are too expensive for them.  They hope…..the abdominal pain will go away, the chest pain on exertion isn’t their heart, the recent onset of headache isn’t a brain tumor, or the recent fever isn’t something bad.  I hope, too, when I get one of these problems, but I can get it checked out and either be treated or reassured.  I don’t know what reassurance is worth, and I don’t think the Republicans in Congress think it is worth much either.  I can look up the price of Raytheon stock; I can put no price on my ability to be able to walk normally.  Most of us take our health for granted.

Until something bad happens.

The woman with MAC had insurance.  What if she didn’t?  The antibiotics are expensive in their own right–$60-$100 a month.  I know many people who need that money for other things, and not booze and cigs, either.  They have kids who need things, their cars break down, they need a new heater in their trailer.  Yes, trailer.  What if she can’t afford it?  She might be a great candidate for surgery, but she doesn’t have $25,000 or more to pay for the diagnostic tests and surgery.  So what does she do?

Coughs up blood and hope it goes away.  Maybe pray that she doesn’t exsanguinate.  There is a place for prayer, but not here.  We have the ability to treat these people.  Not to do so is betraying the ideals this country was founded upon.

In America, many believe that is the way it should be.  If you don’t have insurance, well, you don’t have insurance.  The market will deal with you.  Maybe you are lazy and on the dole, not doing real work like moving money around, which has been shown not to add value, unlike the minimal wage Nurse’s Aide who has to clean a patient who soiled himself (crapped in bed and was lying in it). I’ve done that, by the way, hundreds of times.  As a doctor, too.  Some weren’t born to wealth, had bad genes, parents who didn’t read to them, had a husband leave (after fathering a few kids, perhaps), and don’t have “connections”.  Or, they are unemployed, because unregulated fools believed in stupid models, made bad bets, got bailed out and were paid nice bonuses for doing it.  That is basically why our unemployment rate is so high.  You are out of luck, and there are 50 million “you’s” in America today.  The thought of insuring somebody, called the Affordable Health Care Act, derided by many as “Obama Care,” is an anathema to many.  Let the market take care of it.  Really?  We aren’t talking pork futures here; we are talking about people’s health.

What I find ironic is many who were angry about the AHCA were elderly and retired military, both of whom were getting government subsidized medical care.  The military earned it, although how much longer we as a country can afford to pay it remains to be seen.  If Medicare is going to be on the table, then so must defense spending.

The millions of poor people here don’t have the loud voices that Bill, Rush, Ann, Mitch, John and Eric have.  The Republican Party, who has voted in the House more than 33 times to repeal the Affordable Health Care Act, appears not to realize exactly how many poor people there are  It’s easy to forget, when one has insurance and can get any medical condition taken care of without worrying about bankruptcy.  But these 50 million are mostly silent, and not in the news.   I don’t see that cutting medical safety nets will do these 50 million much good.  Indeed, I see that expanding the safety nets to cover these people is a better idea, and I am willing to be taxed to do it, even though I already pay double the percentage of Mitt Romney.

There are conditions I saw as a neurologist that are totally devastating–like an anterior communicating artery aneurysm that blows out the frontal lobes, leaving somebody permanently in a nursing home physically intact but with the judgment of a 6 year-old.   That could happy to anybody–Republican, Democrat, rich, poor.  I’ve seen devastating strokes, infections, trauma, rapidly aggressive cancers ravage people or kill them outright, often with no warning.  A former colleague of mine was practicing cardiovascular surgery and was dead 10 weeks later from leukemia.  I can get T-boned by a red-light runner tomorrow, or run over by a distracted driver, when I am out for a walk.  I was almost at my Safeway store, the day of the Tucson Massacre.  My congresswoman is paralyzed and partially aphasic for life; her replacement was shot that day, too, uses a cane and now has to defend the 2nd amendment to get re-elected.  While there are scathing attacks on abortion, I haven’t seen legislation pass to ensure every child under the age of 18 gets covered for medical care.  This to me is right to life, which ends at birth.  There are those who espouse Christianity who call fetuses children but who are against covering all children’s medical care.  Since that passes as Christianity in this country, small wonder I am not religious.

