Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

ANOTHER LOSS

May 5, 2017

The following three commentators won today:  “I want my money going to fight North Korea, not to pay for somebody else’s knee.”

Joe Walsh’s tweet: “Sorry Jimmy Kimmel: your sad story doesn’t obligate me or anybody else to pay for somebody else’s health care.” Well, Mr. Walsh, I don’t want to pay for yours, either, but I recognize that any of us can be that somebody else, and a malignant cell, blood clot, virus, drunk driver, nut with a gun, bad choice in deciding to fix a roof, can make any of us easily a million dollar consumer of health care.

A hiking friend of mine won, the guy who couldn’t see why his taxes should go to pay for somebody else’s health care.  I liked him a lot until I heard that.  He carries too much weight.  Yes, I may end up using more medical resources than he, but insurance actuaries would rather insure me than him.

America’s greatness in no small part comes from our willingness as a nation to contribute to the collective good.  That means we pay taxes for a lot of things that never benefit us. I learned young that most of the land, parks, and other places in the West were paid for by people in the East who never saw them.  A trillion dollars in 20 years—yes, a trillion, and that would be a one followed by 12 zeros, with a “net” after it—went from my once home New York State to the federal government over the past 20 years.  Most of the red states in the Deep South got a net infusion of money from the government that so many of them despise.  This is either hypocrisy or ignorance.  Knowing the South, and I have walked across Tennessee, yes—walked, I suspect it is both.  The highest percentages of people with pre-existing conditions are in southern red states.  They have high percentages of teen pregnancy and gun violence, too.

I shouldn’t have to pay for the levees in New Orleans, when they are doomed to fail because of ocean rise, subsidence, and the Atchafalaya River. I would not have rebuilt the city after Katrina.  I no longer wish to pay for sand to be trucked in to East Coast beaches, and rebuilding in the same places after another hurricane, ocean rise, storms, bad building, and because nature reshapes beaches.  I am tired of paying for defense that goes on offense and causes worse problems than we started.  I didn’t think the Iraq war was right and my judgment was correct.  And yes, I don’t like paying for health care for people who smoke, use drugs, drink too much, don’t wear helmets when they should, eat too much meat, and are obese.

You know what?  I get a lot back from this country, even though I gave a lot to this country in time and taxes, and until now, I haven’t been keeping score. Now I am.  Conservative commentators who don’t want to pay for people’s health care have no problem driving on roads and crossing bridges in their state that I helped pay for.  Or laud the firing of cruise missiles that I also helped pay for.  Or send their children to good universities that I helped fund.  I have no kids, but I gladly pay to support education, because an educated population is a lot better than an uneducated one, as we have learned in spades these past 18 months.  The Republicans put together a crappy bill, rammed it through the House without hearings or CBO knowledge, not because the country was in dire straits because of health care issues (mostly their fault, since if they had worked to make the ACA better, it would have not been a problem), but because they wanted some legislative victory to go home to.  I hope they enjoy their town halls.

I’d wish the lot of them to be thrown out of office next year, but that won’t happen, because people have short memories, those who don’t get health care will be told it was Obama’s fault, and while the Democrats are great at asking for money, they aren’t so great when it comes to running good campaigns.  When I have given, all I heard was another email:  Give. They mean well, but let’s face it, we have this guy in office for at least four years, and the other night the news media started discussing his “first term,” so it’s likely to be eight.  The Democrats will blow it again in 2020, I’m sure.  True, the president might become incapacitated, but Pence is after him, and he believes that going to church would cure pre-existing conditions.  How he would deal with pregnancy, a pre-existing condition, and abortion, isn’t clear. Paul Ryan is after Pence.  I’m not going to be politically active for another 8 years, not after dealing with Nixon for 6, Reagan for 8 and Bush 43 for another 8.

I’m almost in the David Brooks camp about how the president is really a 3-4 on the worry meter, not the 11 so many of us peg him at.  But Brooks isn’t looking at the big picture: climate change, which neither he nor I will live to see wreak its full havoc, the educational system, and the results of our misadventures in Iraq, Afghanistan, and probably Syria and North Korea before this is all over.  Oh, we are marching, and the Democrats are running better than expected for open Congressional seats, but they are still losing.  The Democrats are really good at losing, and almost getting there isn’t a victory or even a message.  It is another loss.  “Wars aren’t won by evacuations,” as Churchill said after Dunkirk.  Ask the average American high school senior who Churchill was and why Dunkirk mattered, and you’d get a dumb stare.  Half the country can’t find the Ukraine within 1500 miles on a map of the world.  A significant number can’t find north, which these days might be useful in the US.

I am wondering at what point the American public is going to look at how the Republicans rammed through a bill that is going to make health care unaffordable, therefore inaccessible, for millions, clobber hospitals, who have to care for sick people who can’t pay, all in the name of a tax break to the wealthy.  There was no hurry to do this, other than to make the president look good, a president all of their other candidates last year tried to stop.  Now, they are embracing him, which means they own everything that happens to the country.  Everything. The Republicans complain of government overreach, yet they reach right into a woman’s life all the time, telling her what she cannot do.  They say people should be free to choose their doctor and health care, when the average person doesn’t have a clue how their body is put together and doesn’t have the money to pay for just one ED visit. I’m a physician, and when I moved to another city, I had no way to know who was a good doctor. The data are so bad that 19 years after I left practice, I was still given a 5-star rating online.  We’re not talking about Consumer Reports for Toyotas or Leafs, but medical care.  People need care, care that doesn’t bankrupt them.  I could ask that the care be better, but that’s next.

What’s unfortunate is that many of those who voted for this Congress and this president are going to be very hurt by what has happened, and they are not even aware of it.  Nor will most change their vote the next election.  But if 1% of them switched, which is the percentage Nicholas Kristof found, there might be hope.

1% to fight the 1%.

CRANE BEHAVIOR–HUMAN BEHAVIOR

April 14, 2017

 

Early in my stint volunteering at the crane migration last month, I thought four other guides, all women, disliked me.  For a day, I was unsettled, not certain what was going on, whether it was my issue, theirs, or no issue at all.

I perceived that some were taking control over the tours; since two people lead a tour to the viewing blinds, it’s incumbent upon them to be clear what each person will do, and this wasn’t happening.  To my blame, I wasn’t doing my part, either.  I trained when there was a lead guide and an assistant guide, and there isn’t a distinction any more.  I think there probably should be.  About four or five years ago, I was lead guide when we had to come out of a blind, in a blizzard, cranes in the field behind us, through which we had to walk, but which we didn’t want to disturb, with several very cold clients, and the hour was late.  My assistant was a woman who wasn’t afraid to voice anything with anybody.  I looked at her and asked for her thoughts.

