Archive for January, 2017

TELESCOPES AND MARCHES

January 23, 2017

I was at the Eugene Astronomical Meeting the other night for the annual selling of astronomical stuff people no longer need, a sort of a swap meet-flea market atmosphere.  Several from the community came with telescopes they had received for Christmas and weren’t sure how to use them.

Because nobody had come forth to help one man in a wheelchair, who had a nice Newtonian ‘scope, I did what I could until another man came by giving me a curt “what are you doing, Bud?” before helping.  At my age, which was probably about 10 over his, I don’t like being called Bud.  I was a bit stung and left to wander around.  I don’t like being around a lot of people. Nearby, near the door of the planetarium, which is where we were meeting, I watched as a father, his presumed wife, and a pre-teen boy were getting help with a telescope.  This was clearly a father-son event, as the woman stood away quietly.  They got some help, then the father said he had to leave, because he was getting up at 1 am to work.  He was working two jobs.

Yeah, two jobs.  He’s looked like he was in his early 30s, got a son who is interested in the night sky, and bought a decent first telescope for both of them.  Two jobs. This is tough. Bringing up a kid, also tough, but he’s teaching the boy something about the night sky.  Good father.  Times are bad now, and they are going to be more so.  I have no idea what jobs the man was doing, only that nowadays, there exists the notion that somehow we can bring back the manufacturing era we once had, before just making steel was changed into making certain kinds of steel and other countries starting making their own, too.  We once made all the cars; we passed Japan in 2011 for second place, behind China, and have made as many as we ever have as of 2015.   As for mining, the big coal mining company Peabody went bankrupt last year, and coal, while cheap, is a less efficient-more polluting source of energy than natural gas, and renewables are competitive, especially if we factor in the environmental costs of coal and gas.  There isn’t a long term future in coal mining, only in trying to reclaim lands mined, and that’s a lost cause.

We could of course increase the forestry jobs in Oregon from the current 61,000 if we just cut everything down.  I use “cut down” over harvesting, because that is what we do.  Harvesting sounds a lot nicer, but harvesting corn works for me and harvesting trees doesn’t.  The forests are supposedly producing at a sustainable yield, but it sure bothers me to see the recent clearcut at the top of Cougar Summit on Highway 126 between here and Florence.  It will take decades to regrow. While replanting has to occur so that a tree is a certain height in 6 years, it will be a minimum of 60 and preferably longer years before the trees have begun to mature, in more or less a monoculture, meaning less biodiversity.  I realize we have to have wood, but we could do without a lot less paper, and the scars on the land, the aerial spraying of poison that wafts over people (documented high levels of atrazine in urine), and the loss of biodiversity.  If we had fewer kids, we wouldn’t need the 11-13 jobs paying $36K a year that a million board feet of lumber produces.  Of course, we could cut it all, damn the Murrelets and spotted owls, because we have a political party in power that can, but then after a flurry of jobs, there will be nothing, except complaints about how the Democrats killed the forest jobs.  It’s sort of like the collapse of the fishing industry off the Grand Banks.  The fish were thought to be infinite, but in the space of a few years they were gone.  If your time span of discretion, how long you plan ahead when you are dealing with life issues, is the next day, you cut everything down now.  If your time span of discretion is a decade, uncommon, then you don’t.

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The two job guy had been on my mind for a while, when two days later I went to the Women’s March in Eugene, almost as an afterthought.  I don’t like to be around a lot of people, and I wondered whether it would really matter.  The one we had was big for Eugene, the biggest ever here, and we have a history of protests and marches. No, it wasn’t the half million in DC, but 7000 in a small town is impressive.  I was humbled by the diverse people who have always been around, only recently in a reasonable political climate able to exist freely and openly.  This includes women, LGBTQxx (the xx are mine, because I am frankly so far behind the curve in this area that I am probably missing something), and every group that voted for My Side last election.  I came because I thought I should.  I took the bus downtown, where we were stuck crossing the Willamette River in heavy traffic.  Eventually, the bus driver opened the doors for those of us who wanted to join the crowd, and I got off.

