Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

I’D BET MONEY ON IT

December 20, 2015

In the summer of 2014, an Oregon snowmobile club got the go ahead to do trail maintenance in the National Forest.  Unfortunately, the leader of the club didn’t read the whole permit.

That was his first mistake.

The club rented equipment, paid for in part by monies from the gas tax snowmobilers and the rest of us, people like me, pay, and went to work, without direct Forest Service oversight.  That was the second mistake.  The result was an environmental mess over 31 miles of trails.  Trees were knocked over with roots pulled up, culverts destroyed, dirt, brush, rocks and trees shoveled on to roads, damage estimated at well over $250,000.  The Club is getting off scot-free, because it was unintended damage.  Bull.  They never told the Forest Service what they had done. I’d bet money that they intended to do exactly what they did.  They knocked over culverts.  That is not trail maintenance.  They piled refuse in a road.  That is not trail maintenance. The Oregon State Snowmobiling Association (OSSA) states that their volunteer program is a national “model.”  Some model.  Two years earlier, the same club pushed over trees at a Sno-Tel park. This is a trend. I blame the Forest Service for lack of oversight, but bad apples reflect on snowmobilers.  OSSA should be appalled.  The club ought to be disbanded.

If OSSA wants a national model for volunteer work, they should talk to my friends Erv and Sandra who work all over the West every year as volunteers.  They are a model.

The land scars were first felt to be due to rogue logging, until “trail maintenance” was remembered.  OSSA says land in Oregon is being “locked up as wilderness,” when there are 6000 miles of snowmobile trails in the state and Oregon ranks ninth among eleven western states in acreage devoted to wilderness. We have less wilderness as a percentage than Idaho.  Do we have to have loud and polluting machines everywhere?  I don’t care that noise abatement has improved, the machines are loud, and some of us go into the woods to get away from all manmade noise. I don’t care that pollution has improved, it is still pollution, and the fact air quality has never been affected by snowmobiles is due to a different definition of air quality that is not relevant to the woods.  People have a right to snowmobile—responsibly.  I have a right to untrammeled wilderness, and my right is not less than theirs.

For the record, I am an average volunteer who occasionally does trail maintenance in Eugene, where it is very clear what we can and cannot do.  We work closely with the Parks and Outdoor Spaces to plant trees, channel water, clean off bridges, and whatever they ask us to do.  We save them money by our presence.  They do not give us motorized vehicles to use.  They do give us detailed instructions, which our leader reads.   Every word.

The central Oregon group did not. They took a lot of money to damage an area that can never be fully restored.  Congressman Greg Walden said that we didn’t have resources at a national level to do all the trail maintenance that needed to be done.

Greg, you are dead wrong.  We have plenty of resources, but your party stands in the way of anything that smacks of stewardship for the land.  I’d bet money on it.  The Forest Service in 2012 had a backlog of $314 million plus $200 million for annual upkeep.  Don’t give me the “we don’t have the money” bit.  We have the money to throw at contractors in war zones, we just don’t think those who are stewards of our land are worth much. By the way, if we spent money hiring enough people with good equipment, we could have a Forest Service that really “cares for the land and serves people.”  It would create JOBS, Greg, although not paying what you make.  I’ve volunteered with the Forest Service.  Perhaps you should, too, Greg.  Legislate mandatory national service that includes trail maintenance, fund the Forest Service adequately to supervise these people, and we’d have better trails and less unemployment.  Your job is only 116 days a year.  Work a bit more, will you?  Do something for the country, for once. Stop getting in the way, stop voting in a bloc, and heed the late Paul Wellstone’s words:  “Politics isn’t about big money or power games; it’s about the improvement of people’s lives.”  Grow a spine.

No, I don’t think the snowmobile club members should go to jail, despite their destroying a lot of MY land by renting 15 ton equipment and having a good time knocking down trees and widening trails.  Do I know they were having a good time?  No, I don’t.  But I would bet money they were partying out there, drinking, making snide comments about environmentalists and the Forest Service, while they were destroying part of the United States.  Yes, I would bet money on it.

I’d demand that they pay for the damage.  Sell their snowmobiles, their trucks and their trailers, if they have to.   As it stands now, the Forest Service has asked the clubs involved to pay $35,000.  Asked.  I’d bet money that’s pocket change.  If they didn’t pony up, I’d saddle OSSA for the whole damn thing.  They have the money.  After all, they brag on their Web page how snowmobiling requires more outlay for equipment rather than $100-$200 for other uses—you know, like cross country skiing or snowshoeing, where people have to actually expend some effort.  I’ve taken people on Cascade hikes and waived the $5 fee for a non-member, along with the gas charge for our carpooling.  Their toys pollute air with noise and fumes, their users violate private property and scare animals, and yes, I hold them responsible for the actions of a few.  That’s the way of my world.  Clean up voluntarily or through regulation.  Take your pick.

I’ve seen good trail maintenance by the Disciples of Dirt mountain bikers on the Larison Rock trail.  They cut erosion and made the trail suitable for both mountain bikes and hikers.  I’ve seen what the High Cascade Forest Volunteers can do clearing downed trees on Maxwell Butte in early season.

Snowmobilers have a right to use the woods. I wonder if they feel I have a right to go into quiet wilderness, where there are no machines and a person has to do all the work.

They didn’t have the right to destroy the forest.  If a liberal environmentalist did one-thousandth the damage the snowmobile club did (that would be trashing 160 feet of trail), it would be on national news, Rush Limbaugh would have apoplexy, and the Republicans would vote to ban the Sierra Club.

I’d bet money on it.

REAPING THE WHIRLWIND

December 14, 2015

Whoever sows injustice reaps calamity, and the rod they wield in fury will be broken.

Proverbs 22:8

Many Republicans are in a tizzy these days, because Donald Trump won’t go away, each week saying something more and more outlandish.  I’m reading conservative columnists, because they are attacking Trump and not the Democrats.  How refreshing.

What strikes me most about Trump, however, is he never apologizes. He’s never wrong.  On the other hand, he is a candidate of a party that is never wrong on any issue, be it the climate, ISIS, the economy, immigration, or education. The Republicans sowed the seeds of never being wrong, never compromising, and never apologizing, and now they are reaping the whirlwind of a campaign that they can’t control.

We should all be worried about Trump, because the guy is electable.  Hillary Clinton has proven herself to be a poor campaigner and has more baggage than the Texan who shared a French train with us, who had to stand between two cars for four hours, because his wife’s huge pink suitcases wouldn’t fit in the overhead.

Many of the young will be upset that Bernie Sanders didn’t win, and they may stay home.  I had hoped we had learned a big lesson from Nader.  A lot of those who ought to vote Democratic for the next five generations—beneficiaries of the Affordable Care Act, Social Security, Medicare, Gay Rights—may stay home. There are those who bag it because it is becoming more difficult to vote rather than less.  There are others who now have to bring photo IDs, which cost money, on the basis on non-existent voter fraud, and now the Republicans are floating the idea of having Congress represent the voters rather than the people, which will give rural America, red as a beet, disproportionate influence.  We should have a national holiday weekend just to give people time to vote, and yet hours are being cut.