“You’re the lead guide,” she told me straight up, “you decide.”

I decided to take our chance with not disturbing the cranes, and we left the blind, and got everybody to the vehicles, much colder, but now safer.  It was a nasty night out there.  Somebody needed to decide, and I was that person.

What I was seeing this year were guides who were stopping and giving talks, either before going to the blinds or coming back.  I don’t have a problem with this, so long as the clients are getting enough time to see the cranes and we aren’t disturbing the birds.  But I was cut out of the loop.  I was not talking, not being asked whether there is anything I should add, and I had been guiding many more years and times than three of the four women.

I wasn’t comfortable with the situation, and as I analyzed my thoughts, I realized the women weren’t abusing power; they just weren’t talking to me. They might have seen me as trying to assert power and they didn’t like it. They might have thought I didn’t want to talk, I don’t know.  I also didn’t know what these women did outside of their volunteer service, how their health had been, and how they perceived me. Stated bluntly, I was flying blind.

I told myself I had two choices: to stew over this or to learn something about who the women were, as difficult as this is for me, and if I were on a tour with one, make sure the tour ran as smoothly has possible, regardless of whether or not I spoke, and regardless of whether or not the clients perceived me only as a helper.  My job was to make the tour experience good, and I set out to do that.

In the gift shop, I approached one of the women and asked her about her job, which I knew had been with the State Department.  I learned a whole lot more.  She had had an interesting government career, working at the CIA, on The Hill, and finally at the South Asia desk at the State Department.  She went to work each day wondering whether two of the nuclear countries in her purview were going to go to war.  That’s stress.  She loved her job, going each day knowing she was making a huge difference in the world, for her desk covered a quarter of the Earth’s people and half the trouble spots, as she put it. I never guided with her, but I felt less tension working around her when we weren’t guiding, and I approached her with a lot more respect.  With her friend from DC, I didn’t have much contact, but approached her the same way.  The third woman was also from the East Coast and took over the guiding talks before we went into the blinds. One blind was reserved for people who had disabilities, so when we were both assigned to that blind, I offered to drive the golf cart to take the disabled clients there.  I arrived in the blind a few minutes after everybody else after most of the conversation had taken place.  I still had plenty of questions from clients, and the guide even asked me one, which after a little research, I was able to answer.  At the end of the evening, I drove the golf cart back and again missed the conversation the woman had with the clients at the conclusion.  I had helped, I did things that were necessary and stayed out of the way when it was wise that I needed to be out of the way.

I no longer have any great desire to be lead guide, but I do want to take people to the viewing blinds, because I get to view the cranes.  When I began guiding, 7 years ago, I wanted to be lead guide all the time.  I now have nothing to prove, I am willing to mentor, help, stay out of the way if necessary, but always be present if needed.  This third guide was never friendly towards me, but she was never unfriendly, either.  She seemed pre-occupied with personal matters, and I tried to be pleasant without prying. A wise male friend of mine once told me that when you have an interaction with another, you often have no idea what kind of day or life they are having.  It’s worth remembering.  I didn’t go out of my way to talk this woman, but I stopped feeling uncomfortable around her, too.

The last was a local who had more experience than I, who also liked to give talks to the clients.  I found that by taking care of other issues in the blinds, closing certain windows to keep the wind out, fixing one of the windows, making sure the spotting scope was set up, and doing little chores that needed to be done, that I was helpful and a resource during the tour.  By the end of my stay, she and I were having reasonable conversations.  We won’t ever be good friends, but we get along.  That is a big step above being uncomfortable or sullen.  I am a good guide, and I know it. I am working with other good guides, too. My job is to do whatever necessary to ensure the people have a safe, pleasant viewing experience, and I did that.  I do think there needs to be a lead guide, however, and I recommended it.

I’ll be happy to work under the woman who might have stopped a nuclear war in South Asia.  She will know what to do with a sedge of cranes or an unhappy client.

 

DINOSAUR

April 9, 2017

I started using my first cellphone in 1990, but even as late as 1999, I still used a pager.  When I tried to replace it, I was told nobody used them any more.  I did, and I liked it.  A pager was easy, I knew what number to call, and usually it was something important.  The cell phone finally supplanted my pager, and I no longer know where every pay phone is (or have a pocket full of dimes—er… quarters), not that there are any of them around, but many of my incoming calls are either spam or wrong numbers.  Every technology has untoward, unforeseen side effects.

I have never tweeted.  I do have an account, but I’ve never seen a need to follow somebody on Twitter, since I have my own life to live, not follow somebody else’s.  I haven’t missed much, although I did stun a few people when I admitted I didn’t know anything about the Kardashians. I’d rather know how to backpack, read the sky, start a fire when it’s pouring rain, how to canoe trip, or how to do basic math than worry about somebody famous.  I can’t write well and quickly.  I need time to think; technology does not play to my strengths in this regard, but rather to my weaknesses.

On a recent hike, a few of us saw a flower we couldn’t identify. Somebody asked me if I had an app to identify it. Being a dinosaur, I don’t have such, any more than I have an app to look at the night sky or the types of clouds overhead.  I usually ask someone or look it up when I get home.  Dinosaurs do those sorts of things. I need to get better at flowers; I know my way around the night sky just fine.

Nonetheless, I looked at flower identification apps, found one that seemed useful, bought it, after having to change my password for the app store, because I couldn’t remember it, since I don’t buy apps very often, and took a picture of an Oregon Grape as a test.  I figured the app would match it to a known picture, just like on my computer, where I kept seeing unwanted pictures of people in the background of my photographs whom I couldn’t get rid of until I got lucky with a few buttons (which showed me where the strange face came from–it was a high jumper at the Olympic trials in 2012).  If we can match faces, I reasoned, certainly we can certainly match flowers.

I had to fill in information about the plant, which bothered me, because I thought the flower would be matched with a database. Come on, if American Airlines can send me an ad offering “up to 30% off” sharing miles, two days after I viewed the their offer (20% for under 25,000 miles and nothing off on the fee), we ought be able to match an picture to a plant.  I was informed that I would get an answer within 24 hours from a botanist, to whom I could pay $0.99.   In other words, the identification is not by matching, and I have to pay for it.  Bluntly speaking, another fee, explained as “Many experienced botanists make effort….It is a process requiring their time and knowledge.”