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Harry Potter reference; personally, I have spent a lot of time in swamps, canoeing.

I took in everything I could, the energy of a heavily feminine crowd, the signs, the creativity of what they wrote, the anger they had about their treatment, yet anger tempered with a sense of humor, too.  I was in a group of mostly young, smart, articulate people who were damned if they were going to have to put up with what was coming.  As an old white guy, my presence probably helped some people realize not all of us are stodgy Republicans.

What struck me the most occurred later, when I saw an elderly woman, short to begin with, shorter still with the kyphosis of age.  She had to have been in her 80s or 90s.  She wore anti-white supremacy buttons and pushed a wheeled walker—in 43 degree temperature, rain, and significant wind.  She was there because this was a women’s rights march, she for whatever reason was not going to miss it.  I wondered what she did in life, her relationships with men, what she felt.  I was humbled by her presence and equally humbled seconds later by a couple my age standing on a corner, the woman dressed as a suffragette, carrying a sign saying “We Will Not Go back.”  Out in the street a group of women marched by holding a sign honoring women pioneers of all sorts, many of whose names I did not know. The young I knew would show up.  The middle aged ones I expected would.  The presence of the elders moved me deeply, and reminded me that half of humanity has not been allowed to reach its potential.

I needed to be there to support the elders; I needed to be there to be educated, to remember, and in some way to act.  I want to hide.  I must not, for I am in the position where I can help women, those less fortunate, and maybe those working two jobs.

1458.

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An Elder, marching.

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Bernie’s supporters, se habla español también.

INTO THE LONG, DARK TUNNEL

January 18, 2017

A few years ago, I had dinner with an old friend, who brought his sister, an ED nurse.  In the conversation, she complained bitterly about people who didn’t have money who sought care in the ED.  They were dirty, smelly, unkempt, “frequent fliers” who misused the system.

My wife asked, “Should they just leave and die?”

The nurse replied, “Yes.”

I am not making this up.

I have been quiet regarding the future of the country.  In large part, I was worn out mentally from the sense I had had for months that the outcome would not be good.  I have long learned when people tell me everything is going to be OK, without solid facts to back up their assertions, it may not be.  I had said for a long time that the Democrats had a good chance of losing the election.  I was right.

We are now entering a time of darkness in America. I have been quiet, because I first had to process how this could have happened, then deal with conflicting emotions about what I was going to do or not do as a result.

I will start with the Affordable Care Act.  That is its name. Use it.  Words matter.  It will be repealed, should the Republicans have their way, and in the foreseeable future they will—8 years minimum in the Executive Branch (you don’t think the Democrats can win again in 4 years, do you?), a generation (20 years) or two in the Judicial, and judging by all the Democratic senators up for re-election in 2018, at least 8 years in the Senate, if not permanently—the ACA and other safety nets are on the chopping block.  I’m hoping the American public will eventually see through this unraveling, but I have little confidence in the American public, who could care less about ideas and competence and more about “scandals to go,” and fail to call bullies out on their lies.

The Republicans have had an irrational hatred of the ACA from its inception and now can kill it. If they had a solid plan to replace it (besides prayer, medical savings accounts, GoFundMe and staying healthy), that they were ready to roll out this spring, had the Democrats only been less intransigent, that would be another matter.  But no, the ACA is being repealed without a replacement.  The CBO (Congressional Budget Office) says this would increase deficits $137 billion by 2025 (about $350 billion total in the interval, from looking at their graph) and increase the uninsured 32 million , many of whom being poor rural whites who voted for the president-elect, ironically, because they didn’t seem to understand until now the consequences, because, well, Hillary couldn’t be trusted and what did we have to lose?….)