The Republicans sought the Evangelical vote, because the Democrats were in favor of abortion, civil rights, gay rights, and other social causes that the Evangelicals wouldn’t support.  The megachurches supported the Far Right, were able to do so without tax consequences, their leaders invited to prayer breakfasts, and the Republicans were able to capture the “family values” group, despite a high number of divorces and scandals in high placed Republicans.

When the Tea Party came into existence, the Republicans sought their support too, for here was a group that had rabid members and hated the President.  The Tea Party was well organized, and after the fiery debates over the Affordable Care Act, were able to take over Congress, winning 63 new seats.  They may have changed Congress for a generation, much as Civil Rights lost the South probably permanently, except for a few retiree states.

The Tea Party was a game changer, and contrary to what I read now, they are still a powerful force in the country today.  They are a bunch of boors.  One yelled “Liar” in the middle of a State of the Union speech. One simply does not do that.  Congress had always worked by compromise and politeness until these people appeared.They have proven to be like Trump, non-apologetic, against everything Obama has tried to do, unwilling to compromise on anything—much like the Dr. No I had to deal with in my medical director days—and have single-handedly shut down the government.  Only forty or so are in the House now, but their power is essentially that of 220.

When Boehner was Speaker, he used the “Hastert Rule,” named after a prior speaker, which means that no bill gets introduced unless the majority of the majority party agrees.  This renders Democrats ineffective.  The minority has no say.  No bill they write has a chance.  It is ironic that this year Mr. Hastert pled guilty to a hush money scheme that is still not clear what for, although I am betting on pedophilia.  We are therefore governing the House based on what one speaker—now felon—thought best years ago, which has limited severely the number of bills that we can pass.

The Tea Party convinced Boehner to shut down the government, costing several billion dollars and accomplishing nothing. We almost defaulted on our debts, and indeed our bond rating fell a notch, for the first time ever.  The Tea Party eventually caused Boehner to resign, and the first and second choices to succeed him appeared to have baggage of their own, forcing Paul Ryan to make a decision to take over, rather than to spend time with his family.

One would think with 246 representatives, somebody could have come forward to serve who might have been a great speaker.  But not if the Tea Party can stop anything they want.

Ryan is himself dangerous.  He doesn’t want to give “one red cent” to Planned Parenthood.  Being a good Catholic, I suspect his religious beliefs are getting in the way of the idea that having fewer children and planning when to have them would go a long ways to alleviating poverty within two  generations.  Fewer children would also decrease the number of abortions, but when one believes that anything greater than zero is wrong and should not be allowed to happen, options are limited.  Ryan wants to make Medicare a system of vouchers.  I can’t imagine the huge number of people on Medicare trying to make sense of vouchers and shop for the best coverage.  I’m 67 and a retired physician.  I have difficulty understanding the system.  What about an 85 year-old widow who isn’t thinking too clearly and doesn’t have a lot of money?  Does one really think this is what market choices is all about?

Lindsay Graham is the only contender in the Republican Party who has said that he will refuse to vote for Trump, should the latter become the nominee.  Not even Paul Ryan said that.  That speaks volumes about the Party.

The Republicans wooed the Evangelicals and then the Tea Party.  They did nothing for the Evangelicals and figured the Tea Party would do their bidding.  Instead, the Republican Party is being whipped around by the tail of the tiger they grabbed.  Trump is the leading contender, and he is threatening a third party run, currently supported by 68% of his supporters, very few of whom would likely vote Democratic.  The Republicans have sown hatred, bigotry, lack of compassion, lack of collegiality, and boorishness, and they are now reaping the whirlwind.

What the country will reap remains to be seen.  I am not optimistic.

BOORISH 4.0

December 9, 2015

I had just figured out, using calculus, the rate in radians per second necessary for a camera to follow an ascending rocket.  The student was thrilled, and I was frankly amazed.  I hadn’t done a problem like that in 50 years, and I walked out of the community college math lab that afternoon satisfied after 5 hours of helping several dozen students.

The day soon worsened.

The first was a post on Facebook that my brother sent me.  It was a Christmas card from a Nevada Assemblywoman with her family: babies, kids, other adults, all dressed with red shirts, and all packing.  The weapons I think were listed in the card, but the print was small and my eyes aren’t very good.  A young boy was holding a semi-automatic.  All the others showed their weapons.

This is scary and incredibly tasteless, boorish, and during a holiday season, completely contrary to the teachings of Jesus, in whom I am sure these people believe.  It is child endangerment, for guns in the hands of children or near children are dangerous, and data support that.  I wrote my brother:  “Too many guns, too many kids, and too much red.”   It was appalling.

Then the evening news nailed me.  Mr. Trump was promoting a ban on all Muslims coming to the country; Mr. Cruz was saying the he would carpet bomb ISIS were he elected, wondering what color the sand would look like.  Red, Ted. From the blood of babies and women, too.

Fear sells.  And Americans have become a bunch of ‘fraidy cats.  Yep.  Land of the free, home of the ‘fraidy cat.  Did I mention the Assemblywoman was a good friend of Cliven Bundy, who bilked the federal government out of a few million in grazing fees and got away with it?  That’s my land, too, as much as it is his.  The feds caved, because it would have been a bad scene with many on both sides dead, the rebels martyrs.

Fear wins elections.

That is why Bush gained seats in Congress in 2002, re-elected in 2004.  Fear sells. Gun sales are high, and one of the most common ones bought now is an assault weapon.  There were 185,000 background checks on Black Friday, a record, to go along with 100 million mandated by the Brady Handgun Violence Bill of 1993, which began checks in 1998.  Americans are afraid of everything.  Shows like “24” played to this, The Weather Channel’s “It could happen tomorrow” also did, and there is a pervasive notion that seconds, literally seconds count for life and death.  All of us are a heartbeat away from disaster were it not for the “heroes” who surround us and will save us.  It isn’t true, and as a neurologist, I saw plenty of emergencies.

Sure, I’m afraid there will be a campus shooter, but I still volunteer, 70 miles from Umpqua.  I think it is more likely a car driven by a drunk driver will cross the center line and kill me.  One cut a car in half on Highway 34 a few days ago and killed a young woman.  That’s scary, but it doesn’t make the evening news.  Three young men died when their truck went off a Forest Service Road earlier this year.  I thought about them when I drove back from the Coast, near that road.  They were dead, I was alive.  I wondered how their family felt, first Christmas without them.  Wonder how the family feels of the two men killed, 4 miles apart, by a wacko kid who killed his parents, set the house ablaze, and drove wildly through Springfield and Eugene  One had just retired; the other was Christmas shopping.  No reason.  Dead.