OK, I understand the idea that I’m getting a service that has worth.  I won’t use the app.  I’ll teach myself from now on.  Having answered more than 5300 math problems for free on algebra.com, until now quietly and with no fanfare, I wonder why I am such a chump Dino when I could easily charge a dollar or more for each problem solved, three dollars for showing work, which takes maybe a minute longer, and ask for renumeration for my “efforts” using PayPal. More than one student has wanted me to help them. I won’t charge for two reasons: first, I am a chump. I believe I should to give back to the community by helping people, and second, I quit using PayPal ever since they took a deposit on an outdoor trip I paid, said they could only dole it out $500 a month, so that I had to come up with more money to pay for the trip by check, and meantime I could, if I wished, donate my money held by them to a charity of their choosing.  I don’t know how many of my buttons PayPal pushed with that maneuver, but it was plenty.

I was not the only Dino at Rowe Sanctuary when the new young paid staff had an online sign up sheet for volunteer jobs.  We had signed up online for years, and it worked fine until this year, when they used a free web site and stopped using the jobs Board listing three consecutive days of who was doing what job.  I made the jobs Board back in 2008, and it had been, until this year, a quick and easy way to see what jobs needed done and what one’s responsibilities were on a particular day.  The free web site is slow, because it’s free and oh, we’d also like you to look at the ads.  I don’t like slow loading web sites, because I don’t know if it is the website or the computer has locked up.  Once the site loads, then I have to scroll through every job listed for one day.  It’s slow and inefficient, unless one is young, I guess.  I also didn’t like the volunteer orientation with PowerPoint slides that I can read in 3 seconds then have to listen to somebody else read them over a minute or two.  That drives me crazy.  PowerPoint has been shown to do bad things: Tufte’s article about the Columbia space disaster and the concerns raised by PowerPoint presentations beforehand makes compelling reading.  General McChrystal once said that if he could understand a single PowerPoint slide about Afghanistan (amazing to see), he could win the war. I loved Tufte’s comment: “Why are our presentations operating at 2% of the data richness of routine tables found in the sports section? ” Indeed.  In seconds, I understand the NHL or NBA playoff picture, and I follow them only peripherally.

I’m a Dino, because I recently heard that email is passé.  Well, not to me it isn’t.  I like to read what I have written, make changes so it sounds better, and put in little things like “Dear xxxx,” and “Sincerely yours”.  To me, platforms like Skype, Messenger, and WhatsApp, which I have used a lot, while useful, can be huge time wasters.  Skype is horrible for email.  Get somebody on one of them who is lamming—chatting with somebody else online or in person simultaneously, for example—and if there is a gap in the chat, one doesn’t know whether to stay online wasting time or do something else, like read a paper book, feeling rude to leave.  Dinosaurs have different values.

I realize I am falling further behind the technology curve. I still have a decent idea of what technology is good and not good for.  I no longer need Bartlett’s book of quotations, I can find lyrics to any song I wish and even listen to one, and I can write faster than I could on a typewriter.  Calculators are great for the math I can’t possibly do myself, although I still have ability—no longer taught any more—to determine whether or not an answer makes sense just by looking at it. I’m great at that.

I guess I’ve become the curmudgeon that as a kid I made fun of.  Sorry, gramps, or not.  Maybe like me you had no children.  But you were right.  The world is going to hell.

TOO MUCH BRISTLE

April 3, 2017

After leading one of my typical, long, difficult hikes, 16 miles with over 4400 feet of total elevation gain, one of the participants posted his pictures and said he hoped Advil and 12 hours of sleep would help him recover.  A club member, not on the hike, posted back that there was evidence Advil might interfere with his recovery, giving a blog reference.  This is not new information: non-steroidals, like Advil, have been implicated in slowing of recovery, slight intestinal compromise (coliforms in the blood), and effect upon renal blood flow which might be detrimental if one were dehydrated.  The blog link was posted with a comment that the writer, a physician, was still riding a bike in his eighties, “so he must know what he is talking about.”

I bristle at this sort of stuff, because I’m a doctor with a blog, too, and while I’m not riding a bike in my eighties, I’m doing a lot of hiking in my late 60s, and that makes me an expert in….maybe math or eclipses, but not much else.  Just because somebody is an MD and rides a bike in his 80s doesn’t make him an expert any more than a guy who speaks 5 languages can teach them.  Or a former neurosurgeon can run housing and urban development.  Doctors tend to think they’re experts in non-medical fields, too, so be careful what is taken away from my writing.  Let’s be clear.  I’m still hiking because I inherited good genes, and along the way I’ve tried to take care of myself.  The genes matter a lot.  The right genes make Olympic athletes, Tour de France riders, Track and Field champions in Eugene, and decent hikers.  Yes, we all have potential, which we reach by eating properly and training properly, eschewing bad things.  But make no mistake: all the training in the world isn’t going to make me into an Olympic athlete.  Miss a few key alleles, and you end up eighth in the Olympic trials—national class, but not on the Olympic stage, even if you trained harder than the winner.  I could no more run or perform at their speed with any amount of training than I could play the piano well with any amount of instruction and practice.  I tried the piano for three years.  I played in a couple of recitals.  It was good to be able to read and to play music.  But you never found me in an orchestra.  All men and women are created. Equal they are not.

I bristled again when I later read the link to the doctor’s blog, which detailed how NSAIDs can lessen recovery of muscle and hardening of bone with resistance.  The cohort was 90 post-menopausal women who for nine months were given resistance training three times a week followed by Advil.  To extrapolate this study to a 65 year-old man who took Advil once after a long hike—a very different sort of exercise—one time only, is inappropriate, because frankly the implication that he wasn’t going to have benefited from the hike was wrong. I commented on the study, left the comment up for all of 10 minutes and then deleted it.  I like the person writing and didn’t want to get into a discussion about inappropriate extrapolation.  I try to do all the right things in life in hopes that by improving the probability of a good outcome, I will live healthier and longer.  In fairness to the doctor, he did say more research was needed.  He’s right.

The fact that someone in the club immediately stepped in with advice not surprising, not only here, but in most instances where I have been doing group activities. I tend not to give advice unless asked, and even then I’m wary.  Most people neither want it nor take it, and these days there is too much to argue about.  I’m disappointed that many club members belittle my vegetarian diet (which thankfully no longer makes me bristle too much), when their consumption of meat is clearly harmful to both them and the environment.  I continue to be asked how I could possibly be getting enough protein, which I obviously do, or why I shouldn’t eat apple seeds (I eat the whole apple, with an occasional seed.)  It’s not arsenic, as I was mistakenly told, but cyans, which aren’t an issue unless one eats thousands. I’ve been asked how I manage my electrolytes (I don’t; that’s my kidney’s job, and I would be well advised to let them do it). I’ve been told my walking stick will make my legs weaker (really!), why I should have this or that energy/protein/carbohydrate drink, and how much and when I should drink water. I’ve been told to read such and such or such and such, enough to make me wonder how I could hike a 26.6 mile trail last year, set a pace for my partner, and get in 2 hours faster than everybody else, not counting the hour on the trail we waited, drive home that night and wake up the next morning feeling fine.  Genetics. Training for it.  Moving along steadily.  Not arguing about what I ate, using my mouth to breathe and not gab.