The incoming president says he will cover everybody with insurance, but Congressional Republicans have no knowledge of his plan.  Repealing something that is working, however imperfectly, without a plan to replace it is a bad idea.  I am reading letters and posts from people who complain that “the rest of us are subsidizing them.”  One who agrees, a good friend, has a pension and is on Medicare.  Those of us who bought his product and live in America pay for his health care, too.  It’s just not as obvious.  It’s like the Interstate Highway or the National Park System.  They are national, and those in the west for the most part enjoy them on the backs of taxpayers in the east, who are remarkably patient with us.  Of course poor people need subsidies to get medical care.  Did you think they suddenly became rich?  In the past, they were excluded by having pre-existing conditions or skipped care altogether, like columnist Nicholas Christoff’s friend, who one day saw blood in his urine, ignored it because of costs, and discovered months later he had Stage IV prostate cancer.  His friend is dead.  Is that what we want in America?  If I am wrong, please tell me, so I will know I no longer belong in this country, for I say it is NOT wrong to try to cover people who have illnesses that the rest of us should be glad we don’t have. The America I served in uniform overseas is about compassion, not a strict fairness/pull yourself up by your bootstraps/I made it by working and so should you/don’t be so damn lazy/it’s my money not yours. Each of us is a microbe, an aneurysm, a bad driver, a malignant cell, or a blood clot away from incurring a massive multimillion dollar hospital bill.  EACH OF US.  Not providing medical care when we could is immoral.  Yes, immoral.  Of course the ACA costs a lot of money.  Twenty million people are accessing medical care who either didn’t access it earlier or weren’t able to pay for it, and it was subsidized by medical personnel like me or hospitals, who couldn’t buy capital equipment or hire more nurses to improve staffing levels.  Some might say that hospitals should do that anyway and pay administrators less.  I agree, but as one who practiced medicine and became a medical administrator, let me assure you that practicing physicians have neither the knowledge, the discipline, nor the time to run a hospital.  Having a system that isn’t paying executives such outrageous sums would be a good start.  But it won’t insure millions of people.

The ACA has become like climate change, a hatred of something that goes beyond facts to an ideology that ignores facts. With climate change, there is a small definable chance the extremely high confidence we have that it is manmade is wrong.  To argue it can’t possibly be occurring means an individual knows all the salient parameters of the Earth and its atmosphere, how they interacted in the past and how they will interact in the future. That is simply not possible.  The ACA is working for many millions of Americans.  It is far from perfect, a fact due to the intransigence of Republicans who never planned to vote for it and who didn’t try to make it better, only tried to kill it, like the stimulus.  All sorts of catastrophes predicted did not come true.  The ACA hasn’t ruined America, but enough loud people have said that long enough that the public believes it without realizing the numbers of uninsured are at their lowest levels in since about mid-1960s,  when we had about 100 million fewer people in this country, medical care was far cheaper, back in the days when you called a doctor’s office for an appointment, the first question asked was about your medical problem, not your insurance.  Don’t remember that?  I sure do.

I remember In 1984, my colleagues and I basically bankrolled the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System, Arizona’s answer to Medicaid, by not being paid for patients we saw (AHCCCS Non-Certified, which we pronounced Access Non-Cert) because the system didn’t find patients with no insurance until after they came to the ED.  We didn’t like it, but you know what?  We made good money anyway in spite of not being paid for these people. Yeah, I hated being called out at 2 am to see some uninsured drunk guy who wrecked his motorcycle and wasn’t wearing a helmet, because Arizona had repealed that law in 1976.  If the patient were lucky, he might have had enough brain function to cuss me out, threaten to sue me, and not end up in a nursing home vegetative.  It wasn’t fair to me, but life isn’t fair.  I got over it. You don’t let these people die at the side of the road, unlike what folk hero Dr. Ron Paul said, to great applause in 2008 and my friend’s sister said that night at dinner.  We don’t behave that way in my America.