I’m afraid of mountain lions when I hike solo in the woods.  But I am more afraid I will stumble upon a survivalist, a marijuana grower, or just a bunch of rednecks with some guns and an attitude.  That scares me, and it has nothing to do with ISIS.  Whatever else, the jihadists don’t know wilderness.  The rednecks do, although I could do without many trashing it everywhere they go.  I keep my eyes and ears open when I’m in the woods.  A friend told me how he was followed very, very closely by one of them in NorCal, causing him to turn around and quickly leave.  I would have, too.  One hiker down there, my age, was killed, his companion left for dead in the same place.  Guy in his cabin killed by a robber on the lam. Wrong place, wrong time.  Nothing to do with ISIS or Muslims.

Trump is playing the fear card, and Cruz will gain traction by his carpet bombing statement.  He didn’t say who was going to pay for this, because wars cost money.  The last one was promised to be $1.7 billion, but it turned out to be that every week for several years.  Maybe Mr. Cruz has that kind of money, but I don’t.  And unless somebody asks him, Mr. Cruz isn’t likely to say where is he is going to find the money. So I will ask:

Mr. Cruz, where are you going to get the money to carpet bomb ISIS?

The last war set the stage for ISIS, but our radicals don’t ever discuss  who invaded Iraq.  Bombing means planes get shot down, pilots captured or killed, their pictures filling the news media, everybody’s posting the picture of one of “our boys” and an outpouring of national ribbons and demands for prisoner release.  Next question:

Mr. Cruz, how many of our own men and women are you willing to sacrifice in order to do this?

Remember that not only do our troops die, but they get wounded, receive sub-optimal care in many instances, and are mustered out of the service, often becoming homeless.  Heroes fade fast.

And next:

Mr. Cruz, when you are president, will you allow the news media to cover the returning of our slain troops to Dover, unlike Mr. Bush?  By the way, do you know what state Dover is in?  That’s for the reader, too.  If you don’t, and you are American, look it up and do me a favor—be a little embarrassed if you didn’t know which state.  I grew up near there. Americans should know their country.

Since lack of an end strategy has hurt this country in both Vietnam and Iraq, I will ask another:

Mr. Cruz, how are we going to decide when to leave?

Because most people don’t like those who bomb them, I think the following needs also to be asked:

Mr. Cruz, do you think radicalization of young men and women might have something to do with the way we have conducted the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and other places in the Middle East?  Put another way, Senator, do you think we might cause the radicalization we want to destroy?

It had been a long day in the math lab, and I had answered a lot of questions politely and accurately.  I think it is now time for me to ask a few and to ask for the same treatment, because I doubt the press will.

They won’t even focus on the fact that Ted Cruz is not a natural born citizen as I happen to define the term.

CHRISTIE’S “FEELINGS”

December 8, 2015

Chris Christie was in the news again, stating that the climate has always changed, and he saw no crisis.  He wasn’t quoting any scientists about this, but he had a “feeling” that it wasn’t.  ISIS, on the other hand is a crisis.

What is ironic is that the existence of ISIS has a lot to do with climate change.  Syria is a dry country; from 1900 to 2005, six droughts occurred, and all lasted one season, with about a third of the normal rainfall.  From 2006-2010, four seasons of extensive drought occurred, which was unprecedented, leading to the displacement of 1.5 million people.  If I heard that, I must have forgotten it, but Syria was in the midst of a major upheaval in its economy before the recession which then led to the current situation.  Irrigation had not been completed, and addressing water shortages was poorly done.

The long range water outlook is not good for either Syria or the Middle East.  Had it not been for a change in the climate, that Governor Christie says is “the climate is always changing,” we might not have ISIS to deal with at all. Trust me, the US Defense Department believes in climate change and is actively trying to deal with a new reality when the Arctic is ice-free, and there are wars fought over fresh water.

Mind you, addressing climate change adequately is not going to happen.  That’s clear.  We have many vocal deniers, and I do fault the Associated Press for saying the proper term is “skeptics.”  No, a true skeptic will demand evidence and change his or her mind in the face of convincing evidence.  I will and have changed my mind in the face of convincing evidence.  The climate deniers I have known will not.  Ask for a margin of error or confidence, they will give either no answer or “100% confident,” which is impossible given the complexity of the atmosphere and one’s ability to understand all the factors.  What has been particularly pernicious has been the sowing of enough uncertainty that the average busy American thinks that the issue really isn’t settled and we shouldn’t change our lifestyles at all.  Gas mileage for cars should now average 60 mph, which I get on a 2003 Civic; instead, fuel economy languishes a bit over a third of that.

My computers have run 55.73 quadrillion points (that is 5, with 16 zeros after it) of climate models, as part of climatenetwork.net.  I am running Australia-New Zealand models that showed the Earth every 5 or 15 minutes for a few year period of interest. It’s something I can do right now to help the situation.  From these models, we know that the record October temperatures in Australia were 6 times as likely to have occurred because of global warming.  I know how complex these models are, which require up to 390 hours of computational time for each change a researcher does.  There are hundreds of these, changing variables of interest, in case emissions of CO2 decrease or methane increase, for example.  By doing this, we can make probabilistic statements about climate change vs. natural variability.  We know that up to a quarter of the severity of California’s drought is from climate change, and the least is still about 7%.  Notice the range of estimates, for uncertainty quantification is a big part of science.  Syria’s drought is less uncertain and almost clearly a result from climate change.  One drought on average every 17 years and then four straight years of drought is highly significant, meaning it is not a chance occurrence.  Something caused it with high probability, and we can quantitate that probability.

It is ironic that Hurricane Sandy, which devastated New Jersey, Christie’s home state, is part of  the new normal—storms that look the same as always but are not the same.   One of the things we have learned about global warming is that the ocean’s temperature has increased well below the surface, far further below than we thought.  That limits the atmospheric warming increase, but we have no idea what a deep warming of the ocean portends.  It may have been the reason Hurricane Patricia was so strong, because hurricanes require warm water, and the deeper the warm water goes in the ocean, the more the fuel for the hurricane.  We also don’t know what warmer oceans will do to the atmosphere over them.  The climate deniers don’t think there is a problem.  I think there is a problem; I just don’t know how it will manifest itself.  If I had a child or a grandchild, I would be very worried about their lives in a world whose climate is going to take a direction we have never seen as a species.  Put another way, if one has children and denies what is extremely likely, one is being unfair at best and cruel at worst to their progeny.

What good are models?  Indeed, I had one individual tell me to argue my case without using climate models.  What should I use?  Mr. Christie’s “feelings” that he knows he’s right?  Let’s look at feelings a little more.  Nate Silver runs fivethirtyeight.com, which predicts many events, including the elections.  In 2012, there were people who “had a feeling” how certain states would vote,  whereas Mr. Silver used weighting of polls based on past performance to make probabilistic determinations of how states would vote.  He wouldn’t say that North Carolina would be won by Romney; he said there was an 85% probability that it would be.  It was.  Silver got all the major contested states right; he got all the states right.  It wasn’t a feeling, it was statistics.  The others were dead wrong.  The “political sense” that Pennsylvania would go to Romney was completely erroneous.  Silver not only predicted it, his prediction of the popular vote percentage was almost completely accurate.