It’s easier to hike alone, and I’d do more of it, but there are some women and others in the club who want to do long, difficult hikes and also feel safe doing it, so I lead a few hikes for them. I feel alive by going out there and covering ground, getting deep in the back country, seeing what is out there, which is a lot, and coming out the same day.  If it is 20 miles, I don’t waste time.  If it is scenery, I go hard to get to the right place then enjoy it.  I’m grateful I can do these hikes; I don’t know how much longer I can.  In the meantime, there’s a lot of wild country to explore, far more interesting than discussing Advil, electrolytes, and diet.

My reply:

What sports medicine really needs is to get clear answers to a lot of questions like this, nutrition, and various trainings-du-jour or d’année. There are far too many conflicting studies (fat good/bad, carbo(hydrates) good/bad), protein good always, which it isn’t, especially in women, regression analyses of dubious value that people treat as gold standards (e.g. max heart rate that became a competition when I was on the bike). We need to get away from the idea that if some super star does something, it must be right. Most of them are genetically gifted. (To those who doubt me, I would reply that anybody can do mental math if they just work at it hard enough). As Joe Average, I do what seems to work for me. I try not to take Advil afterward any more, and I seem to be less sore, but that’s hardly a study. 

TRUE FRIEND

March 30, 2017

I got another one of those “copy and paste, don’t share” posts on Facebook from somebody who was trying to send a message against cancer.  I was told that “the true friends of mine” would be the ones who did that.

Initially, I felt the urge to do something.  After all, who among us turns down a chance to be a true friend?  Then the feeling turned into annoyance, and I started to wonder how well I knew this person, whom I do see every week.  It is emotional blackmail, and I don’t like it.  I practiced medicine for 20 years, was in the medical field for about 35, and diagnosed and treated many people with cancer.  I allowed many to die without prolonging their pain.  I lost a brother to esophageal cancer, and I treated thousands of people who had various neurological conditions affected by cancer.  That was my contribution.  I won’t be copying and pasting to my profile. The best message we could send would be to protest the billion dollar cut to the NIH, the current budget of which is the net worth of each of four Waltons. Stated another way, if each Walton donated his or her entire net worth, they could fund NIH for a year. Mathematically, that is a $1000 a second for a year.  That would do more to further cancer research than pasting a post.

I don’t do certain things on Facebook, such as to share whatever somebody tells me. I’ve shared three things in the eight years I’ve been on it.  I don’t put likes on pages where somebody wants a certain number of likes.  I don’t contribute money to undoubtedly good charities when asked; I have my own list.  I don’t post certain pictures, even ones of nature, for somebody’s collection.  I comment where I should and try not to comment where I shouldn’t.  I delete a lot of my comments.  The most likes I’ve had came from a comment I almost later deleted, because it sounded too hokey, about being a third generation American whose maternal grandfather came over from Ireland. I wrote that I while I was proud of my heritage, I was prouder that I served America as a shipboard naval officer, even though I didn’t do much more than fill a billet on an amphibious cargo ship in the Western Pacific for twenty-three months.  Sure, I did two appendectomies at sea, one by myself, probably reassured some on board, and maybe because of my presence a few slept better at night, but it wasn’t like I was “In Country,” that being Vietnam, which I was 25 miles off the coast of one night, but not in a combat role.  Anyway, that comment got 285 likes and a lot of thanks for my service, which I neither wished nor frankly deserved, since most of us had to serve back when I was in my 20s.

I’m not going to be a “true friend,” because true friends don’t ask others to do something to show their friendship.  Someone I call a good friend was chewed out at the hiking club’s executive meeting for having organized the first trail clearing we did after the ice storm devastated the city and the trails. Several of us showed up, including club board members, and we all worked together, nobody nominally in charge.  We took safety precautions, with hard hats, didn’t do things we weren’t comfortable doing, and cleared a lot of debris.

The head of the trail maintenance committee chewed my friend out at a board meeting, without involving me or two others who “led” trail clearing hikes.  That wasn’t fair.  My friend, one who did every hike he could, stopped hiking so much and started hiking in the closed area, since we had already knew what the trail condition was like.  The closed area was filled with dog walkers and trail runners, and the signs stating closure were poorly visible with no enforcement.  The club wasn’t hiking there, but one snowy morning, my friend called me and asked if I wanted to do a “rogue hike,” as he called it, up the mountain.  I was game, so I went by bus as far as I could, he picked me up, we went to the trailhead and up the mountain.  Frankly, it was the best hike I’ve ever done there, and I’ve done it well north of 100 times.  He later posted that I was a “true friend,” and I had I guess a warm feeling, but  I was more in it for myself.  I haven’t quite felt the same about the club ever since.  We did nothing wrong, and while I will participate in hikes and continue leading, both will be much fewer in number.  That’s too bad. I don’t look at some of my other friends there in quite the same light after this event.

There are people I know never read my posts.  No reason they should.  I’ve been unfriended twice, both from Germans; I prefer to block offending posts or offending people without unfriending them.  Each to his or her own; life is too short to argue about such matters.

I just got back from Nebraska where I had the honor, privilege and pure joy to take several hundred people over the space of eight days out to the viewing blinds where they could see the arrival of the Sandhill cranes at the Platte River at night and their departure in the morning.  I’m selfish there, too.  I go to Rowe Sanctuary because I want to see Sandhill cranes.  I get a big charge out of watching 25,000 birds lift off the river, or land that night.  If that means I have to staff the gift shop, clean toilets, or run the information desk, so be it. I will. I like doing those jobs, too. I like to teach, and I can tell people in all three places, including the toilets, why the cranes are there, where they came from, how long they will stay, and where they are going.

Yesterday on Facebook one of my friends said that after viewing my pictures and videos, his wife said they ought to go to Nebraska next year.  I replied that I don’t use the word “should” in the second person, for I find that too judgmental.  I simply wrote that I found the place unique and magical.  No volunteer at Rowe would dispute those two words.  Not one.  Most would add several other terms, like spectacular, mind-blowing, jaw-dropping, or once in a lifetime.  I hope he and his wife come there next year, but I won’t push it, any more than I am pushing people to see totality in August.