Want to get rid of insurance company markups, high salaries and all sorts of exclusions?  Then expand Medicare, which has such a low overhead and high favorably rating by the elderly that some elderly argued against the ACA by saying, “Keep your government hands off my Medicare,” not even aware the Medicare was government subsidized medical care.  Yes, your taxes would go up, and you would lose money if you were not sick enough in a given year.  In exchange would be peace of mind that a major medical bill wouldn’t bankrupt you.  A physician friend’s husband had a $40,000 ED bill  for a kidney stone. Is it not a good thing to pay for insurance you may not use?  I consider it a good year if my veterinary medical bills are more than my personal ones.  If my house burns down, I have fire insurance. I have peace of mind, a concept apparently not appreciated  by many, because it doesn’t have a dollar sign preceding it.  People with peace of mind about their health tend to be happier. We learned that from the Oregon study where those who received insurance in a lottery didn’t spend time worrying about what would become of them if a child got meningitis, a person passed blood in their urine, they had chest pain, leg swelling, or a breast lump.  I don’t begrudge being taxed to pay for basic health insurance for everybody any more than I don’t begrudge repairing I-35 in Minnesota, for it is part of a national road system, or repairing tornado damage in Alabama. With the latter, however, to be honest, if those people are so anti-government, maybe they should try prayer, passing the hat, or just picking themselves up and doing their own repairs.  I protested paying for a war in Iraq that I felt was unnecessary and illegal, and I resent paying for the 75,000 major hospitalizations annually due to gun violence, when a few decide that we won’t even do background checks.  I resented paying for law enforcement to deal with the occupiers in Malheur, when they broke several laws, bullied people, ruined a small town, and tried to take over lands that belong to me, too.  Life isn’t fair.  Act to change things. I write. That’s my voice.

We have yet to deal with the quality of medical care, which the ACA addressed only slightly.  We haven’t adequately addressed end of life and preventive care, plus a host of other issues that would save money, help people and bring peace of mind simultaneously.  To repeal a major first step, because by God, nobody should get something for nothing in this country, is to condemn many people to bankruptcy, misery, and death.  I thought America was better, but I was conned.  Not by the presidential candidate, but by the gullibility and incredible cowardice of the media and the stupidity of the American public.

It’s time to enter the tunnel.  I will keep my light with me.  I also know which way north is.

NASSAU GROUPER

January 16, 2017

In nature there are neither rewards nor punishments; there are consequences.                           (Robert Green Ingersoll).

I recently went to Newport, Oregon on a Club Trip, planning to see the king tides, walk a lot, sleep in a yurt, and hike the nearby Drift Creek Wilderness.  I did all that, but the highlight of the trip came hearing Dr. Scott Heppell talk one evening about real biology—at a brewery no less.

The Nassau Grouper is an interesting fish.  Near the top of the food chain, it gets close to divers, not to eat them, but enough in the way where one really wants it to move. That is almost cat-like.  Yes, like some cats I know, they won’t eat lion fish, an invasive, unless it is speared.  And pointed out.  One apparently was over a reef pointing—“bird dog” was the term used—at a lion fish that he wanted speared.  Life is remarkable.

The Grouper has an interesting pattern of breeding.  They have special areas to breed, the same place, right after the first full Moon after the winter equinox, unless the full Moon is before the 15th of January.  Then they wait another cycle.  Why?  Good question.  Somebody needs to answer it.

When they breed, it is an explosion of sperm and eggs in the water, eventually producing fish larvae, and if a hundred thousand fish were involved, it must have been a remarkable sight.  I use the past perfect, because this number no longer exists in the Caribbean.  Indeed, had it not been for the work of a few people in the Cayman Islands and a few researchers like Dr. Heppell, it would never again occur in the Caribbean.

The Grouper breeds in certain small areas, and it isn’t clear why they do.  Unfortunately, when they breed, it is easy for them to be overfished, which has happened.  Equally unfortunate, once a breeding place is overfished, it never recovers.  This happened first in Bermuda, where they acted early—1970s—and have kept a reasonable population.  The US acted in the 1990s and today there is a 1 in 20 probability that somebody diving in the right waters will see one.  It was once ten times higher.