With weather models, we have extraordinarily high probabilities of knowing what is going to happen in the next 48-72 hours.  I don’t think we should be timing rainfall’s starting to the nearest minute or should give the probability of rain to the nearest per cent, but the idea of a major storm or heat wave can be seen by looking at the models.  Climate models aren’t perfect, but they are the best knowledge we have, and over decades, they are far more predictive than the weather forecasts.  All of the models are pointing towards a warmer Earth with consequences that are known and others that are not known.

I don’t know what is scarier to me, what will happen to the climate or the fact that the three major branches of government of the most powerful country on Earth will likely be controlled by those who believe that there is no problem at all.  They are wrong, they are foolish, they are arrogant, and they will be the cause of first the downfall of the country and then the species.

I’m sure I’ll be blamed, but I won’t be around to hear it.  The first steps of that have already occurred.

ONLINE, ON COURSE

November 29, 2015

I received the following letters the past few weeks.  They made my day.

Thank you so much, I was struggling and your answer made it simple and understandable. UR GR8.

You are Amazing!

You have helped me in the past and always have accurate answers, I am so grateful you took your time out to help me today, thank you, I appreciate it so much!

Thank you, from the bottom of my heart, you have written this in a way that I totally understand. I will differently (sic) praise you to all my friends and family. God Bless you,

What did I do to deserve these?

Reason for the first:

The area of a triangle is 30 sq in. The base of the triangle measures 2 in more than twice the height of the triangle. Find the measures of the base and height. 

The area of a triangle is (1/2)*base*height.  Remember that?  Therefore, the base*height must equal 60 for the area to be 30.  Let the height= x inches, then the base is 2x+2, two more than twice the height.  Then, 

x*(2x+2)=60, 2x^2+2x=60, and dividing by 2, x^2+x=30.  We can write that as x^2+x-30=0 and factor it as (x+6)(x-5)=0.  That is 0 if x=-6 (not possible for a length) or if x=5.  So, the base is 5 inches and the height is 2(5)+2, or 12 inches.

For the last comment,  I answered the following, taking about a minute in my head, writing it down as I thought.

Write the slope-intercept equation for the line that passes through (-12, 10) and is perpendicular to 4x + 6y = 3. 

One gets the slope first by rewriting the equation as 6y=-4x+3 and dividing by 6 to get y=-(2/3)x+1/2.  The slope is -2/3. The perpendicular line has a negative reciprocal slope.  Turn the fraction over (-3/2) and change the sign (3/2).  That is the slope of the perpendicular line.   Using the point slope formula where we know the slope and a point, x=-12, y=10, y-y1= (3/2) (x-x1).  That is y-10=(3/2)(x+12).  This becomes y-10=(3/2)x+18, and finally y=(3/2)x+28.  Also, y=mx+b, so 10=(3/2)((-12)+b.  That is 10=-18+b, so b=28.  Both methods work; the more ways one knows, the more ways to explain it to students.  One of the ways is likely to stick.

For the one who called me amazing?

Find the accumulated value on an investment of $15,000.00 for 9 years at an interest rate of 11% if the money is compounded 

a) Semi- annually b) Quarterly c) Monthly d) Continuously 

 Here, one uses the formula 

Principal=Starting Principal{1+ rate/compounding per year} raised to (the number of years*compounding per year). P=Po{1+r/t}^nt.  Semi-annual is P=Po{1+(0.11/2)}^18, because it compounds twice a year and there are nine years.  This is $39,322.  For continuously compounding, it is easier, P=Po*e^rt.  e^rt= e^(0.99), because 9*11%=0.99.  Po*e^0.99=$40,368.52.  Continuously compounding gives you more money, although the difference between it and monthly is only $200 less than continuously.  The last formula allows one to prove that the doubling time of money in years is 70 (or 72, which is easier to work with) divided by the interest rate in per cent.  I grew up in the age before calculators, and we had to do this by logs.  On a calculator, it takes about 15 seconds. Dividing 72 by 11 gives a doubling time of about 6 1/2 years, so $15,000 should double once and be well on its way to doing it again.  The answer makes sense.

This is an online math help site.  More than 2000 tutors take part, some of whom have solved one problem, one nearly 70,000.  I’ve solved 2000.  About one in four thanks me.  That’s nice.

Several tutors offer their services for pay, $1 per answer, $2-$5 to show the work.  I do it to relax.  Yes, relax.  This stuff is fun for me, and I have learned the easier the problem for me, the more grateful people tend to be.  I don’t need to hear anything, unless my answer is wrong or not understandable.  I’m there to help.  I don’t know names; I do know I have helped parents help their children.

I’ve learned much.  It has been a great review of my statistics, I now deal with ellipses better, and I understand geometric series better than I ever have before.

I usually want a challenge, so I choose what I want to solve.  I have a big advantage:  I grew up in the era of no Internet, Chemical Rubber Company tables of integrals, no calculators, only log tables to do complex calculations.  In other words, I learned math from first principles, from the ground up.  Yes, it helps to have a genetic ability to do this stuff.  I can’t play the violin, but I can find the vertex of a parabola mentally and write it in three different forms.  Kids need someone to help them understand how to do it, not in their head, but to allow them to understand these and similar problems.

The current list has perhaps 50 problems, and I often work down it until I find a problem I feel like doing.  If interested, I go to the list of unsolved problems.  Last I checked, statistics had about 40,000.  A lot of those are tough, and if I don’t have pen or paper around, I don’t do them.

When I tutor at the community college, I answer algebra questions online while waiting for non-virtual students to ask for help.  I guess I am volunteering, but I am having a lot of fun.  It’s nice to lay out quickly an answer in simple form for a person who is struggling.

The other day at the CC, I was asked to go into the higher level math room to help out.  That was a compliment, because I was felt to be good enough to help out there. I’m the go-to guy for statistics.  The other tutors are really smart, yet all of us at one time or another have trouble with something.  I may struggle at the high levels, but I often find myself pulling stuff out of the air from the past and making sense out of it.  Or better yet, I ask a student where he got a specific term in an equation.  The student looks puzzled then suddenly says, “Oh, wow, I didn’t see that before.  OK, I understand.  Thanks a lot.”  And he leaves.

I hadn’t a clue how to solve the problem, but I think I helped him.

Math is mentally taxing.  After doing about a dozen problems, I take a break.  It helps me later solve troublesome problems.  In the math lab, I have concentrated so deeply that one day when I walked out of the room, I forgot whether it was Tuesday or Friday.

I think the absent-minded professor was probably working overtime on a difficult problem.

WE THE GOVERNMENT

November 15, 2015

There is a mouse problem at the barn where my wife spends a week or two every month with her horses.  Much as she loves animals, she does not want mice eating the feed, and there are too few cats there for too many mice.

When she went to the local feed store, looking for a certain poison, the clerk told her it was no longer present.  “The government won’t let you have it any more,” the man said,

“We are the government,” my wife replied.