Good friends offer information and suggestions when asked, show up when they are needed.  Otherwise, they offer support rather than advice, don’t keep score or quote a price.

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Sunset on the Platte, March 2017.  Sandhill Crane migration.

 

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My friend tackling a downed tree after the ice storm.

A LA CARTE

March 16, 2017

“Politics is not just about power and money games, politics can be about the improvement of people’s lives, about lessening human suffering in our world and bringing about more peace and more justice.”  Paul Wellstone

I miss Paul Wellstone.  The American Health Care Act (AHCA) was pushed through the House at lightning speed.  Fortunately, House bills don’t go directly to the President.  There is the Senate.  The idea, however, was to get this bill passed, so the representatives could go back to their districts without dealing with angry constituents.

Oh, there will be some angry confrontations to be sure, but unlike the roll out of the Affordable Care Act, there will be no debate at town halls.  Then representative Gabrielle Giffords had raucous ones, including one that ended rather quickly when a firearm fell out of a guy’s pocket.  This was, after all, Arizona.  I’d say that Giffords was shot by Tea Party activists, but that isn’t true, not that the truth matters much in today’s America.  No, she was shot by a mentally ill individual who had access to a gun (another story that is going to likely happen again in today’s America, but I won’t discuss that issue here).  The Tea Party was thrilled, I’m sure, since they have no shame, and they are thrilled that the hated “Obamacare” is again repealed.

It is obvious that the Republicans had no health care plan ready for rollout, or they would have had it on the table 3 January, had it passed and to the Senate on 21 January, if they worked on Saturday, which many of “the little people” do.  This bill was cobbled together with little input from many, including other Republicans, who are likely going to be wrong about the anger of their constituents, since the Senate will not pass this bill as it stands.  There appear to be three groups of Republicans: those who like the bill, those who think it didn’t go far enough, and a small, but important few who think what we had was worth preserving.

There is a lot about the AHCA that I could address, but I will stick to five comments.  First, what people call it is important.  A significant number think Obamacare and the ACA are different, and the Republicans succeeded in making “Obamacare” a hated name.  Shame goes to the Democrats and journalists who bought into that.  Currently, there is some effort to tell us not to label the AHCA “Trumpcare,” which Paul Krugman says we should.  I agree with him, even if I have to use the name.  I prefer Voldemort.

Second, the bill has a mandate that if somebody lets his or her insurance lapse, they must pay a 30% increase in premiums to get covered again.  This mandated tax—let’s call it what it is—will hurt many, those who don’t understand insurance, don’t get, open, or understand their mail, and may throw things out without realizing how important they are.  These very people—and there are many of them— stand to be hurt by an increase in premiums, and I suspect their health is normally not very good.  A lot them are poor, elderly, people of color, uneducated, unemployed or underemployed, who won’t be able to understand their coverage.

Third, the notion of à la carte insurance presupposes people know what medical problems they will have in their lifetime.  I’m a neurologist who trained until he was 32, knew a great deal about disease, and I would not have guessed the things I’ve had that I wouldn’t have suspected.  We don’t know what medical conditions we will have. Individuals don’t have that knowledge, Mr. Ryan. When they get ill, they want help and treatment, not to shop to compare insurance companies and enjoy a “free market” with “competition,” comparing plans in the comfort of their trailer home which isn’t paid for, and may not have food or heat.  People don’t have the knowledge to know what the insurance company is offering and more importantly not offering.  Those Mr. Ryan thinks will benefit from competition won’t, because they can’t understand the complexity of medical care.  No, I don’t want people trying to choose what medical conditions they want to cover. They can’t and shouldn’t.

Finally, catastrophic care should be covered, even if it once failed to pass, because it would have taxed only the elderly.  My late father, the epitome of a rational person, became totally unglued about the Catastrophic Care Act of 1988.  I didn’t dare mention it in his presence. Such conditions strike at any age and are almost by definition unpredictable. The biggest killer of people 15-44 is unintentional injury (read: accidents), double that of suicide, homicide, cardiac disease, and cancer, all of which are about the same.  The common causes of ED visits are fever, otitis media, open wounds, contusions, sprains and strains: 1 in 5 in the ED were not insured (in 2010), and given the heavy use of CT and MRI imaging, injuries are expensive to treat.

À la carte coverage, like insuring oneself for what one thinks he will need, should be banned.  As for those who believe men shouldn’t have to pay for women’s health care, this is a slippery slope for people like me who might say I shouldn’t have to pay for people who don’t eat right, smoke, chew, drink, have guns in their homes, don’t wear seat belts, are overweight, don’t exercise, take recreational drugs, and aren’t vegetarian, for a start.  It doesn’t work. We can vary premiums a little, but when we start treading into areas that people are genetically or physically unable to control, we are asking for trouble.  No, I can never get pregnant, but a woman can’t get prostatitis and has a lower incidence of cardiovascular disease than I do.  As for paying for birth control, I can’t think of many better cost-effective remedies, since fewer unwanted children takes pressure off young families, schools, jobs, and the whole health care system.  We ought to pay women for taking birth control pills and tax men who use anti-ED drugs, since we need fewer sperm floating around.

Finally, we need a single payer system, like the one John Conyers introduced again, as he has since 2003.  This would decrease overhead percentage dramatically, allow for standardization where it matters, require negotiation for drug costs, and track illnesses, treatment, quality, and yes—errors.  A single payer system wouldn’t cover everything, but it would cover what Medicare does.  It wouldn’t cover abortion, but it would cover contraception.  It would cover what is scientifically known and rapidly cover what appears to be known. Insurance companies could sell supplementals with varying deductibles, for those who wish them to cover those conditions not necessarily covered under the standard policy, ED drugs being my favorite for non-coverage, but hey, I’m willing to bargain.

My bottom line: repealing the ACA before knowing how many million would lose coverage  was heartless. People will die because of this bill, should it become law. Long term thinking would say providing medical care to the whole country would save money in the long run and be in keeping with our ideals.

At least the ideals we once had.

WHY REPLACE THE PLANETARIUM PROJECTOR?

March 10, 2017

“I have a question for you!”  I looked down at the four-year old girl, accompanied by her mother.  I had just finished an afternoon planetarium show at The Science Factory, a local children’s hands-on museum, and I got down on my knees so our heads were at the same level, and asked what her question was.

“Who named the stars?”