There were perhaps 50 known areas in the Caribbean where the fish bred, including several around the Caymans.  All have almost completely disappeared, the largest off Little Cayman. I have the GPS coordinates and the time when this will occur. The former area at the other end of the island is gone.  About 15 years ago, two men and a boat, just two, pulled 4000 groupers out of the last breeding area in a couple of days’ fishing.  Not having enough refrigeration, the fish were dumped and allowed to rot. That galvanized action. It is amazing how often when things finally rot, something changes.  It’s better than no change, but it would be nice if somehow we could act sooner.

The Cayman government wished to protect this last area, which  had about 1500 fish left. The fishermen objected for three reasons: (1) the fish would replenish themselves from somewhere else, (2) Babies came from somewhere (not stated) and (3) if it were too late, it wouldn’t matter, which I call the end of the world excuse.

The researchers began studying the fish more, and they did exactly what I was thinking while I listened, now with rapt attention, in Rogue Brewery in Newport, Oregon.  There is a monthly talk here, a great idea.  The researchers first tagged the fish to get an idea of numbers.  They marked a certain number of fish, so that when they looked later, once they knew the percentage of fish in the population that were marked, they knew the population.  It’s a good way to estimate; furthermore, the error of the estimate was known, error not a bad thing but a way of saying that different estimates would have certain values, and other values were just plain impossible, which eliminates common statements like, “anything can happen.”  No, anything cannot happen.  The researchers actually implanted chips into the fish to track them.  They studied currents at various depths by placing  sondes at a specified depth to track currents, learning that during the full Moon, the currents did loops.  Why?  We don’t know.  Why are certain places used for breeding?  We don’t know that, either.  But we know a lot more.

We know that the fish don’t swim from one Cayman to another, over a trench 6000 feet (1800 m) deep.  That fact wasn’t known.  We know that because sound buoys at the other Cayman islands didn’t hear these fish.  We knew where the fish tended to live, and it was all around Little Cayman.  At the time of the proper full Moon, we learned they didn’t all go at once to the breeding area.  They went individually, often taking several trips around the island before they arrived.  That last piece of information was important.  It meant that making the breeding area protected around breeding time was insufficient.  The fish were more on the move before and afterwards, and they needed to close the whole island to fishing for four months, where the fish were not so widely dispersed.

As for the comment that fish would be replaced from some other place, that was impossible, for there were no other places left of note in the Caribbean.  Overfishing has consequences; sure, it’s fine to have a job, but too many jobs in areas that aren’t sustainable lead to nobody’s having a job.  It’s sort of like logging. Somehow in all the “job” talk, nobody mentions “fewer children.”  Maybe that’s because we are stuck on “growth,” when “growth” can’t continue forever. Does anybody think China can grow at 8% for the next century?

Spearing fish was banned, along with limiting diving.  The fish weren’t coming from anywhere else.  Once the fell below a certain population, they stopped breeding.  They’re gone. No more job.  Once the fish are gone, work is gone. The researchers also learned that the fewer the fish, the more time they spent in the breeding area, and the higher their risk.

There was, however, good news in all of this.  The numbers have actually risen the past few years.  Mind you, they aren’t great, only about 2500 now in the breeding area, but they aren’t 500, either, and this increase had never been documented previously.  We have some understanding of their life cycle and biology, and the Cayman government not only continued the ban until 2019, they have written legislation citing the biology known.  The Caymans have become the model for how to manage a fish.  It’s a shame it took several thousand rotting fish and overfishing to make this change, but at least it was changed.  Whether the fish ever return to the area where they were before is not known. The fish do check out the old site near breeding time, but none has gone back there to breed.  If that ever becomes a breeding spot, it would be marvelous.

Doing the right thing has consequences.

A TIDE IN MY AFFAIRS

January 6, 2017

Warning: This post will contain some mathematical formulae and terms, which may scare or otherwise turn off some.  I hope such formulae do not detract from the beauty of what will be seen, because indeed, mathematics is beautiful.  It answers questions.  Is that not beauty?  In a week, pictures of the result will be shown.