The reason for not selling the poison is that we discovered that mice killed by it became food for raptors, which died after eating the carrion.  We banned DDT in 1972, because it concentrated in the fat of eagles, made their eggshells thinner, breaking before hatching.  After we stopped using DDT, the population recovered.  You didn’t think manufacturers of DDT were going to voluntarily stop selling it, did you?  That’s Ayn Rand’s world, not mine.  We took lead out of paint in 1978 because it is a neurotoxin, especially in children.  We used to have leaded gasoline.  Cars back then ran better with tetraethyl lead, but they run better now with unleaded gas.  California banned lead in gasoline in 1992, the rest of the country in 1996.  The percent of children with high lead levels has decreased from 7.6% to 0.5% since 1997.  That’s not due to the oil or auto industry demanding the removal of lead from gasoline. That is we the government, we the people, telling them to do so, improving public health.

Oh, Robert Kehoe, medical head of the Ethyl Corporation, helped keep lead in gasoline for 40 years.  In 1943, when research showed that children with elevated blood lead levels had behavioral disorders, the powerful corporation threatened to sue and the research stopped.  Kehoe argued lead occurs naturally, the body could deal with it, and thresholds for lead toxicity were far above what body levels were. That sounds a lot like arguments I hear against global warming.  In fact, Kehoe’s upper limits for lead toxicity were 80 micrograms/100ml, when current upper limits survived Reagan’s anti-regulation policy and are 10 micrograms/100ml.   We have smarter kids and maybe less crime, since there is a remarkable correlation between per cent with high lead levels and crime rates.

In 1937, S.E. Massengill Company marketed Elixir Sulfanilamide without alcohol.  Their chemist dissolved the product in diethylene glycol (DEG) (similar to antifreeze) and added raspberry flavoring.  DEG causes kidney failure, but in 1937, few, including the chemist, knew that. One hundred seven died, many of them children, and the outcry caused Congress to pass the Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act, which required companies to perform animal safety tests on proposed new drugs and submit the data to the FDA before being allowed to market the products.  Massengill said, “We have been supplying a legitimate professional demand and not once could have foreseen the unlooked-for results. I do not feel that there was any responsibility on our part.” The chemist felt differently.  He committed suicide before trial.

A young researcher, Frances Kelsey, was involved in the DEG studies.  Dr. Kelsey later stopped the use of thalidomide in the US, saving untold numbers of American children from being born with phocomelia, or no limbs.  Government meddling again. Just let the pharmaceutical company put whatever they want on the market.  People will make the right choice.  Right, Ayn?

What would happen, pray tell, if we trashed all the “onerous regulations” that we have in place, removing second hand smoke, stop marketing cigarettes to children, mandating child seats, seat belts and air bags, vaccinations, dangerous toys.   Do people really want to do away with government regulation?  Do we want people to die from something preventable?

In 1979, failure of companies to have an adequate amount of chloride in new soy-based infant formulae led to 130 infants developing chloride deficiency.  The new product was faulty, despite company claims. How many have to die, be made ill, miserable, hospitalized at great cost, before we get things right?

In 1989, the number of new foods introduced annually was so large that there was concern people had no way to decide the safety, cost, and nutritional value of what they bought.  One may say, “the market” will decide, but “the market” requires people to decide based upon facts, not ads, and honest numbers, rather than slick commercials.  The change did not come from “voluntary action,” for it never does.  In 1990, after the Nutritional Labeling and Education Act, we started seeing all those numbers on food we buy at the store, and now even at places like Starbucks, where the other day, I had a cup of coffee in one of those red “Satan sippers.”

I wanted something nice with my coffee, but everything that looked good under the glass had 300+ calories, and even if I jogged home, I might burn a third of that.  I ended up buying Vanilla Bean Scones, 300 calories for 3 of them, figuring 100 calories a day extra for 3 days I could handle.  Everything under the glass looked great, for 400-600 calories.

What else did the Nutritional Labeling Act do for me?  Ten years ago, when I suddenly found my profile not to my liking, I stopped peanut butter, which I love, and olive oil, diminishing my intake 600 calories a day.  I read the labels. The change was slow, but over six months, I lost nearly 4 kg or 9 pounds.  On a trip to Oregon, preparing for the move, I ate at a coffee shop every morning, enjoying a Marionberry muffin, which must have been 500 calories extra.  A little of this, a little of that, and the weight came back.

For the past year, nothing changed, despite a lot of hiking and running, remaining 5 pounds heavier than I wanted.  Obviously, I was eating as many calories as I was burning.  That’s thermodynamics.  I then took a hard look at my grocery shopping.  It turned out to be an easy look:  I found two items of note: yogurt I bought was 60 calories more than a comparable amount, which tasted the same.  That isn’t much, but the fancy vegetarian hot dogs I had two days a week were another story.

I was stunned.  Each was 280 calories a pop, 1120 total when I had them for dinner twice a week. By going back to the traditional type, I saved 720 calories alone every week.  Added to the yogurt I was eating, I could eat essentially the same for 1140 fewer calories a week.  Within six weeks, I had lost 1.5 kg, more than 3 pounds.  I couldn’t have done it without the Nutritional Labeling Act.

For every “onerous” regulation, there were a large group of people who once said, “somebody ought to pass a law”.  That’s what politics should be, doing good for people.  I’m not out to trash capitalism, but I’m damned if companies should get away with….murder.  Their fiduciary responsibility is to their stockholders.  We the government have a fiduciary responsibility to we the people, not we the stockholders.

A TENNER AND A RED CUP

November 10, 2015

After finishing graduate school, I returned home to become a medical statistician.  At 51, I knew people in the community, I was a statistician, I knew medicine, medical administration, was trained in quality improvement, and a decent writer.  I had it all.

Except for the course on marketing.  I bombed, completely failed, one of the biggest failures of my life. I was bitter for at least 5 years, maybe longer, until time and dealing with the deaths of my parents both shoved me into another direction.  I often blamed my failure on the fact that I had pissed off the medical community.  War on Mike, I could have called it, sort of like the War on Christmas.

Except for a few vocal detractors, perhaps four, the medical community could have cared less about me.  They were too busy getting on with the stresses of their own practices, families, and other matters, not trying to think how they could screw me over.

Sometimes, I wonder if I will ever become an adult.

After being executor of my father’s estate, I moved on. I’ve been fortunate.  Nah, I won’t be famous, but I am content in my own skin.  I have discovered that there are some good things about growing old and there are things that just plain suck.  In short, I am alive, and a lot better off than most.

That brings me to Starbucks, which has a plain red cup for Christmas, and now accused by many so-called Christians as “hating Jesus,” being anti-Christian, and has Donald Trump calling for a national boycott.  I think the country has more important matters to address then the color, which I like, on a Starbucks cup.  To those who now hate Starbucks, I say, “get a life.”  Re-read the second, third, and fourth paragraphs above, especially the fourth.

My solar eclipse video in 2010 got 1000 views, yet the Starbucks customer who said that the company hated Jesus has a video with over three million views.  Sort of says something about Americans.  You know what?  I’d rather be a quiet guy who taught people about solar eclipses, volunteered teaching math, taught English online to people in 90 countries, donated to animal welfare in two countries and four cities, and on my own dime led hikes in the Cascades than a guy who had three million people listen to his stupid rant.  For the record, I decided not to add to his count.  If he looks at my video, I’ll look at his.