“What a great question!” I answered.  The mother was a little embarrassed, I think, but the little girl demanded an answer.  “Why, they were named by the ancient Arabs, the Persians, and the Greeks,” I said, “who lived in places where it was clear at night and real, real dark, because there was no electricity.  I find some of the names beautiful, like Shaula, Adhara, Albireo, Nunki, and Denebola. What do you think?” She was fascinated but liked Regulus the best. She liked lions.   I think her mother enjoyed the interchange, too. The question made my day.  Maybe I made both of their days, too.

Examples like this are the reason I am writing in support of replacing the planetarium projector, which finally burned out, and I am willing to back up my support as a four figure donor, which information I normally don’t give out, but times are hard.

I’ve used a planetarium show to point out that escaped slaves on the Underground Railroad knew how to find the North Star, whereas very few Americans today can find Polaris.  Knowing how to find north mattered.  Nowadays, a large plurality of Americans would rather study astrology than find north.  I can think of three other ways to find north—without a compass.  Many think Polaris is the brightest nighttime star.  Nope.  It ranks 49th; Sirius is the brightest.  You learn that in the planetarium. I’ve discussed, during and after a show, how one can learn her way around the night sky, treating it like a map of a city, going from the major streets to the minor ones.  It’s easy in the planetarium, when all the major landmarks are on the dome above you, exactly as they appear in the night sky on any date, time or place in the world we choose.

I have volunteered in the planetarium the past two years. The Science Factory needs it as an anchor and Eugene needs it as a tourist attraction.  When I lived in Tucson, Flandrau Planetarium was an excellent astronomy museum, but it was on the University of Arizona campus, where parking was difficult. The Science Factory is easy to find in Eugene, parking is 100 yards from the facility, and a good planetarium is a major attraction, where parents and children together can learn science and the night sky.  The planetarium can inspire questions, teach people how to find the bright stars and planets and learn about the effects of light pollution on our ability to see the night sky.  We could use lectures, I suppose, but the ability to take people on a tour of the night sky in daytime can’t be done anywhere else but in a planetarium.  I’ve had fun turning the calendar forward 10,000 years to see what the sky would look like.  Or change the latitude and longitude and pretend I’m in New Zealand, where back in ’86 I was under some of the darkest skies I ever have seen, on the main road on the west side of South Island by Lake Moeraki.  I wrote two columns about the fabulous Southern sky down there.

I find it ironic that this year, when a long-awaited, exceedingly rare total solar eclipse will race across Oregon, the loss of the current projector makes some on the Board consider closing the planetarium. Boards don’t like to spend money or make tough decisions, I guess.  Boards like things simple, I think. I’m not sure, because other than medical societies, I’ve never been asked to serve on a Board.  I’m not an important person, except when it comes to donating money.  Then I’m courted by many.  But when it comes to ideas, experience, doing something differently, taking some risks, well, we need important people to do that, not some retired science nerd without connections.

Of course we need a planetarium in Eugene, and indeed, the eclipse this August makes it an excellent time to have a fund drive to replace the projector. Normally, I don’t tell people how much I am willing to donate, but since most of the good I’ve done in life appears to have been donations, I figured I would put my money where my mouth is and tell those important people on the Board what I was willing to donate, after I wrote a shorter, more polite, version of the above, so they knew that I had a brain and knew astronomy, planetariums, and the night sky, besides having money to donate.

I continued, writing I found it additionally ironic that literally in the shadow of Autzen Stadium, where no dollar is spared for athletics, we might let The Science Factory—and Eugene–lose an important educational and tourist attraction that will influence people far more and far longer than a football game.  The last coach was fired with about $10 million left on his contract.  The new coach’s strength coordinator, on the second day of the job, put three players in the hospital with rhabdomyolysis, caused by an over strenuous workout likely hurting their renal function permanently, since two of them stayed for nearly a week.  You need to be diuresed when this happens, in order to try to save the kidneys.  For all I know, they might have even had temporary dialysis.  Another assistant coach was paid $61,000 before being fired for driving drunk and hitting another car, two weeks on the job.  The first game isn’t until September.  The last president at the University had a million dollar severance package when he was let go early.  I’m not Mr. Personality, but I have more people skills than this guy had. I’m sure the Duck Athletic Fund Board and the Regents are full of important people, but with all due respect, I think their financial management and judgment could be improved. Who knows, maybe a nobody like me might actually make better decisions.  Mind you, I didn’t say all that in the letter, but I left a lot of lines to read between.

I ended my letter with the answer I gave the girl’s question, rather than putting it in the body.  I wanted them to read wondering who named the stars. Not knowing something is good for people.  It takes them out of their comfort zone, so they have to wonder.  I like having to wonder.  It leads to thinking, asking, or looking it up, all a reminder that none of us is as smart as we think we are.

I later wrote my contact at The Science Factory to count me in as a donor for the planetarium and a volunteer projectionist when she needs me.  But I won’t give one red cent to the Duck Athletic Fund.

Priorities.

QUITTING BRIDGE…AGAIN

March 5, 2017

I like bridge, but I have found many who play it often less than charitable to those of us not skilled.  I started reading the bridge column fifteen years ago, read a few books about the game, liked it, and on a cruise ship to the 2005 eclipse, played a little. During the last few months of my father’s life, I played with him and his group.

I played “party bridge,” often disparaged by those who play duplicate, members of the American Contract Bridge League (ACBL) who get Master’s Points from tournaments, hoping some day to become a Life Master. I would be careful to disparage party bridge.  Good players can be anywhere, and dissing one style of play is like my saying that somebody who just learned basic algebra doesn’t know real math, because I know much more.  Good for the learner.  They learned something.

I wasn’t good at bridge.  Occasionally, I would do the right thing, because bridge is a game of probabilities, and sometimes the stars align.  With time, I did a few more good things, meaning I was learning, but too many people with whom I played were neither helpful nor nice.  “Four points?  I’ve never seen a response with four points.” I had four trumps, a side ace, and distribution, for those who know the game.  Or “Why didn’t you bid xxxx?”  There are a lot of mistakes one can make in bridge, and there is no shortage of critics, many of whom are dead wrong.  They have to be, because I was criticized on the same hand and being told contradictory things.  That happened a lot when I played basketball in city league, too, and I found it annoying.

At the beginning of the session, the head of the club said that comments about play were not to be offered unless asked for.  It was a nice thought, but it failed in practice.  One man was particularly nasty.  I didn’t understand his bidding, and he always had to have his style followed.  One day, he finessed me correctly for the king of hearts, knowing that eventually he would capture it.  I had 4 cards in hearts, including the king, and rather than not playing the king last, played it on the third round.  He took it and continued his play, rather surprised when I turned up with the missing heart at the end, sinking his contract.  I had learned through reading the technique of playing a “dead” honor sooner than expected.  I remained silent.  He hadn’t counted trump.

