Archive for August, 2016

BE PREPARED–TOTALLY–FOR THE 2017 SOLAR ECLIPSE

August 29, 2016

(Opinion piece, Eugene Register-Guard, 28 August 2016).

In less than a year, a long awaited total solar eclipse, perhaps the most beautiful sight in nature, will make landfall in Oregon, crossing 14 states in all before leaving in South Carolina. While the entire country will see some portion of the Sun covered by the Moon, the path of totality, where the Sun is completely covered, will be only 60-70 miles wide. Here in Oregon, totality will last from a few seconds at the edge of the path to 2 minutes, 9 seconds on the centerline at the Idaho border. The path is shown below.

Oregon is one of the best places climatologically to see this eclipse.   Many will come here from all over the world, an economic boon to the state and an excellent educational opportunity.  Watching day turn rapidly into twilight, seeing the black disk of the Moon block the Sun, allowing us to view the Sun’s thin corona, bright stars and planets visible, will be unforgettable.

Sadly, many will view the eclipse on television or not at all, afraid of non-existent “damaging rays” that occur during totality.  Ironically, no eye protection is necessary to view a totally eclipsed Sun.  Others will worry that the eclipse will cause natural disasters, wars, miscarriages, and a host of other myths, rather than just being a rare, beautiful natural occurrence.

The rules are simple: be on the totality path at the right time, and if the Sun is not obscured by clouds, you will see a beautiful spectacle for perhaps 2 minutes.  The most important rule is that any time part of the Sun is visible, you must use adequate eye protection: mylar eclipse glasses, #14 welding filters, commercial solar filters for optics, or indirect projection, NOT X-Ray or other film, sunglasses or staring at the Sun. Eclipse glasses are cheap and easily available. In Eugene, the eclipse is 99.3% total; the whole event must be viewed with eye protection. The southern limit of totality is a line from Waldport to Sisters. Viewers in Sweet Home and Finley WR will see a total eclipse; Monroe and Marcola will not.

I hope many who have never seen totality will see this eclipse and be as thrilled as I have been the sixteen times I have stood under the Moon’s shadow.

I have concerns about how we will handle perhaps half a million or more visitors to Oregon’s eclipse path. The last total eclipse here was February 26, 1979; far more people are interested in viewing one today, especially in summer.  Traveling to this eclipse at the last minute will be difficult.  Eclipses don’t wait and don’t care about the carrying capacity of roads.  Eastern Oregon, a prime eclipse viewing site, has limited road access, hotel rooms and campgrounds.

Once on the eclipse track, across the state, it is likely many will be more focused on finding a place to set up to view the eclipse than traffic, other drivers, or private property.  I-5 crosses the track for nearly 70 miles.  There will be the usual heavy commercial traffic, some who aren’t aware an eclipse is occurring may be startled by sudden darkness at about 10:20, some who will look while driving, others who slow down or pull off the road, get out, and look.  This is a bad combination.

Eclipses are weather dependent.  If there is smoke, common this time of year, or if a weather system makes parts of the eclipse track foggy or cloudy, many viewers will be moving at the last minute.  Count on it.  I have moved my site during five eclipses.  People pay a lot of money for eclipse tours and expect to be successful; cloudiness may cause craziness.  Paying attention to weather forecasts will be important.

Oregon is literally totally first in 2017.  The eclipse is coming and we can’t change, move, or control it.  Let’s see this wonderful event, but let’s also plan for the days and minutes prior to the eclipse.  We must protect not only our eyes from harm, our minds from those who claim an eclipse is something scary or frightening, which it isn’t, but ourselves from accidents and ill-fortune in a very infrastructure-stressed Oregon on a most special day: August 21, 2017.

Michael S. Smith, retired neurologist, member of the Eugene Astronomical Society, has seen 16 total eclipses from the ground, sea and air on or over all continents and both poles. 

[Web pages:  http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEsearch/SEsearchmap.php?Ecl=20170821

http://www.greatamericaneclipse.com/eclipse-2017/

http://www.oregonlive.com/travel/index.ssf/2016/08/7_things_you_need_to_know_abou.html

 

I’LL LISTEN, BUT I’M NOT HAVING A DISCUSSION ABOUT RACE ON FACEBOOK

August 24, 2016

A recent Pew survey concluded that whites were much less likely to post and see comments about race on Facebook than blacks.  The implication was that I, white, am doing something wrong and am likely racist, no matter what I think.  There was a reference to an article about 5 take-aways on race; whites and blacks have differences in percentages, my responses agreed with the majority of blacks, going strongly against my skin color when it the question had to do with fairness in the workplace and skin color.  But I’m retired and not in the workplace much these days.