Should people be responsible for themselves?  Well, it depends.  In the Ayn Rand world, every human does the right thing, and there is no cerebral palsy, no devastation from herpes encephalitis, no people tied to ventilators or oxygen tanks.  Ms. Rand was no saint, with a personal life that made Bill Clinton’s look normal.  I’ve read her books; they sound fine until you suddenly realize that she writes about a different universe from the one you live in.

To Rand Paul, and the others who think we should just care for ourselves, illness is our problem.  According to Mike Huckabee, God is punishing you, just as God punished Newtown.  Yes, godlessness in the schools caused Newtown.  I wrote Mr. Huckabee about that and never heard back.  I’ve seen thousands of lives devastated, families in pain, and many who have gone bankrupt. You?  Maybe some day it might be you in the bed looking up at somebody, hoping for relief of your misery, and being able to resume the life you took for granted.  That assumes, of course, that your brain is not the source of your being hospitalized, in which case you may not recognize anybody.  This stuff happens, you know.  I worked for 20 years in a small city caring for people with these things, and I was really, really busy.

Those of you who called paying for end of life decisions, derided as “Death Panels,” might walk a few meters in my shoes (that’s a few yards for Americans who read this), and think about those derogatory comments.  Here’s my op-ed four years ago 

You see, we can decide to be rugged individualists, which is really romantic, until other rugged individualists assert their rights over ours.  That’s a problem.  Or until we need help in a hurry, be it a flood, a fire, an earthquake, a horrible illness, or a car wreck where we are trapped in a vehicle with leaking fuel and a hot engine.  When that happens, most of the money you’ve got, the gold in your safety deposit box, the few bucks on your money clip, the spare jewelry you think will be worth a lot won’t be worth a tinker’s damn.

And then, just maybe then, you will learn that health insurance, Obama Care, clean nursing homes and freedom to die the way you choose, may be more important than you thought.

Finally, you might understand why it is worth spending taxpayer money on medical care.

COLD SNAP

January 17, 2013

Tucson recently went through a cold spell, where for 3 days the highs were under 50 F (10 C) and two record lows occurred, the coldest being minus 8. C.  It has been about 40 years since we had 4 straight days under 10 C.

A letter appeared in the paper calling it “global cooling.”  It is a fact that there were no  letters to the editor stating “global warming” when the National Weather Service announced two weeks ago that 2012 tied 1989 as the hottest year on record in Tucson.  Why would three cold days, not a record, constitute global cooling, yet the hottest year on record not be global warming?  For that matter, while the western US is very cold now, the eastern US is warm.  This is typical of jet stream waves to produce such a pattern.  I don’t expect everybody to understand the patterns of the jet stream; however, those who do not understand those patterns should not be writing letters saying this is global cooling, and the newspaper should not be publishing those letters.

A friend, who lives on the East Coast, well educated, although not in science, commented when I visited that 5 days in a row that Philadelphia didn’t break 40 F (5 C) was evidence against global warming.

The letter, the comment from my friend, and those who say that 3 feet of snow in their backyard is evidence against global warming exemplify that too many do not know the difference between weather and climate.  Many are so convinced that there is no global warming that they seize upon any cold weather event and ignore the warm weather ones.  We all are capable of this heuristic:  we hear about something crazy happening, and we say “There must be a full Moon.”  The times the Moon isn’t full (23 days a cycle, since 6 days it is 90% or more illuminated and looks full) are ignored.

We are warmer in June than we are in January.  The weather service has a line trending upward for the average highs and lows during this period.  But we all know that hot and cold days occur.  Once, about a decade ago, April was cooler than March in Tucson.  That had only happened once before in over 100 years.  Yet, nobody would consider thinking that May and June would be cooler, too.  I fail to understand then why a few cold days are treated as evidence against a long term, unheard of in our history as a species, trend.