The last day I played at the club, my partner made a bid that I misinterpreted.  Had she passed, which she should have (she preempted over a preempt, for those who know the game, and one doesn’t do that), I would have defeated the contract four tricks.  Instead, my misinterpretation cost us being set two.  I was loudly criticized by the other three people at the table and never returned.

I read the bridge column every day; my wife and I occasionally deal out hands and play them.  These allow me time to safely think and process.

After a seven year hiatus, on a cruise to the 2016 eclipse in Indonesia, I decided to play on board, not surprisingly finding myself the worst player in the room.  Bridge is a sedentary game, and while I try not to be too judgmental, many there needed to do more physical activity.  I played duplicate bridge three afternoons, calling it quits after the third.  I was paired with a different person each day, and with a partner one doesn’t know, bridge is even more difficult. I wasn’t the only one who made mistakes, and the tone of voice may not have sounded critical to the owner, but it did to me, whether I was being criticized or somebody else.  There is a way to correct people that works, and good teachers know it.  Unfortunately, there are not many good teachers.

I ran into my last partner later in the cruise.  He had played for years and explained bridge players clearly, so clearly I wondered why I never figured it out.  You see, the irony is that I am good at numbers, probability, and have a decent memory, which should make me a great bridge player.  But I have a big deficit: I process slowly, bridge is a timed game, and most play it even faster.  I can’t keep track of cards when they are played quickly.  My partner simplified matters: “The best bridge players are options traders: they have to be quick with numbers and risk averse.”  That doesn’t describe me at all.

There are those who teach bridge, but I am reluctant to seek them out, because frankly, not many are good at teaching.  I am. I understand different styles of learning, I understand that not everybody knows something as well as I, and I try to be patient.  I do this when I tutor math, show people the night sky, or explain medical conditions.  I’m enthusiastic, not critical.

What I need is a bridge hand where everything is played slowly.  I need a chance to figure out who has what and decide what to play next, being gently guided with tips how to keep track.  The bridge I have played isn’t this way.  I know it exists somewhere, but not where I’ve been.  In a sense, bridge reminds me of learning German.  I was always in a group of better speakers, but I couldn’t find one who would work with me to make me better.  It is why after 3 years I eventually gave up trying to be fluent, yet can understand it well enough to teach beginners how to go about learning it, because the teachers and online methods I know are insufficient.

I will return to reading books on bridge and watching German videos alone. I enjoy both.  I will continue to devote efforts to volunteering as a math tutor both at the community college and online, where the comments about my teaching are “You are awesome,” or “Thank you for explaining everything so clearly <3.”

I understand math.  I understand that people have different learning styles, so I teach to the person.  Perhaps most importantly, I realize that many don’t “get” math the way I do and never will.  I am neither a language person nor a bridge person.  I can improve, but I am no longer going to hit my head against a wall trying to be something I cannot be.

Better I break down math walls and save some heads.  I’ll avoid options trading, too.

GO YOUR OWN WAY

March 2, 2017

Returning through the woods from the lava fields at Clear Lake, I came upon a lovely seasonal stream that was flowing downhill from a nearby hillside through the thick Douglas fir forest.  I had seen the stream on the way out a few hours earlier and decided I would stop on the way back to look more closely at it.  Had we been doing a loop around the lake, I might have stopped right then, for I’ve decided while hiking that if there is any question I should take a closer look or a photograph, I do it.

The stream had a snow bridge, nice flowing water, and when I looked a little more carefully in front of me, a few icicles as well.  The noise was pleasant, and the knowledge that in a few weeks this place would be dry reminded me how dynamic nature is.

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Tributary of Clear Lake, Oregon.

I posted those comments, and a good friend wrote that if I traveled more slowly I would see a lot more.  He’s not the first to tell me that, and he won’t be the last. He’s right, in a way. I think many have the sense I go through life in a big hurry and miss seeing things that others see.  Perhaps, it is true.  My father was always in a hurry, and I emulated him.  I have distinct recollections of those times in my life I was hurried to do things that weren’t a rush.  I became a hurried, harried practitioner, and the more I hurried, the less benefit I got from it.  Little I did seemed to me to be soon enough, right enough or timely enough.

What is seeing a lot more?  Why am I out in the woods anyway?  I go my own way, and to me, there is so much to see and so little time to see it.  When I spent the summer of 1992 in the canoe country of Minnesota, I wanted to see every lake I could.  It was impossible, of course, but I got into more than three hundred.  I saw plenty—eagles, otter, beavers, moose, bear—but a big reason that I went was to cover ground or water, lots of it, every day.  It mattered to me.  Why?  It did.  Sure, I could have paddled four miles and found inlets with all sorts of interesting plant and animal life.  Occasionally, I did that, but the long days under pack and paddle was part of fulfilling my need.  I have wonderful memories of the 18 mile day in a cold October rain, where I saw nobody for the fourth consecutive day, a day that took me to Little Saganaga Lake, or the push the following day down to Alice, where I encountered a blizzard, solo, in October.  That trip has stayed in my mind as one of my great ones.  I went six days without seeing another soul.

I did the 26.6 mile McKenzie Trail hike last year, setting a good pace and finishing it in under 9 hours of walking.  The purpose was to hike the whole trail, my kind of hike, and I enjoyed it.  I did the 23 mile Duffy Loop, which carried me through an awful stretch burned over by the B and B fire 13 years earlier, solo.  I won’t go back, but I know what is out there.  There is no blank spot on a map when I look at it.  On the Noatak River, from near the headwaters by Mt. Igepak to Lake Matcharak, I know what that country looks like.  I’ve trod the ground, paddled the water.  I saw a lot of griz, caribou, and even a wolverine.

To me, the hard work, the long distances covered matter.  I have awakened and seen Orion’s reflection on a lake, the sunrise through thick fog, watched a smallmouth jump out of the water with my lure, and watched an osprey dive deep into a lake to come away with a fish.  It all mattered.  Speed on the trail is something I like.  I’m not the fastest, never could be, never would want to be.  I process nature as I go, and I process very slowly.  It is often later when I realize what a special scene I had encountered.  I saw it, and I spent as much time as I wanted to.  Then I moved on.  On the out and back trips, I remember certain areas as special to view, and as I return, the processing primes me for these views.