I’m one of those elderly white men that gets ads on FB for Republican candidates, because I’m white, male, well-off and old.  I’m supposed to vote Republican and support Trump. Well, I am far to the left of Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton.  They aren’t even close to being liberal.  You want a liberal’s viewpoint, talk to me.  I am liberal even in Eugene, which is quite a statement.  I blasted the ad I got for the Republican candidate for Congress here, telling FB I never wanted to see that again. I didn’t.

But no, I am not going to have a conversation on race.  Not at all, and not only because such a concept bombed at Starbucks a while back.

I am not on FB to discuss race, and most of the time I don’t discuss politics, either. I sometimes lose my cool when one who believes manmade climate change does not exist starts posting, but I have four rules I follow before getting involved: no personal attacks, statistics with a confidence interval, p-value, and margin of error, verifiable local, national and global predictions (I won’t see a cooler than normal year for the rest of my life.  That’s verifiable), and consequences should one be wrong.  I have never had anybody get past the first, so I don’t argue. I’ve don’t discuss overpopulation. Nothing has changed.  Instead, I post pictures of places I’ve been, because I can control what and where I go, and I’ve been fortunate enough to have seen many beautiful places.

Specifically, I’d rather discuss things with people whom I can see and hear, because tone of voice and body language are important cues, and they usually aren’t present on social media.  I don’t like having someone a third my age using my first name without my permission.  First name basis has the sense of equality, and I am not equal to them in age, experience or education.  I don’t care if the young are on a first name basis with everybody.  I’m not. I wouldn’t have dreamed of calling the elders in my world by their first names. Age doesn’t per force make me wiser, but I have used my years to learn a great deal about the world.  I’ve published in 9 different fields, I have traveled all over the world, and I have a doctorate in medicine and a Master’s in statistics.

No, I don’t know what it is like being black, pregnant, a woman, have cancer or be a refugee. I do know what it is like to be seriously injured and to have lone atrial fibrillation, which is a stroke time bomb.  I respect the views of those who have experienced things I have not.  But I become annoyed when people who haven’t lived my life act as if they know how I should feel.  I’ve been around the Sun nearly 70 times; I don’t want a twenty something trying to tell me what I should think.  Hint: use “might,” not “should.”  It’s softer.

I don’t know the amount of emotion that written words contain, but if the grammar and spelling are bad, it not only bothers me; it colors my opinion of the point the individual is trying to make.  If one can’t be bothered with where to put an apostrophe, if one makes spelling errors, including my first name, it tells me there is a certain sloppiness in communicating that may spill over into their arguments.  People judge me by how I look. I do the same, and I judge people’s arguments by their language, spelling, and grammar.

Still, I am far more likely than most to change my mind in the face of compelling evidence.  I listen, I learn, and I change.  I will not, however, have a conversation with one who isn’t likely to listen, learn or change, no matter what I say.

Over time, I have argued less on social media.  I try to think very carefully before writing inflammatory statements, often deleting them. I’m not likely to change someone’s thoughts with my words.  I was a firebrand a decade ago; I am almost apolitical this election cycle.  I’m sure not about to get involved in race.  Heck, I have enough trouble meeting and talking to white people.

I try not to take the wrong turn at Jerk Junction. I try to do unto others.  I try to seek first to understand, but then I want to be understood, not blown off.  In short, I’m not the enemy.  Really.  But I don’t wish to have a discussion about race and how I don’t get it in social media.  I’ll read what I think I should, I’ll process it slowly, as I always do, and I will hopefully change what I think I should.  I may comment, but there’s a good chance I’ll delete it.

That’s good advice, really.  Get it off your chest, but then delete it and move on away from Jerk Junction to Suck it Up Road.  That’s my advice for people of all colors.