We know that temperatures change in a jagged fashion trending upward in the early part of the year and trending downward at the end of the year.  One year, fewer than a quarter of Harvard seniors knew why.  This lack of a basic fact taught in elementary schools (my father 60 years ago authored textbooks that included this issue) suggests we have major flaws in educating our children about science.  I am further puzzled by the anger of many of the comments, which are often aggressive with frequent, irrelevant personal attacks.  Why the anger? I consider climate science a matter of models, of ocean level, pH and [CO2], ice core analysis, atmospheric aerosols and other variables, which can be checked for validity.  Al Gore, cap and trade, and so-called radical environmentalists are irrelevant.  The Earth requires storms to balance heat between the equator and poles; a warmer Earth will require frequent, more powerful storms.  I predict this will in fact happen in this century.  I may be wrong, but those on the other side offer very few predictions as to what they think will happen.  If we aren’t truly in the throes of global climate change, then I would like a prediction of the Earth’s temperature range during the next decade as well as to sea level, which currently is rising 3 mm a year. (due to glacier melt and expansion of warmer water).  I want a prediction with confidence intervals, since all predictions are prone to error, and the error must be quantified.

One way to look at this is to split the data in half, from 1930-1970, leave out 1971, a unique middle, and then look at 1972-2012.  We compare 1930 with 1972, 1931 with 1973, and so forth.  This is the Cox-Stuart Test, and it does not require the data to be normally distributed.  It is a non-parametric statistical test, and it is both easy and useful to apply.

1930-1972      67.3         67.9

1931-1973      67.2         66.4

1932-1974      66.4         67.3

1933-1975      66.8         66.3

1934-1976      69            68.3

1935-1977      66.5         69.4

1936-1978      67.9         69

1937-1979      67.2         68.3

1938-1980      67.5         69.4

1939-1981      68            69.6

1940-1982      68.9         67

1941-1983      67.3         67.8

1942-1984      68.5         68.1

1943-1985      70.2         68.7

1944-1986      67.4         70.3

1945-1987      67.2         69.2

1946-1988      68            70.5

1947-1989      68.1         71.4

1948-1990      67.8         69.6

1949-1991      67.3         69.1

1950-1992      69.4         69.8

1951-1993      68.3         70.2

1952-1994      68.2         70.9

1953-1995      68.5         70.3

1954-1996      70.6         70.6

1955-1997      67.4         69.8

1956-1998      68.8         68.1

1957-1999      69            69.6

1958-2000      68.9         70

1959-2001      68.2         69.7

1960-2002      67            70

1961-2003      67.1         70.7

1962-2004      68.2         69.3

1963-2005      68.6         70.8

1964-2006      66            70.2

1965-2007      67.1         70.5

1966-2008      67.4         70

1967-2009      68.1         71.2

1968-2010      68.1         70

1969-2011      68            69.9

1970-2012      67.3         71.4

We begin by assuming there has been NO change in the temperatures, since the status quo is usually taken to be accurate. If we find a change, which we will, we may determine the probability that change is random or is unusually high or low.  Therefore, we set the probability of 50% that one pair will be warmer/colder than the other.  If there has been no change in the past 82 years, then we treat the data as a simple coin toss 41 times.  We would expect 20-21 heads, but we would not be surprised if we had 22, 20, or frankly anywhere between 14 and 28, if we allowed chance intervals to have a probability of at least 5%.  “Anything is possible” is not an appropriate statement here.  I would consider a probability of  0.000001 or 0.049 unlikely, and that is typically where we draw the line in statistics, at 0.05.  Anything outside this range is considered not to be a chance event.  We define what is possible before we collect the data, so we don’t change around the probabilities to call something significant or not significant because it suits us to do so.

There were 32 instances where the second half was warmer than the first, 7 where it was cooler, and 2 ties.  Could this be a chance event?  Yes, it could, but the probability of its occurring if chance were operating here is far less than 1 in 10,000, much smaller than our 0.05 probability we stated at the outset, so we say this is not a chance event, and in fact the temperatures are increasing.  True, the increase is not linear, but we wouldn’t expect annual temperatures to be increasing linearly any more than we would expect the temperature between January and June to increase linearly, either.  That is one of the biggest concerns I have about people talking about a “cool year”.  There is natural variability, or common cause variation, and there is other variability, called special cause variation.  In Tucson’s case, it is likely that there is both heat island effect and global climate change causing the changes.  It is a fact that Tucson is becoming hotter, and this was just proven.  This being a  chance event is not only highly unlikely,;we defined ahead of time what that chance event interval must contain, and the value we obtained, the test statistic, was outside that interval.