The holidays are a time I now look forward to.  Formerly, when in practice, they were a time I dreaded:  most of my partners took time off, patients who went to the hospital usually had a horrible reason, services at the hospital were often slow, because people were “away for the holidays,” and I usually came down sick with something.  Additionally, I had to do Christmas shopping, because my late mother made a big deal about Christmas. Oh yes, night call was really depressing when somebody with a Grade V subarachnoid hemorrhage or irreversible anoxic encephalopathy had to have the plug pulled on Christmas Eve.  I disliked the season.

These days, my wife and I go to the mall on at least one December Monday (more if we can) and watch people in line with their pet animals wait to get a picture with Santa.  What a hoot.  A woman last year had a Siamese cat perched on her shoulder for at least 45 minutes while she stood in line.  She had another half hour to go.The best we could do with any of our cats is about 4.5 seconds with the silver one, and maybe 4.5 milliseconds with the semi-feral 5 year-old.  I’m not exaggerating.

Yes, that is a Siamese on her shoulder. Valley River Mall, 2014

Yes, that is a Siamese on her shoulder. Valley River Mall, 2014

Christmas Eve Day, we go shopping for things we want, have lunch somewhere, and return home early.  After dinner, we walk the neighborhood looking at lights, then turn on the 24 hours of “A Christmas Story,” which we love.  Hell, two of our cats are named Red Ryder and Black Bart.  We use quotations from that movie often:  “The line ends here.  It begins back there.”  “Soooooaaap poisoning.”  Christmas Day is vegetarian; we do just fine with fake turkey and all the trimmings.  I put on some Christmas music, pick up the tree that the cats have knocked over and enjoy the day.

Who is declaring war on Christmas?  Well, the nightly progress reports about how well merchants are doing this year compared to last is a little counter to the message Jesus preached, if I understand the Bible.  I don’t think Jesus would like our constant war since 2003 and our troops overseas since 1945.  I think Jesus might have preached something about gun violence, but I’m not religious, so I may be wrong.

It is a goddam red coffee cup for Chrissakes!  It’s not Satan jumping over the counter.  Get over it!  Bring in your own decorative cup or mug and save the planet.  Starbucks lost $3.2 million last April when their computers crashed, so they gave customers free coffee.  It was April, not December, but isn’t there something  about keeping Christmas in your heart the whole year?  Saturday,  Safeway had $1, $5, and $10 coupons to donate food to the needy. On impulse, I threw in a five spot.  My heavens, the clerk started ringing the bell as if I were a breast cancer survivor in October at Starbucks in the MSP airport.  Yes.  That Starbucks.  Where the manager comes out and hugs a survivor.  I don’t cry easily, but that sort of stuff brings tears to my eyes.  Yes, that Starbucks.  The one that wants to increase hiring of veterans to 10,000 and provide free tuition to get a bachelor’s degree at Arizona State University.  And a red coffee cup is all the talk is about, rather than helping veterans to attend college?  I’m a veteran, and helping vets trumps any complaint about coffee cups, which I happen to like.

Anyway, the cashier asked if I wanted my name on the coupon.  Embarrassed, I declined.  She thanked me three times.  It was just $5.  But no, that’s not the point.  I was making this cashier and some unknown recipient happy.  That’s what Christmas is about, not politicizing the event to make it sound like we are trying to defeat the 70% of Americans who call themselves Christians.  Can’t we just have Christmas, Chanukah, Kwanzaa, and any other holiday this melting pot of people celebrate, without claiming there is some sort of war?  Can’t we do good things for others? Are these people Dementors or Ebenezers?

The very next day, I went right into Starbucks that’s part of Target, although I personally prefer Dutch Brothers, and by God, I got me one o’them red cups for my decaf.  Yeah, I have to drink decaf. It’s better for my heart, especially when I am dealing with damned idiots who think we’re having a War on Christmas. It’s repetition, and repetition doesn’t make it right.  It’s wrong, and I am by nature argumentative against wrongs.

Take it from me, you poor Christians who feel persecuted.  I thought the medical community was persecuting me, and I just didn’t do a good job marketing myself.  It took me a while, but I got over it.  Start marketing yourself.  Begin with following Jesus’s teachings.  Ya know?  Love, caring for the poor, he who is without sin….

Be big boys and girls.  This War on Christmas is bogus.  Get over it, you hear?  Go to Safeway, stick a tenner coupon in with your groceries, which I will do the next time I’m in, and you will be doing the Lord’s work.   The next time I might even put five of them in.  It will make the clerk’s day.  Then, this non-believer, who likes pagan holidays like Christmas, will say to her:  “Merry Christmas.”

And walk out of the store with a big smile on his face.  Won that war.

DEAD END

November 8, 2015

When I moved to Oregon, I volunteered for organizations I didn’t even know existed, and I didn’t volunteer, but thought I would, for others. Such is life, and I predicted this experience before the move. When I learned there was a state-wide reporting system for medical errors, I wrote them, eventually being invited to their offices to meet with the staff. I was optimistic.

But not surprisingly, nothing came of it. I knew that when I walked out the door after that meeting. I read body language well. I saw the expression, “I’m really busy and need to get back to work rather than talk to this guy.” What I brought, they didn’t need, and that is OK, just unfortunate for me. I later wrote an opinion piece about the need for pharmacies in the state to do more analysis of the errors they made, so that we could improve state-wide systems. Seven hundred pharmacies in the state generated only 20 reports last year. That’s disappointing, but again not surprising, either. Nothing came of my article, but I didn’t expect anything. I’ve gone down a lot of dead-end roads. I turn around and try others. Occasionally, I find a path that leads to interesting places. I don’t find one often, but if I don’t try, I won’t find it at all.

After a few problems obtaining my medication, which I recently wrote about, I sent a letter about my experiences to the head of the Patient Safety Commission. I didn’t know what would happen, but again, if I didn’t write, nothing would happen. I received a reply, saying my letter was forwarded to the staff as a reason why the Commission exists. I found that Interesting. A few days later, a staff member wrote me saying she knew a man who taught pharmacy students, and he might be interested in talking to me. This road was going a little further than I thought. After exchanging a few emails, the pharmacist called me and we spoke about medical errors, pharmaceuticals, and other issues.

It wasn’t a fit, and before I heard the words, I knew this wasn’t going to work out. I can read body language over the phone well, too. He wanted somebody “downstream,” a patient who could come to his class and explain how a medication error affected them. That’s asking for a lot, and I think is unrealistic. I sure couldn’t provide it. I saw the Dead End sign, but we had an interesting talk. I think his class would benefit from one who had seen a lot of errors in other fields, studied them, and could advise his students about system design and learning from errors. Somebody like me.

For a couple of hours after the call, I had the usual down in the dumps feeling, which happens when I encounter a dead end sign. Maybe something will happen. He might talk to other people who are interested in what I have to say. But I strongly doubt it. It almost never happens. Networking to me has led only to my giving free advice, almost never receiving anything in return. Still, I keep trying, although I am running out of time.