GO FUND AMERICA

August 10, 2016

On a long drive back from Nevada, I listened to the radio and heard about a function being given in a small town to support a young man who had been severely injured.  The money was going to pay for his medical expenses.  Two nights later, I saw on the news another function to raise money for an injured man who was in a wheelchair, who looked to me, a former neurologist, quadriplegic.

I’ve seen thousands of jars of coins in my lifetime to support children with leukemia, young boys vegetative after football injuries, or a young girl in a hospital after a retaining wall fell on her at a national park.  Quads?  Yes, them, too.  Awful.  Terrible. Unfair.  Devastating.

These functions, these jars, these attempts are futile.  Yes, futile. The amount of money they collect is minuscule compared to even one day in a hospital, let alone the fees charged by a surgeon, anesthesiologist, and the consultants that are part of everyday medical care. Go Fund Me will, for a 5% fee, allow crowd sourcing to help families of victims get money.  Even right wing sheriffs in Arizona used it, despite their past opposition to the Affordable Care Act, about as ironic as it comes.  We don’t have Go Fund Me pages for the millions of people who need medical care and can’t get it.  They can’t get it because we don’t have a national system of medical care that covers catastrophic as well as basic care.  We’re better than we used to be, despite 60-odd attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act, but we have a long way to go.

Go Fund Me works for those who have connections with others who have money.  For those with identical medical issues without such connections, and that would be far more people, there is no recourse.  That is why we need a system that covers catastrophic and basic care, so everybody has a fair chance to get necessary treatment.  Ideal and equal?  Nope.  But it would be more fair and help many more people.

Another irony is that small town America votes Republican.  The Congressman representing this town voted against taxes, he voted against the Affordable Care Act, the passage of which may have given him his seat.  Despite the fact that the ACA has insured millions of Americans and has been a success, both in decreasing bankruptcies and improving the percentage of people who consider themselves healthy, that insurance isn’t enough.  And while the ACA is starting to cost more money, that is not bad, because it means people are finally getting care for things they once let slide, like diabetes, hypertension, Pap smears, skin checks, colonoscopies.

A national health plan covering catastrophic and basic medical care would raise taxes, but it would end the practice of saddling ordinary people with hundreds of thousands of dollars of debt they can’t possibly repay.  It would help hospitals and doctors, too, both groups delivering free care.  I did as a practitioner, and the hospital for which I was medical director did, too.  The problem with Go Fund Me is that some get help and some don’t, the help not proportionate to the medical need.  Pass out leaflets instead of jars, leaflets supporting the Democratic candidate who will work to bring health care reform to the entire nation, and we would see an end of the bankruptcies occurring because of catastrophic medical expenses. Medicare’s overhead is less than Go Fund Me.  While taxes would rise, medical costs paid out in personal budgets would fall.  I can’t put a price tag on the lack of worry whether a medical condition would have to be lived with, because the cost to get care was prohibitive.

Yes, it is you in rural America who ought to start supporting Democrats who vote for things you need.  The Democrats are not coming to take your guns, your liberty, and your land.  The first two have never happened, and as for “your land,” we the American people own it, you and us, and that includes a guy like me. who enters it, doesn’t trash it, shoot up road signs, foul the water, run an ATV across fragile parts, cut down trees, and despoil what should not be despoiled.  The American people own the Owyhee, we all own the Grand Canyon, the national forests, the parks and lands held in trust for us which we must hold in trust for those whose lives are yet to begin.

We cannot realistically help everybody deal with medical bills by crowd source fund raising.  You want to help?  Then vote in legislators who will give us national health insurance so that basic and needed care will be paid for by the people of this land, because each of us is one bacterium, one virus, one plugged vessel, one leaking vessel, one drunk driver away from medical bills that may lead to bankruptcy.  I am frankly less at risk than most, because I have Medicare and can afford my supplementals.  I have social security, which I don’t need and I am near the end of my life, older than 90% of the rest of you.

I am willing to vote and have voted against my economic self-interest to pay for what is needed nationally.  What I don’t understand is why so many in rural America support those who have more than 60 times voted to repeal the ACA, and if given a chance will take away Medicare and other safety nets.

Everybody deserves a chance to have freedom from fear–fear of choosing between medical care and food, fear of bankruptcy, fear of wondering what delaying care for oneself or one’s child might mean. There are many things to be afraid of in this world, but this fear we can and should address.

We’ll be a better nation and people for doing so.