To summarize the data in one more way:

  1. Six of the last 10 years ranked in the top 10 for warmest.  That is a fact.
  2. Since 1995, there have been 6.7 times as many high temperature records set as low temperature records (last year’s ratio was 18  to 2).  I counted them.  There were 161 record highs, 24 record lows.
  3. 3.  Last year, 7 months were in the top 10 for warmest; over the past 15 years. about a third have been in the top 10 for warmest.  I counted them.  
  4. 4. The probability in 2013 of Tucson’s being warmer than normal is greater than 99.9%, since there is a 14 year streak, and that would be expected to occur 1 in 16,384 times if it were random.  Since climate is not completely independent (one year’s temperatures may affect another’s) I decreased the probability slightly.

These are facts.  They are on the NWS Web Site .   There is no question among scientists that heat island effect has raised city temperatures in general and affected rainfall as well, and that by definition is manmade climate change. I’m stating facts.

For January in Tucson:

  1. Since 2003, five January average temperatures have been in the top 10.
  2. None has been in the bottom 10, the coldest January since 1934 was in 1937 with the average temperature 41.3.
  3. As of 16 January, Tucson’s average temperature is more than 43 F.  We are now in a warming trend, and long term models out the next 9 days suggest this will continue, although not be excessively warm.  Tucson will almost certainly not set a record low for January; it may yet be in the top 10 coldest, but that is by no means certain. What is clear is that this January is nowhere near a record OR a trend, for one cannot call a trend from a single point.

I mention these data, because too many seize upon a cold day or a freak snowfall to make their case, and few seem to challenge them. Others think that global warming means every spot on the Earth is getting warmer every year.  It doesn’t.  Publishing letters like that one at the outset allows obvious misperceptions to see the light of day, which they should not.  Precipitation patterns will change in a warmer world; in winter, that will take the form of snow, so heavy snow does not imply a cooler world.  Australia’s temperatures, now over 51 C in places (122 F.), are exactly what was predicted.  The shrinking of the Arctic Ice Cap was predicted.

I wish to be clear: the Earth is a greenhouse.  This is basic science; it explains why Venus is warmer than Mercury, although it is almost twice the distance from the Sun.  Were it not for water vapor and carbon dioxide, we would not be able to survive as a species.  We have changed the concentration of both key gases, as well as having a worrisome contribution from methane, should the permafrost melt, which I have seen in Alaska.  This is also a fact.  If anything, climate models appear to under-predict the severity of ice melt.  We have known acidification of oceans, because they buffer rising CO2 by absorbing it in the surface. The ocean rise will become a huge problem later this century, and warmer water will increase water vapor, the biggest greenhouse gas of all, causing a positive feedback loop.  These are all facts.  Whether specific extreme weather events are due to global climate change is not always clear (the Texas drought was caused, with 95% confidence, by climate change; Bangkok flooding was not), but the trend would certainly appear to be that way.

All this January cold spell will do is make it less likely that in 2013 Tucson will have the warmest year on record.  I predict with 99.9% probability 2013 will still be warmer than normal.

Those who deny climate change may be correct, but they must produce clear science from refereed journals (or refereed Internet sites) including confidence intervals or probability of error.  The IPCC is 95% confident, an admission that they may (unlikely) be wrong, because there is necessarily a degree of uncertainty in predicting the future behavior of a complex system.  I am clear what it would take for me to change my mind: a downward trend of global temperatures and Arctic ice melt through 2020, and the end of sea level rise.

I would request those who disagree to say what would change their mind.  If the answer is “nothing,” then the issue is no longer about science but faith or ideology, for uncertainty must exist about this issue. If Tucson had two consecutive years with below normal temperatures and normal rainfall resumed, I would reconsider my views.  We are in a severe long term drought with a 2 year deficit in rainfall in the last decade.  The normal rainfall of 12 inches was changed to a new “normal” of 11.5, and the annual average for the past 19 years has been fewer than 10 inches (fact).  That is why I call it climate change and not global warming; it’s more than temperature that is changing.