I might have told the students about the error in a Bend hospital, where a lady after recent brain surgery came to the hospital and had fosphenytoin, an anti-convulsant, ordered. For some reason, she was given an IV bag containing rocuronium, a paralytic, but labelled as fosphenytoin. She might have survived had there not been a Code Red, for fire, and was left unattended for 20 minutes. She died a few days later from anoxic encephalopathy. It’s like a plane that has a landing gear problem that consumes the pilot’s attention so much that the plane runs out of fuel and crashes. That happened in Portland in 1978, killing 10. It spawned CRM, Crew Resource Management, which essentially considers everybody in the cockpit an equal resource in an emergency. The concept worked a decade later on a United jet and to perfection in 2010 when a Qantas A-380’s port engine exploded and the plane had to be nursed back to Singapore. The video is worth seeing, as an example of how teamwork in the cockpit saved the plane and all aboard. The investigation is worth reading, as well, as to how a seemingly minor quality assurance problem at Rolls-Royce had catastrophic results. Oh, it wasn’t a miracle that everybody survived. A miracle would be not to have had a problem ever occur with anything we make. Everybody survived because of redundancies built into the aircraft and skill of the crew. Medicine needs that kind of dedication to safety, where pharmacists are important resources who can find errors in drug choice, dosage, or interactions.

Instead, I read online that there now needs to be a safety zone where those mixing drugs will not be interrupted. I’ve been harping on that for 15 years. Sterile cockpit means that nobody talks about anything but the aircraft when the altitude is below 10,000 feet. In 2013, exactly four cases of incorrect medication being given were reported state-wide. Whatever the number, we aren’t learning from them. I later read that up to 440,000 deaths in the US occur from medical errors annually, and I don’t believe that number, either, because if we can’t even track something simple like the wrong medication’s being given, we can’t possibly know the number of medical errors. I offered a solution a decade ago, one that uses random sampling of hospitals, but I hit a Dead End sign.

I could have spoken to the students about our needing to count the number of prescriptions filled improperly, the number of prescribing errors made, and the number investigated, not to shame anybody, but to understand how many errors and what kinds of errors are made, so we could refine systems and know whether or not we had refined them successfully.

I think with examples compared to aviation, which I find compelling, we could start educating students the need to have a safe, effective, voluntary way to report safety issues. Maybe that generation would stand on my shoulders and see further than I.

No, I have spoken out on the topic enough, maybe too much. I’m out of date, but there are things still happening that shouldn’t be. A patient was recently awarded over $12 million from being given the wrong dosage of Amiodarone during a procedure. He is now brain-damaged for life. This was a preventable error. For him, normal life hit Dead End.

That’s far worse than the Dead Ends I’ve had.

Cummins Creek Trail, Oregon Coast

Cummins Creek Trail, Oregon Coast, 2014

THE DEMENTORS IN OUR SYSTEMS

October 24, 2015

I don’t speak out much any more about quality of care in medicine, mostly because I am out of date.  But I am not out of data.

Last July, I had a sudden dysrhythmia.  I was minding my own business one evening, checking  a sunflower, when I stood up and started noticing my pulse pounding irregularly.  I had no pain, and at first I thought it was a bunch of PVCs, premature contractions, although they were a little different.  I was alone, didn’t want the animals to be uncared for if I were admitted, so I did the next best thing.  I went to bed.  I awoke at 1 am and felt fine.

I saw my PCP the next morning, who had had a cancellation, and my EKG looked fine.  She recommended a Holter Monitor, so I wore one for 48 hours, during which time I hiked and had no symptoms.  The monitor showed a few supraventricular rapid beats, nothing solid, but not normal, either, so I was told I would need to see a cardiologist, and a referral sent.

Ten days later, I had no appointment. On my own, I stopped all caffeine and chocolate, and the few funny sensations I had had vanished.  Unfortunately, so did my referral.  An email to the office went unanswered for a week, until my PCP replied, asking me what the cardiologist said.  Well, I wrote, maybe he or she had said something, but not to me, since I had no appointment.  She apologized and within a few days I had an appointment 5 weeks later, nearly 8 weeks after my event.

I saw patients as emergencies the same day who had a 10 year history of the same headache with several normal CT scans. I have a dysrhythmia as a 66 year-old and it takes 8 weeks to see a cardiologist?  It’s a different world today.

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Later, my wife needed a GI evaluation.  A referral was faxed to the specialist’s office, and we were to get called back.  The office of the referring physician was about 150 meters away, as the crow flies, from the office of the new physician.  Two weeks later, we had heard nothing.  My wife called, and nobody knew where the referral was.  This sounds familiar.

My wife and I are not mildly or moderately demented, we are educated, knowledgable about medicine, and can afford our care.  What happens if one is demented, uneducated, or unclear about the medical system?  Most people are unclear.  I certainly am, and I practiced medicine.  Perhaps these people think (1) nothing needs to be done, (2) the physician wants money up front and they hadn’t paid in advance, (3) somebody had changed their mind, or (4) they might not have assumed anything, just forgotten about the referral, since they didn’t have it on our mind and didn’t follow up.

Sort of like what happened to those who sent the referral.

A phone call was answered pleasantly, and my wife was told the referral would be faxed over to the other physician’s office that day, there would be “three business days” to set up a future appointment, and then she could have the procedure.  With all due respect to electricity, I can walk a referral over almost as fast and with complete certainty deliver it to the right person.  With all due respect to the fact my style of practice isn’t done today, “business days” is redundant.  Every day was a “business day” for me.  I told my wife that we were going to go to the physician’s office that day.  It was a 15 minute drive, and there is something about a face-to-face interaction that gets things done quickly.  It’s far more difficult to ignore a person, unlike a call, e-mail, SMS, or some other electronic medium of communication.

We bypassed everything possible and had the appointment 46 hours later, one business day, to those who count such things.

The same week, I discovered my monthly medications had no refills.  I sent an email through the online patient portal and waited a week to hear.  Nothing.  I called the pharmacy, and they had received nothing but would call the physician’s office.  I waited another week, now two weeks late in getting my medications, and called the pharmacy to see if my prescriptions were ready.  I heard a “prescription” (indefinite article, singular) was ready, and when I stopped by, indeed, one was.  The second one?  Nowhere to be found.  The pharmacy tech was pleasant enough, however, saying she would call it again to the doctor’s office. Before she called, I asked to see the dose, having changed it several months earlier. It was the original amount.

Fortunately, I had plenty of the medication at home, since the pharmacy had not changed the dose, despite my having asked them to do so.  Two days later, I got a call from the pharmacy, telling me that they had been unable to reach the physician’s office.  So much for pharmacies’ calling physicians successfully.  I called and talked to an answering machine.  I would have walked over, but I figured I had a week to burn.  I still haven’t received the drug.