I’m going over to Newport, Oregon next week to see the King Tides, something I had once never heard of.  I am almost a true Oregonian, but when I led a trip to the coast the last week, I forgot to look up the tides. That’s inexcusable.  Always know the tides when you are at the ocean.

Tides matter.  A lot.  In nature, many species thrive at border zones between one ecosystem and another.  They allow for organisms to live in varying degrees of wetness, rather than always wet or always dry.  They allow for tidal pools to become cut off from the ocean, where periodically they get refilled or organisms shuffled.  Without tides, the Earth would be a very different, far less diverse place.

What are tides, anyway?  They are common throughout the universe.  If one object tugs on another, it can deform the latter due to gravitational attraction, which may cause buckling or movement of the surface of the attracted object.  Jupiter’s moon Io gets tugged by massive Jupiter, causing volcanic eruptions on its surface.  The first was spotted by a woman, Linda Morabito, who saw a plume on Io, which had been once thought once to be dead, then had volcanism predicted.  Io is the most volcanically active place known in the solar system.

Both the Sun and Moon tug on the Earth.  While the Moon is much smaller, a mass 1/27,000,000 that of the Sun (mass is the amount of “stuff” something has; weight is the effect of gravity.  Diet removes mass; being in zero gravity does not, but it makes you weightless), the Moon exerts a majority (55%) of the tidal activity on the Earth.

For a long time, that 55% bothered me, because gravitation is proportional to the product of the masses but inversely proportional to the square of the distance, the distance between the two centers, or d, and the numbers didn’t work.

F=G m1 m2/d^2.

where G is the gravitational constant, m1 the mass of one body, m2 the mass to the second, and  d^2=d*d, the distance between them multiplied by itself.  The Moon is smaller, less massive, but it is much closer than the Sun.  Still, if one compares the large mass of the Sun with its admittedly larger distance from us (400 times further from the Moon, and the distance varies, which is important), the Sun ought have an effect 170 times greater than the Moon upon us.  It doesn’t, and that bothered me.  I show this below.  Gravity is the reason we circle the Sun and not the Moon; the Moon circles both of us.  I did not consider tidal forces, those which work differentially on a body, more on the near side than the far side.  These Ah-hah moments are one of the joys of life, when one understands a concept that has been murky for years.

The Moon tugs on the Earth, the oceans are pulled towards the Moon. Tides are maximal in general when the Moon is either overhead or at the opposite side, although that can vary considerably due to other factors and local conditions, which give rise to enormous tides at the Bay of Fundy or tidal bores on Turnagain Arm in Alaska.  The tide is greater (spring tides, nothing to do with the season) when the Moon is lined up with the Sun and the Earth, occurring about every 15 days, and lesser (neap tides) when the Moon is not aligned.  The square of the distance means that anything decreasing distance increases the tide, so when the Moon is close to us, which happens every 27.5 days, even not well aligned with the Earth and Sun, the tides are significantly affected. The Earth is 3 million miles closer to the Sun in early January compared to early July, and this increases tides as well, because while the Sun’s force is slightly less than the Moon’s, its distance from us is the least for the year. That’s why we’re going to Newport.

In Newport, king tides occur at full Moon in January, near perihelion.  The full Moon is opposite the Sun, meaning that it is in the northern part of the celestial sphere, over the northern hemisphere, and therefore is closer to the coastal cities there.

I also didn’t know why the Moon had a greater pull, given the gravity equation.  The numbers didn’t work. I thought—incorrectly— it was all gravity.

The tidal force looks at slight changes in the distance between the two bodies; the force is proportional to the cube of the distance between the bodies, d^3, or d*d*d, and a simplified proof is shown below.  Cubes are volumes, and the three factors are length, width, and depth.  When we compare the gravitational equation using the cube of the distance and twice the mass product, the Sun is responsible for about 45% of the tidal force; the Moon the rest.