I am glad I am old and have no children to ask me, “Why didn’t you do something about climate change, Dad?  You knew it was occurring, and you could have changed the direction in your lifetime.”

Writing a letter, or even a column, as I did for the Medical Society (getting many negative comments from doctors), or posting on my blog seems like a pretty weak answer.  “I’m sorry” is even weaker.  And “I told you so, but you wouldn’t believe me” doesn’t help, either.  I hope I am wrong, but the probability of that is unlikely, and I know how unlikely.

Note on 21 January:  We are now looking a record heat for 2 days this week and the first 27 C (80F) day about 3 weeks earlier than normal.  The current January temperature is now 10th coldest and may remain below normal, although that remains to be seen.  I do not expect to see letters about the end of “global cooling”.

 

Final note:  January was 2.8 F below normal.  This is about in the 33rd percentile for January.  While the first half of the month was the 4th coldest, the second half was the 10th warmest.

Note for comments:  I went to great pains to try to avoid pejorative statements and to remain factual where there are facts and probabilistic where there were not.  Since I have the ability to delete comments, I will delete those that personalize the issue, which fail to meet my standards of decency, fail to show sound science, using peer-reviewed scientific journals, with p-values, confidence intervals, and models that show disagreements. Trend lines are unacceptable as proof of warming or cooling unless accompanied by regression diagnostics that show validity of the assumptions of normality and equal variance.  It is  expected that these terms are understood by the commenter.  If that sounds like a tall order, it is.  

SABATINA e.V.

January 11, 2013

I don’t know why I looked down the block in Melbourne, before I was about to cross a street, but I did.

I saw a sign “Bookstore: Books in Other Languages” and was immediately intrigued.  I have reached the stage in my German learning where I am reading books, and I thought there might be some good ones there.  I was not disappointed.

I found one by an author I knew, and then I picked up a paperback that said “Sterben Sollst Du für Dein Glück”  (You should die for your Happiness), by Sabatina James.  I read the back cover and was intrigued even more.  I bought both books and that night decided to start the James book.  It has changed me, just as Sabatina James has changed the lives of many.

Sabatina James was born in Pakistan and at an early age moved to Austria with her siblings and mother, to join her father, who was living near Linz, a small city in the northeastern part of the country, not far from the Czech Republic.  She went to school there and became a typical Austrian teenager–she became fluent in German, she liked the music, she had her friends, she did well in school.  But she had issues at home, where her mother had adhered to Pakistani traditions, Islam, and had learned no German.

Eventually, James had issues with her parents about her clothing, her hours, and where she went.  Her mother struck her several times.  James learned that she was betrothed to her cousin in Lahore, whom she had met only a few times.  Eventually, the family went to Pakistan, did the tour of the family in various parts of the country, and set up a betrothing–not a wedding–with Sabatina’s cousin.  She balked, loudly, at the betrothing, shaming her family.  When her parents and her siblings left, Sabatina remained behind, with her aunt, who ran the house.  Sabatina was put into two different Koran Schools, one so filthy that she was constantly sick, the other where the cleric at least listened to her ask questions about the Koran.  It should be noted that Sabatina’s having lived in Europe disqualified her from attending many such schools.

Eventually, Sabatina went along with the instruction, became a quiet, good Muslim young girl. She slept in the house where her betrothed lived.  He tried to get her to sleep with him; she was able to avoid that, but not his touching her while he masturbated. When her parents came back, they found a different girl.  Sabatina returned to Austria, where again, she slowly tried to regain her circle of friends.  Her parents kept pressing her to work on getting her fiancé’s visa for Austria.  She refused, and one day he came, the visa having been obtained by her parents.  She refused to marry him, and he parents put out a “death judgment” on her.