I posted a greatly abbreviated summary of the above, and then realized I needed to continue.  I was on the Owyhee River last year, where distance covered was not under my control, except on day hikes, and one of those I got dropped by a the guide and three other clients.  I realized finally that I couldn’t keep pace, and I didn’t much like the uphill bushwhacking that we did.  I stopped, said no more, and turned towards the river, taking the best pictures I took the whole trip.  Had I kept going uphill, I would have seen more and from higher.  But I went, which is what mattered, and I saw something very nice, by myself.

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Owyhee River, Oregon

Those who say I miss too much often don’t share the my values.  I don’t tell people what they should or shouldn’t see.  One clear night on the Owyhee, we had an opportunity to see the night sky from one of the darkest places in the contiguous states.  Almost nobody was interested.  I am encountering people who are not interested in seeing the total eclipse this summer, and almost nobody viewed the transit of Mercury that I had in my telescope last May.  These are all interesting, beautiful, and to me special.

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Transit of Mercury, 9 May 2016; large sunspot in upper center, with Mercury at the 4 o’clock position.

I could go as far as to say that if one is not interested in any of these, one is going through life too fast. But I don’t.  I want others to go through life at their own pace, listening to Nature, listening to the Earth, but listening more to themselves, always learning.

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Sunrise over Odell Lake, Oregon; 2 March 2017

STATISTICS AT THE PINNACLE-PART 2

February 15, 2017

I’d look at the audience and find two rows where I saw 22 people.  “What do you think the probability in these 22 there is at least one pair with the same birthday?”   I’d ask that because most people would think it is quite unlikely.  Our brains tell us that, but our brains can deceive us, not only the brains of others.  Turns out, the probability is about 50%.  I might even start with 7 rows containing 70 people, where the probability is 99.9%.  “This does not make intuitive sense,” I would add, “but is easily proven by taking the approach of the probability that two people don’t have the same birthday.”  My statistics advisor did this in a class where I happened to be attending as a graduate student, and the first student’s birthday matched mine.  He said the look on the face of the students was priceless. “Why does this matter?  It matters because sometimes the way you think is wrong, flat out wrong!  Your brain lied to you.  Your brain said the likelihood of two people in the same room’s having the same birthday was small, very unlikely with 22 people, which is not true.  Our brains lie to us about speed, direction, and up and down. They worry more about improbable losses than probable gains, and how certain major events in our lives shape our thinking, even if they are very unlikely to ever happen agan.   The solution to the birthday problem is also a good life lesson:  figure out what you don’t want and whatever is left over is what you want.”

I’d talk about the lottery and expected values. People play the lottery, because eventually somebody wins.  We can predict quite accurately the probability that somebody will win.  “You see,” I’d say, “low probability events happen; they just happen with low probability.  Take the lottery with a 1 in 110 million chance of winning.  If 330 million tickets have been bought, the expected value of jackpot winners is 3.  That doesn’t mean that 3 will win, but it is expected.  We can easily, and I mean easily calculate the probability of 0,1,2,3, and 4 with a calculator and a few key strokes.  Three people nationwide might win.  Three people, in the entire country.  Yes, it has to be somebody.  But do you think it is going to be you?”

If you have a disease, you have certain symptoms.  Medicine is the study of people who have certain symptoms and tries to figure out the probability of their having a disease.  Physicians and others would do well to understand the idea that not all who test positive for a disease have the disease.  “Suppose a disease has a 0.1% prevalence in the population, or 1 in 1000 people has it.  We would do well to teach percentages early in math and often, too.  Suppose if you have the disease, you test positive for it 98% of the time.  If you don’t have the disease, you test negative for it 99% of the time.  You test positive.  What is the likelihood you have the disease?

What is important here is the background frequency of the disease.  The fact the disease occurs in only 1 of 1000 means that it is unlikely somebody who tests positive will have the disease: only 9%.  

Anybody remember W. Edwards Deming?  He was ignored here but found the Japanese receptive to his ideas about data analysis and optimizing systems.  The Japanese cleaned our clocks in the automotive industry before the Big Three caught on, not because Japanese cars were fancy, but because they worked.  There is an apocryphal story about how a Japanese company was told by an American buyer that no more than 4% of ball bearings should be faulty.  In the next shipment, 4 at the top of every box were faulty.  When asked why they were there, the company spokesman said, ‘you didn’t want more than 4% faulty.  Here they are, on top.  The rest are perfect.’

“Deming taught that variability could be classified as “common cause” (noise) and “special cause” (signal, important).  It was he who said that considering every variation as significant was not only wasteful, such “tinkering” made the process worse.  How often do we hear comparisons of say a murder number in a city being more than last year’s and hearing somebody pontificate an explanation?  Have you ever heard that this is common cause variability, and that if you want to lower the murder number, you need to address the entire system?

Samples have to be random, which is a way of saying everybody in the population, the group of people one is studying, has a definable non-zero chance of being chosen.  That doesn’t mean, ‘They didn’t ask me, so the sample is no good.’  It’s no good if the sample is done in the Deep South and the sampler wants to extrapolate it to the whole country.  One living in New York or Ohio never had a chance of being sampled.  Most people think large samples mean more useful results, but bias in a sample of 200 continues to be bias in a sample of 200,000 if the methodology doesn’t change.  The mathematics of sampling are not difficult to understand, and if one wishes to be a little less confident, 90% rather than 95%, and the margin of error for a dichotomous (yes-no) question allowed to rise to 8 or 9%, rather than 1-2%, the sample size needed decreases dramatically.

“I’ve worn out my welcome, but let me finish by mentioning the concept of 2-3 standard deviations from the mean, which most people take as being a significant outlier.  That all depends whether the curve is Bell-shaped.  If it is, then the probability of something more than 2 standard deviations from the mean is 5%.  But it is possible, depending upon the distribution of the data, to have up to 25% of items more than 2 standard deviations from the mean, hardly a significant outlier.  For 3 standard deviations, it is 3 in 1000 chance with a bell-shaped curve, but with some distributions, up to 11% of the observations.  I wonder how many who have been 2-3 standard deviations on the wrong side of the curve have been punished unjustly.  Five standard deviations?  4%.  It is 1/25, which is 5 squared.  This is known as Chebyshev’s Inequality.

“Finally, I would like to see students learn how to make good graphs instead of the ones I see today.  I would make Edward Tufte’s books required reading.  I would like to see more line graphs, dot plots, and box-and-whisker graphs with fewer multi-color pie charts.  I said I could go on for three more pages about statistics.  I have. Statistics has many day-to-day encounters, it is often used poorly, both by those who don’t know it and worse, by those who want to fool you.  It’s not lies, damned lies, and statistics but rather lies and damned people who lie using statistics.”