Additionally, the lowest tide is not in January, as one would think, but is in the late spring early summer and at New Moon.  Why?  In May, the Earth is further from the Sun, so the Sun’s pull is less.  But at New Moon, which aligns with the Sun, the Moon is over the northern hemisphere. There are issues with the lunar nodes and the tilt of the Earth’s axis at different times of the year.  Tides are more complex than I thought, not due to simple gravitational pull but to a differential force that must be accounted for. When I go to Newport, I will be watching a 3 meter high tide and the -0.5 meter low tide, both a full meter higher than normal.

 

 

F(S-E)=Gm (S)*m(E)/d(S-E)^2. The Sun-Earth gravitational force is proportional to the product of the masses and inversely proportional to the distance between their centers. The same holds for the Moon-Earth.  It also holds between you and your computer, too.

F(M-E)=Gm (M)*m(E)/d(M-E)^2

Let’s take the ratio of the Sun-Moon forces which is dividing the top by the bottom.  Stay with me, because G and m(E) will disappear when we divide, because they are part of both.

Ratio=m(S)/d(S-E)^2 divided by m(M)/d(M-E)^2

When we divide, we invert the divisor, which is the value that is “going into” something.

If we divide 1 by 1/3, we invert the 1/3 and have 1 *3/1 or 3.  One-third goes into 1 three times.

If we do this math, we invert the denominators and have

Ratio=m(S)*d(M-E)^2 divided by m(E)*d(S-E)^2

We know these ratios.  The mass of the Sun is 27,000,000 that of the Moon.  The distance to the Moon is about 1/389 the distance to the Sun.  Let’s call it 1/400.  By the way, in the sky, the Moon is about the same angular size as the Sun, which is why we can just have total solar eclipses. The Sun is about 400 times the diameter of the Moon and is about 400 times further away, so they have about the same size when viewed from the Earth, one of the greatest cosmic coincidences there is.

The ratio of forces is about 27000000/400^2, or 169.  But the Sun is actually less powerful as the Moon in producing tides.  Tidal forces are differential and work differently on one side of the body versus the other.  Tidal forces are not the same as gravitational forces. They work as the inverse cube, not as the inverse square.  A cube here is d*d*d or d^3.  We measure volume when we know three factors—length, height and depth.

The ratio can be done by subtracting the force of the two objects from the front by the force from  the back.  Or, and this is why calculus was invented, we can take the derivative of the gravitational force with respect to the distance, because only the distance is changing, not the masses, and derivatives of constants are zero, making life a lot easier.  Here, we deal with the change of distance.

The derivative of Gm1m2/d^2 with respect to d is -2Gm1m2/d^3.  The bottom line, literally, is a cube, and the differential force for tides is a function of the cube of the distance, not the square.  If we look at the above ratio, we get 27,000,000/400^3 and it is 0.42.  If we use the average figure of 389 times further away, we get 0.46.  Tides are much more complex, but the idea of the inverse cube ratio is why the Moon exerts a greater tidal force on us than the Sun.

A second proof for tidal forces being proportional to the inverse cube of the distance is abbreviated, but goes something like this:

Force of Sun (Fs)= G(SE)/d^2, where G is the gravitational constant and SE is the Sun Earth distance.  We could make it the lunar distance if we wanted to.

The distance is slightly different on the other side of the Earth, so we will call that p.

F(SE-near or s1)-F(SE far or s2)=G (SE)/d^2-G(SE)/(d+p)^2

=G(SE){(1/(d+p)^2)-(1/(d^2)}, d is much greater than p or d>>p.  We have factored out G(SE), which is common to both.

Look at the parentheses, and using common denominator subtraction,

(d^2+2dp+p^2-d^2)/(d+p)^2d^2

=2dp+p^2/(d^4+2d^3p+d^2p^2)

=2dp/d^4,  skipping some steps, since as d gets very large, the denominator approaches d^4,

=2p/d^3

From earthsky.org, which is nowhere near scale but shows where tides come from.

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