Since then, Sabatina has been on the run, occasionally her telephone number being found, and having to change it.  She converted to Christianity, because she found love in the Bible, and a lot more equality between the sexes than in Islam.  This makes her life even more dangerous.  She lives between the Islamic and Western worlds, and she founded Sabatina e.V. in 2006, a foundation for “Women in Chains”.  To say the stories are horrible is a gross understatement.  Women are burned, stoned, have acid thrown in their faces, beaten, and of course raped, even as young a 2 1/2 year-old, whose only crime was being born to a Christian family in Pakistan.  Five operations later, the child and family are safely in Canada.  Occasionally, one of these people is saved, but it is a drop in the bucket compared to the need.

About every day, the Facebook Site has pictures of women who have been beaten, raped, or otherwise severely abused.  Some commit suicide as their only escape from such a horrible existence.  I post on the site, but not often, and only when I am sure my German is acceptable.  I have pointed out issues here in the US.  We have yet to renew the Violence Against Women Act, because of LGBT concerns.  I am astounded that those who detest big government are quick to tell women what they should and should not do with their bodies, and that nearly all the testimony is from men.  I am astounded that  big government haters want the government to decide with whom somebody can live and love.  A woman who wants to have birth control covered by insurance was basically called a slut by Rush Limbaugh, whose gender, past drug abuse and body habitus hardly make him much better.  I’m told old people listen to him.  I’m old, and I find the man detestable.

We hear almost nothing about Ciudad Júarez, the most dangerous city on Earth, four hours from where I live, where every day in broad daylight, people are kidnapped without reason.  Others are gunned down, 120,000 dead in the last several years.  This information I pointed out to Sabatina e.V, noting that I did not hear about it in our local media, but in a German documentary, for apparently some Germans think this is a more pressing problem than how well the U of A basketball team is playing.

Why even try?  After all, this is liking trying to save companion animals, who die in the millions every year, without homes, because people want purebred breeds, the more exotic the better.  I call these “designer dogs,” because I seldom see a run-of-the mill mutt any more.  Sabatina is working for the tens of millions of abused women, and the female children, who in some places in India are killed at birth, because the family can’t afford a dowry.

Why even try?  A man, out for a walk along a beach, saw another man in the distance, throwing starfish into the sea.  “Why are you throwing them?” said the first man. “There are millions on this beach, and you can’t possibly make a difference.”

The second man threw another starfish into the sea.  “I made a difference for that one.”

Abnehmen und Zunehmen….weighty topics.

January 8, 2013

It was a chance event, as is so often the case.  About to take a shower, I happened to look in the mirror.  What I saw shocked me.  I had a protuberance in my abdomen.  No, it wasn’t ascites, or fluid, it was fat.

I got on the scale, to discover I weighed 172 pounds, about 78 kg.  I was shocked.  I hadn’t weighed that much in years.  What had happened?  I was older.  Apparently, my lifelong ability to eat just about anything I wanted was no longer lifelong.  I’m just under 6 feet tall (1.81 M), and I can carry about 180 pounds (82 kg) before I am officially overweight.  I was not overweight, but I didn’t like where I was.

I was a chemistry major in college and think in terms of thermodynamics.  If you burn more calories than you take in, you must lose weight.  You must.  It takes a deficit of 3500 calories to remove a pound of fat.  So, the first thing I did was start to exercise more, until I realized that while one burns calories, and fat calories, exercising, it takes a great deal of exercise to do such. One burns perhaps a net of about 100 calories running a mile and half that walking.  Net means the increase over doing nothing during that period.  I increased my runs to 2 miles and my walks to 3 miles, but that was only 350 calories.  If I doubled what I did, I could get a pound off in 10 days.  But that is a lot of time spent, and I was likely to get hungrier doing it.

So, I looked my diet as well and got a couple of shocks.  I was putting olive oil on my salad.  When I saw the calories it contained, I was astounded.  I shouldn’t have been, but I had never in 63 years looked at the calories something contained.  I stopped the olive oil and also eating peanut butter, which is arguably my most favorite food.  Peanut butter has 180 calories per tablespoon, 110 of them fat.  In short, I was really hungry several hours a day.

For two weeks, nothing happened.  I knew that would occur.