None of these three issues was serious.  Sadly, none of them is rare, either.  These sorts of things on a daily basis are Dementors, for they suck the happiness out of people.  Time spent fixing these problems is time that can’t be spent doing something more important, like promptly scheduling a patient, rather than have them wait on hold, which we all do.

There needs to be a better way to track referrals.  I can log on to Amazon, UPS, or USPS and immediately know the status of a package that I ordered thousands of miles away, yet I can’t find out in my own small city whether my referral has been seen by the specialist or where my medications are.  What happens if somebody is elderly, infirm, doesn’t hear or see well, and needs specialty care?  We are up in arms about the Affordable Care Act, yet virtually everybody is silent about the many broken systems in medicine that affect everybody in the country who seeks care, which is about all of us.  Am I just incredibly unlucky?  I doubt it.

As for pharmacy issues, I find it ironic I am having the same problem that my op-ed in the local paper addressed: pharmacies must start using the state error reporting system.  Oregon is the only state that includes pharmacies, but the 721 last year reported exactly 20 errors.  I alone have had three, and there are nearly four million people in the state.  I don’t think I am incredibly unlucky. What happened after my op-ed?  Choices: (1) few read it, (2) pharmacies jumped on board and are reporting like mad, or (3) nobody really cares, because we have high quality care.  A=1; B=2,C=3, D=1,3.  You choose.

Every broken system has countable and uncountable costs.  The countable ones are hours spent doing things twice, looking for something, fixing what is wrong, and spending time apologizing.  The uncountable ones are Dementors: annoyance, unhappiness, feeling of powerlessness, the wondering why, after so many years of stating what we need to do in medicine, why it still hasn’t been done.

THE SEASONS OF OUR LIVES

October 21, 2015

The 2015 Canoe Trip has been like the last twenty or so.  We fly to Minnesota, drive 4 hours north to Ely, get the gear we rented, drive to the entry point, our jumping off point, and the next morning, regardless of the weather, enter the wilderness, for entry permits are day and place sensitive.

We are both old now, although we do note with some pleasure a few more folks like us on the water than in years past.  I think it’s because the gear is better, lighter, and more convenient than it once was, and a lot of our generation grew up in the outdoors.  I don’t do the long travel trips that I once lived to do.  Instead, we go in a dozen miles, find a site we like, usually one we have stayed at before, pitch the tent, and settle in.

Fall Lake from the Fall-Newton portage, BWCA, 2015

Fall Lake from the Fall-Newton portage, BWCA, 2015

I like base camping.  It’s nice to pitch the tent and not have to take it down the next day to do another dozen miles.  Yeah, we could do it, but we’d pay for it a lot more.  The site we have is really nice.  It’s not one people go to by choice, I suspect, because there are only two tent sites, neither of which is great.  The one we use has me slide slowly towards my feet during the night.  I can live with that.

Down a bay is an isthmus site where I stayed in 2013.  It’s pretty, being ten yards from water to water at its narrowest spot.  There are a lot of tent pads, a decent kitchen area, and great sunsets.  I liked it and thought in 2014, when my wife was again well, we’d stay there.  She had seen the site once before with me when we were exploring and in 2014 we fully expected to stay there.

The isthmus campsite from our site on the point.  They get the sunset, we get the "Ross Light," a special light at sunset, coined by the great wilderness author Sig Olson.

The isthmus campsite from our site on the point. They get the sunset, we get the “Ross Light,” a special light at sunset, coined by the great wilderness author Sig Olson.

However, the site was taken. Bummer.  We paddled back out the bay, deciding to look at a site on the point.  It rises up some ledge rock from the lake, only 20-30 feet, but elevation matters in the Canoe Country.  We immediately noted the view down the lake a couple of miles to Canada and back to the isthmus site where we had just been.  Yeah, it’s work bringing the packs up, but we only have to do it once.  We get here in 4 1/2 hours and we often just sit for hours, watching the water and an occasional traveler.

Evening view down the lake

Evening view down the lake

We have learned that by sitting still, we see a lot more.  This is basic to observing nature, but in the past, I’ve been in a hurry to see what’s out there, not as conducive to seeing wildlife.  Last year, we were treated to a nightly show of beavers swimming into the small swampy inlet next to us.  This year, we had no beavers, although the beaver house was still nearby.

No matter, the weather was rainy for three straight days, so we got out for some short paddles and spent a lot of time in the tent, sleeping.  We sleep a lot out there.  The autumn colors were better last year; this year they are just beginning, although they were going to peak the week after we left. We get what we get.  The last full day out, we awoke to mist everywhere, threatening rain, figuring we’d take another day trip with the canoe.  The weather cleared, but then the wind came up, strong enough that we decided just to sit in camp the last day, reading, writing, looking down the long channel, or over to the isthmus.  We had a long paddle out the next day and wanted to save our arms.  At least that was our excuse.  Neither of us was looking at anything, just the trees that had changed color, the sky, the shadows, and the.….otters that suddenly appeared right off shore, three of them.  The day before, we watched one play with a stick on a rock face, before he ran down into the water.  We had missed the beaver show, but the otters played right below us, diving, allowing us to see them underwater, come up by a rock, by each other, and then disappear again.

IMG_6094 IMG_6097

Otter, Basswood Lake, BWCA, September 2015

Otter, Basswood Lake, BWCA, September 2015

By remaining silent, we saw a hermit thrush walk through camp, a Hairy Woodpecker and a Three-toed Woodpecker work on a dead birch tree near us.  Sometimes you see this stuff when you are traveling fast; the chances are greater you will if you sit still. I have long had the philosophy that wildlife viewings are a gift.  I never expect any, so if I see something, I feel blessed and grateful.  The otter viewing was the best I’ve seen, and I’ve seen a lot of otters.

We talked about what we would do when either of us or both of us can no longer do the work to get up here, or if the benefits don’t outweigh the effort, which can be considerable.  We can see those years in the future now.  It could be next year.  For my wife, 2013 was such a year.  On the other hand, we are able to do the work, and we hope maybe we’ve got a few more years out at this site until we need to move to a place that closer in, but still keeps us in the wilderness we’ve grown to love.  Eventually, we may have to stay in a cabin and canoe from there, not in the wilderness, but close to it.  That is how we hope our lives may play out.

There are many who say that age is just a number, but they are young and not wise in the ways of probability and genetics.  Things happen as we age.  The work necessary to get into this country requires strong enough arms to paddle long distances, often against headwinds, legs and body to carry packs and a canoe, decent balance to walk in camp, and ability to take care of oneself in the outdoors.  I’m relying heavily on experience these days.  On the trip in, the canoe went up on my head automatically, without my even thinking of it.   I can still move a canoe in any way I want it to go, I can read the sky and try to travel smart.  There are no guarantees, however.  I want to come out here as long and as I safely can.

I spend only a few nights every year up here.  They have now added up to more than three hundred in the border lakes country.  The special places I’ve seen are where I go in my mind when things are bad, life is difficult, and I need to mentally separate from the present.  Like the otter, I appear there, spend some time, then go, glad for what I experienced.

Eagle near the Canadian Border, BWCA

Eagle near the Canadian Border, BWCA