Then something nice did happen.  My weight started to fall.  I dropped to 170, stayed there another 2 weeks or so, then dropped to 168.  It took me about 4 or 5 months to get down to 162, where I wanted to be.  I looked better.  I started again with peanut butter, and I let my weight rise to 164.  It stayed there.

Then I made another mistake.  I stopped monitoring my weight, and we took a trip to Australia, where the food was good and the walking was less.  When I came home, I took another look in the mirror, and I didn’t like it.  I stepped on the scale,and I didn’t like that, either.  I was at 169.

The holidays are not a good time to lose weight.  There is a lot of food around.  But I decided I could eat that food, just not all at once.  I again stopped peanut butter, and I again put up with the annoying hunger between 8 and 11 in the morning.  After I ate lunch, I could get through to the afternoon.  After a week, I was holding around 168.  I could even see a slight change in the mirror, but it wasn’t enough.

Along the way, I have noted more cold sensitivity, too.  My metabolism has changed, and my weight goes to where it usually does in a man–the bad “apple” pattern.  From now on, I have to be careful.  But I didn’t wait until after the holidays to start. If I had, I might have been starting at 172 or higher, and I would then look wishfully at 168 on the scale and wonder why I didn’t stop sooner.

I’m lucky.  Most people would give their eye teeth to have my problem.  On the other hand, I don’t let friends talk me into eating something.  Fortunately, I don’t have a lot of friends.  But I know many who say “just a little, it won’t hurt.”  They aren’t true friends.  True friends keep you away from food.  They support you.

A recent video I saw in German chronicled a former British singer, who has dealt with 25 kg weight changes, 55 pounds, or almost 4 stones.  (I thought pounds were bad; the video was in German, and I was fascinated to hear the quick translation of stones–14 pounds– to kg.)  This yo-yo effect is not healthy.  The singer tried hypnosis so she would hate ice cream, and various other diets.  Part of the problem was her husband, who was not interested in controlling his weight, and thought she looked just fine–the “I like big butts”– approach.  This woman was a model,, and she had to keep her weight down.  She was frequently in places where there was a lot of food available, which didn’t help.

The saddest scene was her vacation, where she tried to see what would happen with ice cream, her favorite food. That was fine, but she should have had a small amount.  Instead, she ordered a glass that was about 20 cm tall.  She ate it all, and later said she had only gained 6 pounds that week.  That is a huge gain in a short period of time; when 6 pounds gained for a person with a weight problem is not a “big deal”, there is a problem.

Controlling weight is easier for me than it is for others.  It requires a change in lifestyle, which is terribly difficult to do.  But there are plenty of ways to fill up a stomach without gaining a lot of weight.  Get on a scale daily or every other day.  Look for low calorie recipes. Make good tasting food invisible.  Shop after eating, not before.

Obesity is a problem.  Too many look for sites where it is claimed that obesity is healthy, pretty, or fine.  It isn’t.  We used to say staying thin was a matter of willpower.  In part, it is, but only in part.  A lot of foods have become truly addicting, and it is difficult to break an addiction.  The Food Pyramid is a new concept; the old way of looking at a balanced diet favored milk farmers.  But, there are things people can control.  Early in life, we need to address obesity, when it is less and easier to change behavior.

Using an on line Body Mass Index calculator , we calculated the BMI in every sixth grader in one school district, 1100 children in 5 schools.  Seven per cent were over the 99th percentile, 14% over the 95th percentile, and the median was the 89th percentile.  Put succinctly, the typical child was overweight.  Nothing was done, when these data were presented to the school district.  Nor were these numbers known or repeated when there was a $15 million federal grant to reduce obesity in Tucson.  We have a willpower problem in our city; lack of will to measure problems that need measurement, and lack of will to deal with them.  We have an addiction problem, too; we are addicted to fluff TV ads to tell people to exercise and eat right.  Everybody knows that; if we started in childhood and really were serious about the problem, I suspect the numbers would change.  That, of course, requires yearly measurement, which is hardly rocket science, but is ironically not being done in an area that hosts Raytheon and the Titan Missile Museum.

I hit 166 the other day.  I look forward to lunch like I never have before.  The Christmas food gifts will last until late-January.